Phoenix Suns @ Sacramento Kings - April 13, 2025

As the Phoenix Suns prepare to face off against the Sacramento Kings at Golden 1 Center, we can expect an intriguing matchup between two division rivals with contrasting recent performances. Oddsmakers have opened the Kings as -8.5-point favorites, which reflects their home-court advantage and slightly better overall record.

The Kings come into this game with a solid offensive output, averaging approximately 116.0 points per game on an efficient shooting percentage of about 47.9%. Their three-point shooting stands at around 35.6%, and they convert roughly 80.3% from the free-throw line, showcasing their ability to score in multiple ways. However, they’ve struggled recently, losing four out of their last five games straight up (SU). This inconsistency raises questions about their ability to cover such a hefty spread.

On the other hand, the Suns have had a rough stretch themselves, going just 1-8 SU in their last nine games. Despite this slump, they’ve managed to maintain a decent scoring average of approximately 113.8 points per game with nearly identical shooting percentages compared to Sacramento—47.9% from the field and 37.7% from beyond the arc. They also boast a solid free-throw percentage of around 81.2%. However, it’s worth noting that Phoenix has been less successful against the spread lately; they are just 1-9 ATS in their last ten outings.

When analyzing defensive metrics, Sacramento edges out Phoenix slightly in rebounding but has shown vulnerabilities in turnovers and fouls committed per game—averaging over 19 fouls and losing more than 13 turnovers each contest. Conversely, while Phoenix grabs fewer rebounds at about 42.4 per game and commits fewer fouls (around 18), they do struggle defensively with turnovers as well.

Given these statistics and trends leading into Sunday’s matchup, I anticipate that while Sacramento may win outright due to being favored at home—and despite having lost four of their last five—they will not cover the spread against a desperate Suns team looking for redemption after recent struggles.

Furthermore, I predict that this game will stay under the total set at 231 points based on both teams’ recent scoring trends; both squads have seen several unders lately—with Sacramento hitting under in eight of its last twelve games and Phoenix also trending towards lower-scoring affairs.

In summary: my prediction is for Sacramento to secure a victory over Phoenix but for the Suns to cover that -8.5 point spread as underdogs while keeping total points below expectations due to both teams’ current form and tendencies toward lower-scoring outcomes recently.