2025 4 Nations Face-Off Betting Odds and Predictions: Will Canada Win?

Canada vs. USA: Over 5.5 (+100)

Team Canada and Team USA square off in a rematch for the 4 Nations Face-Off title at TD Garden. The Americans won the first contest in the round-robin stage by a score of 3-1.

Canada got off to a quick start with a Connor McDavid goal, but the US fought back to secure a two-goal win following an empty netter. The matchup started with back-to-back-to-back fights! It was a Summit Series moment for the Canadians and Americans.

The action slowed down after a fast-paced opening period. Team Canada struggled to generate a ton of action around Connor Hellebuyck, but expect them to respond with a stronger gameplan. The American defense forced everything to the outside in the defensive zone to foil Canada.

DYLAN LARKIN 🎯🎯 #4Nations pic.twitter.com/DF7g6QBAfk

— USA Hockey (@usahockey) February 16, 2025

Look for Hellebuyck to see more activity in his crease tonight. On the other side, I still don’t have the most confidence in the Canadian goaltending situation. Jordan Binnington just about gave away a 4-0 lead against Finland in their latest matchup.

Canada ultimately held on for a 5-3 win, but it was made interesting by a sloppy defensive and goaltending effort. In any event, Binnington should get solid goal support against a US team dealing with a flu bug in their locker room. Defenseman Quinn Hughes was looking forward to making the trip to Boston, but he hasn’t been medically cleared.

I’m anticipating a higher-scoring game than the first meeting. Also, an empty net goal may come into play tonight. Regardless of the lead, coaches tend to gamble more by pulling the goaltender early if they’re down. The over is well worth a look at even odds for your 4 Nations Face-Off betting picks!

Anytime Goalscorer: Matthew Tkachuk (+300) – USA

The Florida Panthers’ Matthew Tkachuk has been flying around the ice for Team USA in this tournament. He recorded 11 shots and two goals in two 4 Nations Face-Off matchups. Tkachuk missed the third game against Sweden, but the Americans had already clinched a spot in the finals.

MATTHEW TKACHUK HAS HIS SECOND GOAL NOW 🤯 pic.twitter.com/qHpzmZ8Lsv

— B/R Open Ice (@BR_OpenIce) February 14, 2025

It was in his best interest to skip the Sweden matchup due to an illness. However, he is reportedly ready to take the ice in the championship matchup tonight. Even before the tournament began, Tkachuk was in top form offensively.

He has notched 22 goals and 35 assists in 52 NHL outings overall. In his previous six games before the break, Tkachuk buried seven goals! He had a goal in every matchup from Jan. 29 to Feb. 8. After getting the Sweden game off and some rest, expect Tkachuk to come back with a full effort in the championship.

As one of the best 4 Nations Face-Off player props, Tkachuk’s anytime goalscorer odds are a strong option!

Anytime Goalscorer: Nathan MacKinnon (+220) – CAN

Big games call for big-time players to step up. I anticipate Nathan MacKinnon excelling against the Americans in the championship in Boston. MacKinnon ranks first in the NHL, with 87 points posted through the first half of the season.

He has scored 22 goals in 57 outings in 2024-25. Before heading on the break, MacKinnon was throwing everything at the net. He logged 29 shots on target in six efforts with the Avalanche. That included two goals, including against the Oilers prior to the break.

Nathan MaaaaaaacKinnon with a beauty of a goal! 😮‍💨 pic.twitter.com/qa2d5Or3a0

— NHL (@NHL) January 20, 2025

Look for MacKinnon to come through with a clutch performance for Team Canada. He is getting a great price to score at +220, so this is definitely a prop pick to keep in mind tonight!

Shots on Goal: Connor McDavid (CAN) Over 2.5 (-120)

As I mentioned, this is a game for elite players to step up and take things over. Oilers’ superstar Connor McDavid is likely to have a strong presence against the US in this pivotal showdown.

CANADA STRIKES FIRST 🇨🇦

CONNOR MCDAVID SCORES HIS FIRST OF THE #4NATIONS FACE-OFF 🚨 pic.twitter.com/MU2rqoDRMm

— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) February 16, 2025

He scored in the first meeting and tallied three shots on goal. In the must-win matchup versus Finland, McDavid came up huge again with a goal and three shots. It’s been a red-hot tournament for McDavid and it’s likely to continue in the championship.

In the regular NHL season, McDavid has posted 155 shots in 49 games. He’s notched 22 shots over the last five Oilers’ games, for an average of 4.4 shots per matchup! In such a critical contest, expect McDavid to come up with at least three shots.

Team Canada (+150)

If you like offensive fireworks, Team Canada is sure to deliver goals as well. Spearheaded by superstar center Connor McDavid, Canada shouldn’t have a shortage of scoring chances. In addition to McDavid, the offense features pure playmaker Nathan MacKinnon and dependable veteran Sidney Crosby.

Crosby’s “Golden Goal” at the 2010 Winter Olympics against Team USA is still embedded in the minds of Canadian hockey fans. Conversely, it isn’t a memory that American fans would like to remember. McDavid, MacKinnon, and Crosby combine for three potent lines at the center position.

The Pittsburgh Penguins’ captain recently had an injury scare and status for the 4 Nations was in doubt. However, Crosby will be good to go and on the ice for Team Canada. The left arm injury was bothering him, but the Canadians avoided a big loss.

Also, worth noting is that Vegas Golden Knights’ defenseman Alex Pietrangelo has opted out of the 4 Nations. He’s banged up and prefers to take the time off to prepare for the second half of the NHL schedule.

Nevertheless, the Canadian blue line is stout even without Pietrangelo. Drew Doughty steps in with a wealth of experience in international competition and big-time games.

Currently, MacKinnon leads the NHL in points with 87. Nikita Kucherov and Leon Draisaitl aren’t participating in the tournament, so that leaves McDavid at No. 4 in points this season. Neck and neck with him is Mitch Marner, with both holding 71 points through the first half. Eight Team Canada players are in the top 20 in points.

Our FIRST look at how Canada may line up for 4 Nation Face-Off 👀🇨🇦 pic.twitter.com/cugPCvxAoH

— B/R Open Ice (@BR_OpenIce) February 10, 2025

In short, if you want to include only the players playing in the 4 Nations Face-Off, Canada has the top 3 point-getters on their roster! Also, a two-way gritty player like Anthony Cirelli is a terrific addition to Team Canada. I’m also not concerned with the blue line, which includes offensive defenseman Cale Makar and the underrated Devon Toews.

However, the goaltending leaves a lot to be desired as opposed to the US. The St. Louis Blues’ Jordan Binnington and the Vegas Golden Knights’ Adin Hill are the top options between the pipes. Binnington holds a 2.89 GAA and 0.897 save percentage, while Hill currently sports a 2.63 GAA and 0.900 save percentage.

Team USA (+160)

The US brings a stacked team and a deep roster to the 4 Nations Face-Off. Despite a couple of snubs, the Americans have offensive firepower on all four lines.

The only problem the coaching staff has on their hands is getting the line combinations right. I expected Brock Boeser and Clayton Keller to make this roster, but regardless, check out the goal-scoring on the US.

Auston Matthews, Jack Eichel, Jack Hughes, Dylan Larkin, and J.T. Miller are all highly capable top-line centers. You put these elite playmakers with Kyle Connor, Jake Guentzel, and the Tkachuk brothers on the wings, and they’ll score goals without breaking a sweat.

A first look at Team USA 4 Nations lines, via @RussoHockey pic.twitter.com/9JC1LpH12m

— B/R Open Ice (@BR_OpenIce) February 10, 2025

Hughes, Eichel, and Connor are in the top 10 in the NHL in points this season. Additionally, the US is equipped with several quality defensive-minded forwards who will backcheck effectively.

The offense is backed by a strong defensive core, including 26-year-old Adam Fox. However, Quinn Hughes’ absence leaves a huge hole on the Americans’ blue line. The US needs to fend off a couple of dangerous offenses, and Hughes pulling out of the tournament is a big liability.

Winnipeg Jets’ starter Connor Hellebyuck leads the NHL with a 2.06 GAA and 0.925 save percentage. He has a terrific team in front of him, and if the US needs a timely save, Hellebuyck will be tough to beat! On paper, there are no clear weaknesses, but Hughes’ loss may have far-reaching implications.

Team Sweden (+450)

Sweden is the sneaky underdog of the tournament. Although Sweden’s 4 Nations Face-Off odds don’t suggest they’re a favorite, the team has a chance to outplay expectations in this event. Despite Sweden’s price slipping from +375 to +450, I’m confident in the country’s ability of making some noise.

Team Sweden has an uphill battle against the Americans and Canadians, but how can you write this roster off yet? It’s a veteran-laden team with Elias Pettersson, Mika Zibanejad, Filip Forsberg, and William Nylander.

Forsberg in particular is in red-hot form at the moment. The 30-year-old has scored 12 goals in 14 games since Jan. 7! If he and Nylander get hot at the right moment, Sweden is going to be in business. Additionally, I love the addition of Lucas Raymond to this roster.

Raymond is another player gaining a bunch of confidence at the moment. The Detroit Red Wings are red hot, and Raymond has been a driving factor.

Raymond has notched seven points in his last seven games, and a point in three straight games heading into the break. He has recorded a total of 59 points to lead the Red Wings.

⭐️ LUCAS RAYMOND ⭐️ pic.twitter.com/WOskHDAp1Q

— Detroit Red Wings (@DetroitRedWings) January 28, 2025

Along with the veterans, Sweden has some young, hungry talent with Leo Carlsson and Jesper Bratt. The 26-year-old Bratt is having a fine campaign, with 17 goals and 47 assists in 57 matchups. Carlsson adds solid depth and should be motivated to perform well.

As is usually the case with the Swedes, the experienced blue line should be rock-solid with Victor Hedman and Erik Karlsson on the defense. The latter has lost a step over the last few years, but I expect him to find an extra gear when representing his country.

The goaltending is also in good hands with three capable options. The New Jersey Devils’ Jacob Markstrom is Sweden’s top goalie. He’s been in great form, with a 2.20 GAA and 0.912 save percentage.

Sweden’s goaltending has a chance to steal the gold medal, but again, it will be difficult to compete with the US and Canada.

Team Finland (+900)

Finland is the most likely team to finish last in the event. At +900 odds to win the 4 Nations Face-Off, the Finnish squad has regressed significantly from the +650 available last month. The country isn’t expected to do significant damage. That said, Finland has talent on their roster and could pull off an upset or two in the round-robin stage.

The biggest positive for Finland is that they always play together as a team. There are no egos or one player who believes he is bigger than anyone else. Canadiens’ right winger Patrik Laine has gotten hot this season after it appeared he might miss an extended period of time.

Tu es un sorcier, Patty 🪄

You’re a wizard, Patty #GoHabsGo pic.twitter.com/tKd62fiRRp

— Canadiens Montréal (@CanadiensMTL) January 19, 2025

However, Laine returned to the ice ahead of schedule and has been a major contributor for the Canadiens. Laine has scored 12 goals and recorded six assists after overcoming an early-season injury. He is joined by elite playmakers including Sebastian Aho, Mikko Rantanen, and Aleksander Barkov.

Rantanen currently ranks sixth in the NHL in points, while Aho and Barkov are always threats to get hot. Aho is a two-way dynamo who can turn the game in his favor in a hurry.

Netminder Juuse Saros’ numbers aren’t fantastic on paper, but he will be on the ice with a strong defensive unit. He doesn’t have that luxury on the Nashville Predators!

However, Finland is down a huge starter defensively, as Miro Heiskanen will miss the tournament. This team would have had tremendous chemistry with the Dallas Stars’ Heiskanen and Esa Lindell together, though that plan has been disrupted. In any event, Niko Mikkola and Olli Maata are quality puck movers for the Finns.

I like some of the talent here, but my confidence has decreased without Heiskanen in the lineup. In such a wide-open tournament, Finland might be worth a small play at +900, though!