Venezia @ Empoli FC - April 20, 2025

As a former sports statistician, I find that numbers tell a compelling story in sports, especially when it comes to Serie A action. This Sunday’s clash between Empoli F.C. and Venezia is no exception, as both teams are in dire need of points to improve their standings. With both sides holding records of 4 wins, 12 draws, and 16 losses, there’s more at stake than just a simple win; pride and survival in Serie A could very well hinge on this encounter.

Currently, Empoli sits in 18th place, while Venezia is at the bottom of the table in 19th. Each team has been grappling with inconsistency all season, and a victory here would not only provide crucial points but also boost morale ahead of the final stretch of the campaign. The sportsbooks have opened the odds with Empoli at +110 and Venezia at +275, indicating a slight edge for the home side.

Empoli comes off a disappointing defeat, a comprehensive 3-0 loss against S.S.C. Napoli. That match underscored their struggles, as the defensive frailties were laid bare, and their inability to find the back of the net exacerbated the situation. The recent result certainly reflects the trend that has haunted Empoli all season — a failure to convert opportunities into goals, as well as a leaky defense which has conceded, on average, 1.7 goals per match when combined with their overall results.

On the other hand, Venezia’s fortunes have seen a minor improvement following their 1-0 win against Monza. While that victory did not generate many fireworks in terms of scoring (hence the UNDER for totals bettors), it showcased their resilience and ability to grind out results even in challenging circumstances. However, they too suffer from similar problems as Empoli, with a defensive record that leaves much to be desired. Statistically, both teams are among the lowest-performing in terms of goals scored per match, averaging only about 1.0 goals each.

Looking ahead to this matchup, we can expect a tightly contested affair, given the stakes. With both teams fighting for survival, a draw might be seen as a disappointing outcome despite the slight relief it could offer in terms of points gained. The odds for a draw are relatively low at +210, reflecting the expectation of a closely contested match.

Defensively, both Empoli and Venezia need to shore up their backlines. With both teams conceding around 1.6 goals per match, it’s likely that we may see a somewhat cagey approach, where both coaches will emphasize defensive solidity, especially early in the game. However, the pressure to secure a vital win could lead to some risk-taking as the match progresses.

In conclusion, while historical data suggests a lack of scoring may characterize this matchup, the reality is that both teams are desperate for points. Could we see a few more goals than expected, breaking their low-scoring tendencies, or will they cancel each other out? Regardless of the outcome, statistically speaking, expect a match fraught with intensity and desperate attempts at defining their season in the Serie A standings.