2025 Academy Awards Odds: Who’s Winning an Oscar?

Best Picture Odds and Pick

The Brutalist had taken over the top spot in the 2025 Oscars odds for Best Picture, with odds of -120. It was +175 a few weeks ago at offshore sportsbooks! But now it is back to +400!

Anora edged ahead before the Golden Globes, and had slipped to +175 from +450 after losing at the Globes. But it’s gaining momentum in the Oscars 0dds as of late February and is favored at -275 in a stunning turnaround! Currently, Anora has a 73.3% implied probability of winning for Best Picture.

The Brutalist presents some fantastic value betting after winning the Golden Globe. Emilia Perez should also be considered. The movie had a fantastic showing at the Golden Globes and will be highly regarded at the Academy Awards.

Nevertheless, the story about architect Laszlo Toth escaping the Holocaust and starting a new life in the United States carries more appeal for Best Picture. It focuses on the all-time lows of humanity and the rebirth of a new life in the US. The film scored a 93% rating on Rotten Tomatoes, and 90% on Metacritic.

Starring an elite cast including leading actor Adrien Brody, the nearly four-hour film has gained worldwide recognition and could continue to garner attention at the Academy Awards. There is now plenty of betting value on The Brutalist!

Best Actor Odds and Pick

Adrien Brody remains a -225 favorite to win the Oscar for Best Actor, shortening from -165. The Academy Awards odds moved for Best Actor after he scored the award at the Golden Globes. Brody now has a 69.2% implied chance to win.

In 2003, Brody captured the Best Actor Oscar for his leading role in The Pianist. Critics are calling for a similar performance out of the star, who is made for these types of roles.

The film is centered around Brody’s portrayal of Toth. He is responsible for carrying the story and does it brilliantly, according to moviegoers who viewed the film at TIFF.

Brody’s odds for Best Actor should shorten more before the Academy Awards in March. He had +100 odds to win in November, shifted to -165 and is now -225. In short, there is still value in Brody to win the Oscar at this price, but it’s moving quickly the other way!

Best Supporting Actor Odds and Pick

A Real Pain’s Kieran Culkin has taken a firm lead over the field for Best Supporting Actor. At -2000 odds, Culkin has an 95.2% implied probability of capturing the first Oscar of his career, up from 90.9% a few weeks ago.

In our last Academy Awards 2025 odds update in November, Culkin was a -500 favorite with an 83.3% implied chance. In short, his odds of winning are continuing to improve.

This is in large part due to his win at the Golden Globes to open the year. It would be another feather in the cap for Culkin, who won the Emmy Award for Oustanding Lead Actor in a Drama in January 2024 for his work as Roman Roy on Succession.

While I believe Guy Pearce is getting more recognition for his performance in The Brutalist, he appears to be overmatched by Culkin. For all the success and accolades that Culkin has received for his role in Succession, he is still searching for his first Oscar.

I expect Culkin’s long wait to come to an end on March 2. That said, there isn’t any value on his Oscars odds at -2000. So, I will pick him to win Best Supporting Actor, but -2000 odds aren’t worth betting on unless you’re going to include it in a parlay bet.

Best Actress Odds and Pick

There has been a significant shake-up in the odds for Best Actress over the last two months. Mikey Madison’s price has regressed from -175, to -130, to +200, +120 since losing at the Golden Globes. Meanwhile, Demi Moore’s odds have skyrocketed from +900, to +110, to -165!

It is difficult to win major awards in the horror genre, but Moore has a big chance here. The 62-year-old Hollywood veteran’s implied probability of winning moved from 10%, to 47.6%, to 62.3%!

The move happened after Moore upset the field at the Golden Globes. She is now a resounding favorite to win her first Academy Award! However, keep an eye on Madison’s odds after portraying exotic dancer Anora in Anora. She’s moved from +200 to +120, so there is a chance!

Beyond her excellent performance in The Substance, Moore is a well-liked actress around Hollywood, who has been waiting a while for her time in the spotlight at the Academy Awards.

The Academy could feel compelled to give the nod to Moore in a race they find difficult to call. The way I see it, the best value on betting apps for Best Actress is Moore at -165 odds!

Best Supporting Actress Odds and Pick

Zoe Saldana’s 2025 Oscar odds have shifted since the Golden Globe winners were announced. She was a massive -800 favorite, after going into this year as a -200 favorite before she won the Globe for Best Supporting Actress. Saldana is now priced at -1500 to win her first Oscar!

Danielle Deadwyler and Jennifer Grey opened as +230 betting favorites back last March. However, both Grey and Deadwyle have fallen off the board after failing to get nominated.

Emilia Perez was one of the big winners of the Golden Globes, and I suspect that it will continue at the Academy Awards. It has an outside chance of winning Best Picture, but the more realistic result is Saldana for Best Actress.

Zoe Saldaña wins the #GoldenGlobe for best performance by a female actor in a supporting role in any motion picture. https://t.co/24rsV7o7AU pic.twitter.com/SNhIVTUhp0

— Variety (@Variety) January 6, 2025

Saldana closed at -225 to win at the Golden Globes, which looking back, wasn’t large enough odds. Her portrayal of Rita Mora Castro in Emilia Perez was beloved by the Globes, and it should carry over to the Academy in Hollywood.

There is no value in -1500 odds, but consider Saldana for your Oscar picks if you are in an Academy Awards pool or if the price dips! Similar to Culkin, you can consider her for parlay bets.

Best Director Odds and Pick

The Brutalist director, Brady Corbet, had established himself as the clear favorite to win the Oscar for Best Director. Last month, Corbet and Sean Baker were co-favorites to win the award at +115.

Corbet had improved to -500, which suggested a 83.3% implied chance of winning after he took home the Golden Globe in early January. But now, Corbet sits at EVEN odds! Baker has snatched the favorite status in these 2025 Oscars odds at -140, which carries a 58.3% implied win probability!

Jacques Audiard sits at +2000! The French director helmed Emilia Perez, which won four awards at the Golden Globes.

Nevertheless, the Academy Awards typically don’t like directors of musicals, so Baker is a deserving favorite.

Brady Corbet wins Best Director – Motion Picture for #TheBrutalist at the 2025 #GoldenGlobes and sends his condolences to Aubrey Plaza and Jeff Baena's families. pic.twitter.com/a9Vg3Rols7

— The Hollywood Reporter (@THR) January 6, 2025

In short, Corbet should follow up his win at the Golden Globes with another big score at the Oscars! The Brutalist is set to dominate, including Corbet for Best Director. I’ve thought he would win all along, and now at EVEN odds, there is betting value after winning the Globe. Grab this quick before the Best Director lines shift again before March 2!