Houston Rockets @ Golden State Warriors - April 28, 2025

As we gear up for the matchup between the Houston Rockets and Golden State Warriors at Chase Center, there are several key statistics and trends that could shape our expectations for this game. Oddsmakers have opened with the Warriors as -4.5-point favorites, but based on recent performances and underlying metrics, I believe the Rockets will not only cover the spread but also emerge victorious.

Starting with offensive output, both teams are closely matched. The Rockets average 113.9 points per game on a shooting percentage of 45.4%, while the Warriors score slightly less at 113.4 points per game with a shooting percentage of 45.1%. This indicates that offensively, both squads can put points on the board efficiently.

However, when we dive deeper into their three-point shooting percentages—35.1% for Houston compared to Golden State’s 36.3%—the difference is marginal enough to suggest that both teams can capitalize from beyond the arc if given open looks.

Defensively, we see a more pronounced contrast in rebounding and turnover rates which could influence possession battles throughout the game. The Rockets grab an impressive 48.5 total rebounds per game compared to Golden State’s 45.0 rebounds per game; this edge could provide Houston with additional second-chance opportunities—a crucial factor in close contests.

When it comes to turnovers, both teams exhibit similar tendencies; however, Golden State loses slightly more possessions (14) than Houston (13.9). This differential suggests that if Houston can maintain control of the ball while capitalizing on their rebounding advantage, they may be able to dictate tempo and scoring opportunities effectively.

Looking at recent performance trends reveals further insights: Houston has struggled recently with a record of just 1-5 against the spread over their last six games but holds a solid overall record of 53-32 SU this season—indicating they know how to win despite recent struggles against spreads.

Conversely, Golden State has been strong in terms of straight-up wins lately (18-7 SU in their last 25 games), yet they’ve faltered against spreads at home (1-4 ATS in their last five). This discrepancy raises questions about whether they can deliver under pressure when favored by nearly five points.

Moreover, considering both teams’ recent outings where totals fell below expectations—the last encounter ended at just 197 points—it’s worth noting that oddsmakers have set Monday’s total at just 202.5 points. Given these two offenses’ capabilities coupled with potential adjustments made after previous matchups, I anticipate an uptick in scoring leading us toward an OVER outcome tonight.

In summary: I predict that the Rockets will beat the Warriors outright while also covering the spread due to their rebounding prowess and ability to limit turnovers effectively—and expect a higher-scoring affair than projected as well!