Americana Music Association Awards Odds and Prediction

The odds for this category are very close, ranging from +225 for the favorite, Sierra Ferrell’s “Trail of Flowers” to +400 for Brandy Clark’s self-titled album.

“Weathervanes” by Jason Isbell and the 400 Unit, is also valued at +400. It won the Grammy Award for Best Americana Album in February 2024, beating out Clark’s album for his third win in the category.

Isbell has won this particular award three times, including once with his band for “The Nashville Sound” in 2018. All three of those were produced by Dave Cobb. However, “Weathervanes” was produced by Isbell himself.

Clark’s album received a Grammy nomination, which is important to consider. The self-titled album was also produced by Brandi Carlile, a 10-time Grammy winner, who has never won this award. It should be said, Carlile is a two-time winner for Artist of the Year at these awards.

Tyler Childers’ “Rustin’ in the Rain” did well on the charts, going as high as 10^th on the Billboard 200, as well as fourth in the US Top Country Albums chart.

Sierra Ferrell’s “Trail of Flowers” was released to rave reviews in the bluegrass world, and while it did fine on the charts, it mostly did well in the United Kingdom, as did Clark’s album. “The Past is Still Alive” from Hurray for the Riff Raff also did well overseas.

I’m going to take the value with “Weathervanes” at +400 to give Isbell a fourth win for Album of the Year here. The artist does well in these awards, so winning this tight race at these odds is pretty good.

Ferrell (+225) and Childers (+300) are also up for Artist of the Year, along with Charley Crockett (+350), Allison Russell (+375), and Noah Kahan (+400). Kahan is the name you probably recognize, as he was up for Best New Artist at the Grammy Awards, as well as the People’s Choice Awards. He also made an appearance on Saturday Night Live in December 2023.

Crocket was nominated for this award, as well as Album of the Year for “The Man from Waco”, and Song of the Year” for “I’m Just a Clown”, all in 2023. He lost all three nominations. His new album, “$10 Cowboy” might be better than his last. Russell was nominated for this award, along with Crockett and Ferrell, in 2023, but all lost out to Billy Strings. Russell’s “The Returner” was also nominated alongside Isbell and Clark for Best Americana Album at the Grammy Awards.

Again, I’ll take the value and go with Noah Kahan at +375 at BetUS. He’s made a major name for himself while bringing Americana music to the masses, and that should be enough for him to win in his first Americana Music Award nomination.

Similar to the first two markets, Duo/Group of the Year odds are extremely close between the five options. The Milk Carton Kids (+225) have been nominated for four Grammys, and they won this award in 2014. The Black Pumas (+300) have been nominated for seven Grammys, including Best New Artist in 2020, and Album of the Year in 2021 for their self-titled debut.

The Turnpike Troubadours (+350) are right in the mix at online sportsbooks, and they’re nominated for their first Americana Music Award. The War and Treaty (+400) has won this award the last two years, and they were nominated for Best New Artist at the Grammys in February, despite releasing their fourth album in March 2023. Larkin Poe (+400) are alongside The War and Treaty, and they’re up for their first award.

Again, I’m looking at the betting value at BetUS for this award, and I’m taking The War and Treaty to win this award for the third year in a row. Their album, “Lover’s Game”, was one of the biggest albums of 2023 and getting nominated for a Grammy was a massive deal for them. Let’s go with The War and Treaty here.