New York Mets @ Washington Nationals - April 27, 2025

Ah, the sweet smell of Sunday baseball! There’s nothing quite like it, and let me tell you, I’ve seen some wild action over the years. Today, we have the New York Mets taking on the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park. Let’s dive into this matchup, but first, allow me to don my lucky cap—can’t take any chances!

The Mets come into this game with a record of 19-8. They’re riding high after back-to-back shutout wins against these same Nationals. Their starting pitcher today is Tylor Megill, who has been nothing short of stellar this season with a 3-2 record and an impressive 1.09 ERA. With nearly 9.6 strikeouts per nine innings, he knows how to put batters away and keep runs off the board.

On the other side of the diamond is Mitchell Parker for Washington, sporting a 3-1 record and a more inflated ERA of about 4.7. While he’s shown flashes of brilliance—averaging around 8.6 strikeouts per game—it seems like he could be ripe for regression against a team as potent as the Mets.

When it comes to hitting stats, both teams are averaging about 4.2 runs per game; however, there’s a slight edge in favor of New York when looking at their average hits (7.72 vs 7.56) and RBIs (4 vs 3.96). The batting averages are comparable too with both hovering around .230—but I give that edge to experience on the Mets’ side.

Now let’s talk numbers: oddsmakers opened up with the Mets as -149 favorites while setting an over/under total at 8.5 runs for the game—a mark that feels just right considering how both teams have been trending recently.

Looking at recent performance trends helps paint a clearer picture here: The Mets are an impressive 8-1 in their last nine games and have shown an ability to win not just outright but also cover spreads with a solid record against the spread (5-2 in their last seven). Meanwhile, Washington has held their own at home lately—going 7-3 in their last ten games—but those offensive numbers need to improve if they want to compete today.

Considering everything I’ve observed and experienced betting over the years—especially on Sundays—I’m leaning heavily towards picking New York for this one again today after seeing them dominate recently. It feels almost foolish not to follow suit given how they’ve performed so far in this series.

As for that over/under line? I think we’re poised to exceed that total today despite Megill’s strong showing on the mound because I sense Washington will muster some offense especially playing at home where they’ve historically been better hitters.

So here it is: My prediction is that we’ll see another victory for New York while also going OVER that total line set by bookmakers! Get your bets ready folks; let’s ride this wave together!