The Sport Geek’s 10 Commandments for NFL Betting: Thou Shalt Win!

1. Thou Shalt Not Bet Beyond Their Means

Setting a strict budget and avoiding betting beyond your means is imperative. The NFL season is a marathon and not a sprint — it’s a long season from Week 1 to the Super Bowl. Ensure that you are following bankroll management guidelines this football season to make until the end.

We recommend limiting your weekly betting to a maximum of 5-10% of your season-long bankroll. As a rule, the money you deposit for Week 1 at NFL betting sites should last the entire year, even if you don’t win.

If you need to reload, then it’s probably a good indication that your bets are too large for your initial budget.

2. Thou Shalt Always Bet with Their Brains, Not Their Heart

Do not let your heart get in the way of making informed decisions. Simply betting on your favorite team is fine for fun, but if you want to extract value and earn a profit, it’s a failing strategy in the long term.

Rather, do the necessary research required on every game that week to find the best bets on the card!

3. Thou Shalt Not Be Tempted by Outdated Betting Systems

NFL betting trends and models are continually changing on a year-to-year and even a week-to-week basis. It’s important not to get caught up in outdated betting systems that no longer apply to the current landscape of the NFL.

The oddsmakers at the top online sportsbooks have already identified old trends and systems that worked in the past. The odds have been adjusted to account for these systems, so they are no longer effective for bettors.

For instance, fading teams traveling from the West to the East Coast previously used to be a profitable trend. However, that isn’t the case any longer in the NFL. Additionally, getting too attached to teams that had success early in the season for later in the year can be a detriment.

Also, ensure the trend you are analyzing has a large enough sample size. Because a team started 3-0 against the spread (ATS) doesn’t guarantee that it will continue in the ensuing weeks.

4. Thou Shalt Always Remember to Check Injury Reports and the Weather Forecast

Injuries have a significant impact on the odds of a game. Of course, missing key players can dictate the final score of matchups. Betting without carefully examining the injury report is dangerous!

This goes for analyzing the depth of each roster — injuries are common in football. A lack of depth can play a role during a game even if second-string players are missing.

With this in mind, it’s imperative to go over the entirety of the injury report leading up to game day.

Likewise, the weather can wreak havoc in games that are played outdoors, so make sure to keep an eye on the forecast before locking in your bets! This is especially true for over/under betting.

5. Thou Shalt Not Bear False Witnesses about thy Bet Slip

There are key numbers to be aware of in the NFL. With 3, 4, 6, 7, 10, and 14 critical in American football, it’s imperative to be aware of point spreads around this mark.

Final scores are often decided by a field goal (3 points), and touchdowns (6 points + 1 point XP). These key numbers have come into play more often than others in the NFL since the 2000 season.

Note 0, 3, 4, and 7 are the most common Super Bowl numbers — these can come in handy for your Super Bowl squares contests!

Additionally, TSG recommends placing more single bets over parlays and teasers. The house edge is lower on singles than on tickets that require multiple legs to win.

That said, they can be fun to play occasionally — just be aware of the key numbers for teasers.

6. Thou Shalt Always be Honest with Themselves

No one likes a bettor who embellishes their results and lies about how much they are winning. There are too many charlatans pretending they are high rollers who are lying to their peers, and most importantly, themselves.

If this sounds like you, it’s a deterrent from reaching your full potential as an NFL bettor. Getting too comfortable lying to your audience can ultimately result in being complacent with losing!

7. Thou Shalt Explore the Players and Matchups

Betting without analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of each squad is like skydiving without a parachute! Football teams generally excel in certain areas of the game and have faults elsewhere.

Generally, teams that struggle to stop the run will have issues against run-heavy offensive systems. In the same manner, bad teams in the secondary likely won’t fare well against teams that pass the ball effectively.

Although this doesn’t promise a winning bet, it will help steer you in the right direction. When it comes down to it, the better team typically wins the game, so try and look at the matchup holistically.

8. Thou Shalt Pay Attention to Line Movement Throughout the Week

The Sports Geek highly encourages bettors to monitor the opening odds for the following week. The bulk of the lines will be available on sports betting apps and sites Sunday evening.

If you are interested in placing your bets later in the week, it’s always a sharp move to take note of where the line has shifted since the opening price. Then, ask yourself what could be the cause!

There are some obvious explanations, including injuries, the weather, and public money backing one side.

Sometimes there is no clear reason aside from oddsmakers knowing something that bettors know. This will often manifest itself when the odds move in reverse despite the public wagering on the other side.

9. Thou Shalt Not Covet thy Neighbor’s Bets

Jealousy and envy are never good traits to have. It also applies to sports bettors who see their friends or others online winning big bets. Despite their success, ensure to stick to your strategy and bankroll management.

Make sure to congratulate them, but don’t allow it to cloud your judgment for your strategy. Don’t force any unnecessary bets that are outside of your budget.

While joining the ranks of the richest NFL owners is going to be difficult, savvy and patient bettors will be rewarded. Everyone’s situation is different, so stay focused on the goals that you’ve set out for yourself instead of worrying about others!

10. Thou Shalt Remember the Sabbath Day

Sunday is the holiest of days for diehard football fans. This is especially true for gamblers! NFL betting is the holy grail for sports bettors, with it being the most widely wagered on sport in the United States.

Placing money on games is the icing on the cake to make Sunday that much sweeter! However, remember that betting on the NFL should be fun.

To get the most out of your experience and the best opportunity to be profitable, always refer back to these 10 Commanders to stay on track!