The Aaron Judge odds and props for 2025 feature options for home runs, hits, runs scored, RBIs, and hits. Judge, who won the American League MVP in 2022 and 2024, has to carry a big load this year as the Yankees lost Juan Soto. Can he do it?
I’ll examine five Aaron Judge player props in depth, and give you my best bets for how the Yankees’ captain will fare in 2025!
Aaron Judge Predictions
| AARON JUDGE PROP BET | ODDS | PREDICTION |
|---|---|---|
| Over/Under 50.5 Home Runs | Both at -120 | Under (-120) |
| Over/Under 110.5 Runs Scored | Both at -120 | Under (-120) |
| Over/Under 110.5 RBIs | Both at -120 | Under (-120) |
| Over/Under 160.5 Hits | Both at -120 | Over (-120) |
| To Break MLB HR Record (74+ HRs) | Yes (+5000) | No Bet |
Aaron Judge came up just short of the Triple Crown last year, leading the American League with 58 homers, and in RBIs with 144. But he finished third in batting average behind Kansas City’s Bobby Witt Jr., and Toronto’s Vladimir Guerrero Jr., with an average of .322.
Much is made of Judge’s postseason struggles, and he struggled as the Yankees lost to the Los Angeles Dodgers in the World Series. However, he’s not slowing down in the regular season. The captain of the Yankees should challenge once again in these major categories, and he’s favored in the AL MVP odds!
You’ll find these Aaron Judge betting odds at BetUS by navigating to Sportsbook > Baseball > MLB Specials > A Judge.
Aaron Judge Over/Under 50.5 Home Runs
Aaron Judge’s longest home runs of 2024 pic.twitter.com/muzUJvAiNu
— Talkin’ Yanks (@TalkinYanks) December 31, 2024
But it’ll be interesting to see how much protection Judge gets in the lineup. Fellow outfielder Juan Soto is gone, having signed the biggest contract in sports history with the New York Mets. Designated hitter Giancarlo Stanton battled injuries to both elbows last season, and likely won’t start the season with the Yankees.
Outfielder Cody Bellinger was acquired from the Chicago Cubs, but he hasn’t hit more than 30 homers since his 47-HR season in 2019. 37-year-old Paul Goldschmidt was signed to play first base, but he hit 22 homers last year and has been on the decline since 2023.
With all Aaron Judge odds being equal at -120 for this prop bet, I’m going to lean on the under. I think Judge won’t see the pitches he did last year with Soto in the lineup, which isn’t as strong around him. He’ll hit more than 40, but he won’t reach 50.
Aaron Judge Over/Under 110.5 Runs Scored
Juan Soto staring at Aaron Judge every time he gets on base for him pic.twitter.com/pCj9wnZbxv
— Kevin Marin (@TheKevinMarin) October 29, 2024
Now, Judge has Bellinger and Goldschmidt hitting behind him, along with re-signed second baseman Jazz Chisholm. There will be a lot of pressure on them to drive Judge home when he gets on base. I’m wary of Goldschmidt at his age, and that’s why I’m leaning towards the Under at -120 here.
Aaron Judge Over/Under 110.5 RBIs
2024 MLB RBI leader Aaron Judge knocks in his first two of #SpringTraining. pic.twitter.com/fH8xGj53Bi
— MLB (@MLB) March 1, 2025
Judge is projected to hit second in the lineup, but it’ll be interesting to see if manager Aaron Boone moves him down the lineup to give him more RBI opportunities. He was moved to third last season with Soto getting on base in front of him. But the Yankees’ lineup has many left-handed hitters, so Boone is moving him back to second, for now. Judge definitely prefers hitting third.
Aaron Judge on where he’d like to hit in the batting order this season:
“I’d love to hit third again, I told him that since the first day. But, I’ve always been about wherever you need me… I’ll be anywhere that helps shape this lineup the way we need to.” pic.twitter.com/WMJe3TtAh0
— Yankees Videos (@snyyankees) February 17, 2025
I’m taking the under here, although I’d be apt to change it if Judge moves back to third in the lineup, and whoever is in front of him shows the ability to get on base.
Aaron Judge Over/Under 160.5 Hits
🚨 Aaron Judge: Take vs. Swing
• This says more about his mentality than anything else.
• “Im up there to hit.” vs. “I hope I don’t get out.”
⭐️ It’s much easier to decide NOT TO swing than it is to decide TO swing. Be the hunter! pic.twitter.com/YIX9EHDbmz
— Baseball IQ (@BaseballIQ_App) February 15, 2025
I’ll actually take the over here at -120, regardless of where he is in the lineup. Judge has one of the best eyes in baseball, and while he might not hit over 50 homers, he’ll get on base.
Aaron Judge to Break Home Run Record (74+ Home Runs)
Two years ago today. Aaron Judge breaks the AL home run record with home run #62, cementing himself in baseball history forever. pic.twitter.com/BBCGe7cCwW
— The Yankee Report (@YankeeReport_) October 4, 2024
But Barry Bonds’ record of 73 homers in 2001 is safe for now. Judge won’t break his record, and as I’ve noted, he’s going to have to work hard just to get to 50 in 2025. So, I’m avoiding these Aaron Judge HR odds. Still, keep an eye on the start he gets off to this season.
Where to Bet on Aaron Judge Odds and Props?
I’ll summarize my Aaron Judge predictions for this season, and I think it might be a frustrating one for the Yankees’ skipper. Losing Soto might hurt Judge more than anyone on the Yankees.
- Under 50.5 Home Runs (-120)
- Under 110.5 runs scored (-120)
- Under 110.5 RBIs (-120)
- Over 160.5 hits (-120)
You can wager on these Aaron Judge props at BetUS, where you’ll receive a welcome bonus of 125%, up to $2,625 on your first three deposits! 100% up to $2,000 can be used in your sportsbook account, while the remaining 25% up to $625 is for their online casino. Simply use the promo code, JOIN125, and enjoy all the MLB betting markets at BetUS!
Welcome Bonus
125% up to $2,625
- Three decades of experience
- Big welcome bonus worth up to $2,625
- Thousands of sports betting options
