Sports Betting Math How To Make Money Sports Betting

Basics of Sports Betting Math

Understanding the math behind sports betting is the first step to placing effective bets. Here’s an example of a common moneyline bet that you’ll encounter in any sportsbook.

The Marlins are due to play the Cardinals in a regular season MLB game. BetOnline offers this moneyline:

• • Marlins: +134
  • Cardinals: -146

The odds show that you will win $134 profit for every $100 wagered on the Marlins, assuming they win. Meanwhile, you will need to stake $146 on the Cardinals to win $100 profit (again, assuming they win). This means that the Cardinals are favorites to win per the bookie’s analysis, because you will earn less profit for every $100 wagered, compared to the Marlins. The easiest way to think about sports betting math is to look at the number. The lower the number (expressing the payout odds), the more likely you are to win in the bookie’s vision, but your potential profit is also lower. Higher numbers carry greater profit potential, but are riskier bets.

How To Use Sports Betting Math

All successful sports betting strategies begin with establishing a knowledge base so you can deploy your strategy. By understanding the math behind sports betting, you can automate smart decisions.

Here are the foundation blocks we recommend you establish before you start betting:

1. Understand Betting Odds and Lines

It’s important to understand how betting odds work and visualize the likelihood of winning with these numbers. In sports betting, higher odds can be interpreted as a reduced likelihood of winning and, therefore, a riskier bet. The upshot is that your potential profit is higher.

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What is implied probability?

Implied probability is not mathematical probability (or true odds), but just another way to express the payout odds. In fact, this is the main principle of strategic sports betting – finding bets where you estimate their true odds as different from the bookie’s odds. Calculating true odds vs. implied odds can be tricky. Click here to read more about betting odds.

Example: Any odds above +100 carry a <50% implied probability, but are more profitable. Any odds below -100 have a >50% implied probability, but are less profitable. The problem is, betting sites also take a slice of each stake before a bet is even settled. This makes it common to see lines such as:

• • Golden State @ -110
  • Bulls +8.5 points @ -110

In this example, both teams are -110 to win, although the Bulls also have a +8.5 point advantage to level out the odds. Even though both outcomes may have a 50% chance of winning as true odds, your profit will be $91 for every $100 wagered, not $100, because of the vigorish. The implied probability for either of these lines is 110/210 = 52.38%, totaling 104.76%. Numbers above 100% reflect the bookie’s vigorish.

3. Calculate Expected Value

You can use your projected profit margin when calculating expected value in your bets. This is your average profit over the long run.

Example: If you want to win 55% of the time, in order to generate a small profit and cover the vigorish paid to your sportsbook, then you need to focus on negative odds:

• Odds of -122 carry an implied probability of just under 55% and pay out $82 as profit for every $100 staked.

• If you place 10 bets worth $100 each and you win all 10 bets, then you’ll earn $820. However, that probably won’t happen, and your realistic target will be to win at least 55% of the time.

• Winning 55% of the time means that you’ll earn a $451 profit from the won bets – $450 (from the lost bets) = $1 overall profit. Any additional bet won will increase your overall profit by $82.

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Or you can wager on positive odds and get a better outcome, but with higher risk:

• Odds of +122 carry an implied probability of 45% and pay out $122 as profit for every $100 staked.

• If you place 10 bets worth $100 each and you win all 10 bets, then you’ll earn $1,220. Again, that probably won’t happen, but your target is to win at least 45% of the time to have profit.
• Winning 45% of the time means that you’ll earn a $549 profit from the won bets – $550 = – $1 up overall (one additional bet won increases your profit to $121).

4. Understanding Basic Statistical Data

The final part of your sports betting foundation should focus on smart decisions based on historical data. The best online sportsbooks provide data banks for bettors that include:

• • Team Records & Form Guides
  • Head-To-Head Records
  • Player Stats
  • League Stats
  • Interesting Facts

The key is to spot historical trends and match them with the betting odds.

Example: If you bet on New York Giants @ Washington. The Commanders are -150 to win. However, you spot that the Giants hold the record for the most wins of any team against any other team (107). Historic data hints at another Giants win and their odds of +230 suddenly look worthwhile.

Putting Betting Math Into Action: Betting Strategies

Now that you have a strong foundation for placing bets and the basic math behind them, it’s time to apply betting mathematics to your choices. The basic principle is to convert odds into implied probability and then figure out:

Here are some key sports betting strategies that use math to help you spot valuable wagers that align with your foundation:

Value Betting:

Sportsbooks strive to give accurate odds, but don’t always get it right. If you spot odds at greater value than normal, then they might be worth backing, even if your win probability is still low.Example: The USMNT are +900 to beat Wales at the World Cup. Those odds read as a 10% implied probability, which seems crazy because the US team is undefeated this year. It is fair to assume that the team has a greater chance of winning than the odds suggest, so you back them.

Sharpening Your Handicapping:

You can use math to adjust for a team’s strengths and weaknesses.Example: If the Padres are -310 to beat the Marlins with a -1.5 handicap. That reads as a 75.6% implied probability, but you know the Padres are in form and have already won the series. If you nudge the line to -3.5, then the odds rise to -110.

Effective Money Management:

It’s important to keep an eye on your bankroll when betting on sports. A smart strategy is to:

• Make an affordable deposit
• Equally split the amount into the number of bets you plan to make (for example, by using betting units)

Doing this will save you from blowing your budget on a single bet and save you from spending your profit if you land a big payout.

Arbitrage Betting:

Sportsbooks try to offer the same odds as their rivals, but smart bettors can take advantage of price discrepancies. Arbitrage betting requires you to join more than one sportsbook and bet on opposite outcomes.Example: You could bet on the 49ers to beat the Rams at +200 on one site, and the Rams to win at +220 on another. No matter who wins, you’ll make a profit if you choose your stakes wisely.

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Tip: Read our arbitrage betting guide to master this betting strategy.

Live Betting Math:

Reacting to events in-play and timing smart bets is no easy task. It can take pro bettors years to master live betting. Using math certainly helps. By making quick value calculations, you can determine whether a bet is worth placing as the play unfolds.Example: You’re tracking the moneyline odds in a boxing match. The favorite has won the first four rounds and his moneyline odds have sunk. However, he looks tired and the underdog delivers a few big blows in the fifth round. The underdog has odds of +400 (20% implied probability) but they’re starting to come in. You figure the underdog has a 45% chance of winning this fight now, so they’re worth backing at +400.

Advanced Strategies for Making Money Betting On Sports

Spotting value, managing your money, and using arbitrage tactics are good starting points for new bettors. Advanced gamblers can use math to tap into more advanced betting strategies. Here are three advanced betting strategies to consider:

Tips for Maintaining Your Betting Math Strategy

Betting strategies only work if you use them correctly. If you get spooked by a series of losses and stray away from the strategy, then you risk losing a lot more money.

No strategy is foolproof, but relying on math is the best way to organize your betting for delivering profits.

To do this, you need to stay on track. We recommend keeping a ledger of your wins and losses, so you can track the trend and ensure you’re on the right trajectory. If you suffer a blip, then so be it.

Here are three foolproof ways to help you stay true to your strategy:

Discipline and Patience:

Any betting strategy requires patience. It can take a long time to earn small, regular wins and reach your targeted profit total. You can also blow your entire bankroll in an instant if you don’t stay patient and chase a windfall.Being disciplined and sticking to your strategy isn’t easy. One big mistake bettors make is to wager on their favorite team. It can be difficult not to back your team when you want them to win, but this can lead to bad decisions.

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TIP: Bet on a sport you know well, but stay away from betting on teams you love or hate. This will take the emotion out of your betting strategy.

Record Keeping:

Keep a ledger of your wins and losses, so you can spot trends and make adjustments to your betting strategy. Using betting math will help, because you can quickly spot what makes a promising bet, and where you’re on the verge of wasting your money.Some bettors like to keep handwritten ledgers of all their wagers, but a smarter option is to use something like Google Sheets or Microsoft Excel and create a spreadsheet to pull trends from.

Knowing When To Fold:

Everyone loses bets now and again. Sometimes knowing when to fold and accept defeat is the best option, instead of doubling down and making things worse. If you’ve bet $100 on the Bruins to beat the Oilers and they’re 8-0 down with 10 minutes remaining, then it’s time to say goodbye to that $100.Remember, a 55% betting strategy means you will lose 45% of the time. So long as you stay on top of the math and remain disciplined, then you stand the best chance possible of winning profit by the end.

Responsible Gambling

We encourage all players to gamble responsibly. Online betting should be viewed as a form of entertainment, not a source of income. Set loss and time limits, and budget your bankroll to avoid overspending. Responsible gambling isn’t about dampening the fun — it’s about ensuring the fun continues. Following these tips will help you enjoy betting while staying in control.

If you find yourself preoccupied with gambling or regularly exceeding your budget, consider the resources below for help:

Key Takeaways: How To Win Using Sports Betting Math

If you want to make money on sports betting, then understanding the math behind the odds is the first step to making a profit. By using math-based techniques, from calculating profit margins to hedging to arbitrage, you can maximize your chances of beating a sportsbook and winning more than you lose.

From basic money management to complex formulas, this guide has provided you with a useful reference when planning your betting strategy. Now you can make smarter bets at the top sportsbooks and try to beat the bookies. Good luck! We’re rooting for you!

About the Author

Joe Short

Content Writer

Joe is a UK-based journalist working primarily in sports. He splits his time between Belfast and Liverpool, and has a passion for horse racing. He is also an experienced gaming writer and always has one eye on his favorite baseball team, Baltimore Orioles. His dream is to attend the Kentucky Derby one year and pick a winner at Churchill Downs.

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