AS Monaco @ Venezia - April 12, 2025

Well, folks, get ready for a showdown that promises to be more than just a battle for three points; it’s when the bottom feeders of Serie A, Venezia and Monza, clash in what could very well be the deciding match for their survival in Italy’s top flight. With Venezia perched at 19th with a record of 3 wins, 12 draws, and 16 losses, and Monza languishing at the bottom of the table with a grim tally of 2 wins, 9 draws, and 20 losses, this match feels like a classic case of fighting for pride.

The betting lines are interesting—Venezia opened at 1.15 to win, Monza at 2.4, and the draw at 2.2. If you’re looking for value, the draw seems tempting. These teams are about as evenly matched as two teams could be at this point in the season. After all, both are desperately seeking a morale boost, and with their combined struggles, a stalemate feels like a safe outcome, particularly as the stakes are as high as they can get. One good omen for the ‘draw’ bet is Venezia’s last match—a 1-1 tie against U.S. Lecce—which suggests they can hold a line under pressure.

Now, let’s take a closer look at each side. Venezia has the edge of being the home team, and historically, there’s a certain weight that comes with playing under the watchful eyes of your fans. They’ve been dire all season, but they’ve recently seemed to tighten the screws, evidenced by their last match where they collectively managed to keep it from getting out of hand. A 1-1 draw tends to suggest they have the skills to hold a defensive shape when needed—will this translate into a win? Maybe, but I think the draw is calling.

On the flip side, Monza’s recent loss to Como saw a few goals go in—resulting in an OVER for totals bettors—which is a stark contrast to the rock-solid defense we saw from Venezia. They’ve struggled throughout the season and need to secure not just a draw but their first win in ages. If they come in swinging, this could lead to an open game, but do they have the firepower? Or will they flounder and lead to a repeat of their dismal form?

Given the stakes, it’s going to be a tense affair. My gut is telling me this match could very well end in a draw. The price on that line feels appealing for a match where neither team can afford a loss if they’re serious about avoiding relegation. The fans will be on the edge of their seats, the atmosphere will be electric, and in moments like these, you must trust your instincts—but I’d also recommend a touch of superstition. Maybe wear your lucky socks, or don’t wash that jersey just yet!

In summary, I’m seeing a score-line somewhere around 1-1 for this clash. A point each could keep both Venezia and Monza in the hunt, setting the stage for a dramatic sprint toward the end of the season. Place your bets wisely, keep your rituals intact, and let’s see how this unfolds!