On Saturday, April 22, Bellator will be live from Honolulu, Hawaii, for Bellator 295: Stots vs. Mix. The main event of the evening is an interim bantamweight title fight between the champ Raeufeon Stots and Patchy Mix. This is also the final of the Bellator bantamweight grand prix tournament.
As of this writing, there are more than a dozen fights scheduled for this MMA event. You can bet on the full Bellator 295 card at the best MMA betting sites.
Bellator 295 Odds
Our Bellator predictions feature two parlay picks and only one clear upset. The majority of these picks are favorite moneylines, but be aware of the low confidence picks on competitive fights. All odds are courtesy of Bovada.
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
| Raufeon Stots | -145 |
| Kana Watanabe | -145 |
| Aaron Pico | -800 |
| Kyoji Horiguchi | -250 |
| Yancy Medeiros | -450 |
| Mads Burnell | -143 |
| Adli Edwards | +188 |
| Sumiko Inaba | -165 |
| Diggs vs Almeida: Over 1.5 Rounds | No Odds Yet |
| Aalon Cruz | -130 |
| Davion Franklin | -480 |
| Ilara Joanne | -205 |
| Alexey Shurkevich | -220 |
Bellator 295 Predictions
We see a two-fight parlay for Aaron Pico and Yancy Medeiros, but fans of those fighters may tack on Horiguchi or Davion Franklin for a stronger payout.
Patchy Mix +115 vs Raufeon Stots -145
At 19-1, Stots is fresh off a split decision over Danny Sabatello. This bout solidifies his place as the Bantamweight champ at Bellator, with 17-1 Patchy Mix as the only person left to question his dominance in the division.
Mix’s 2nd round finish of Magomed Magomedov last December was an even more dominant showing than Stots’ decision over Magomedov in 2021.
Stots’ only loss is to Merab Dvalishvilli (now in the UFC #1 contender spot) back in 2017. Mix lost a recent bout to Juan Archuleta that revealed some weaknesses in his striking game. In fact, some fans feel that Mix will get exposed again.
The road to gold is almost complete 🏆@RaufeonStots and @TeamMixMMA have looked 𝕦𝕟𝕤𝕥𝕠𝕡𝕡𝕒𝕓𝕝𝕖 in the #BellatorBWGP. Only 1️⃣ can be crowned Grand Prix Champion. #Bellator295 | Sat, 11pm ET/8pm PT | @SHOsports pic.twitter.com/nVf6AG0uPQ
— Bellator MMA (@BellatorMMA) April 15, 2023
While we’ve considered the over for this fight, both men have early finishes against top contenders at Bellator. The Bellator 295 odds for Stots are priced right for a near double your money bet on the champ, so we’ll have to stick with his money line, but it’s nothing we’re adding to a parlay.
Ilima-Lei Macfarlane +110 vs Kana Watanabe -145
After losses to Velasquez and Kish, Macfarlane finds herself playing gatekeeper against the rising tide of Kana Wantanabe. Set back by a loss to Carmouche by TKO in 2021, Watanabe is now 1-1 after a 2nd round triangle choke of Denise Kielholtz.
Watanabe has upset three fighters as the underdog at Bellator and Rizin, ranging from +175 to +240. She’s consistently underrated, mainly because of her focus on submission work. She has moments of stand-up genius, like her first-round right hook knockout of Sugiyama at Rizin.
Macfarlane is a handful, and her submission work is truly more proven than Watanabe’s. Her superfight win over Jessica Eye and her 2017 win over Ducote by armbar at Bellator 186 puts her as one of the more dangerous submission fighters in Bellator.
However, Watanabe has better hands and has withstood the test of time, with fewer competitive bouts and a slower rise to contention. We see a Watanabe decision win, so look for that prop later this week.
Aaron Pico -800 vs James Gonzalez +475
An unfortunate dislocated shoulder ended the six-fight winning streak of Aaron Pico. Now 10-4, Pico faces the 10-5 James Gonzalez, a minor step down from the competition he’d been facing in his last three bouts.
Gonzalez has wins over quality fighters, but has come up short against UFC level talent and most recently Ring of Combat champion Phil Caracappa.
Gonzalez needs to win top position to beat top fighters, and Pico is a far superior defensive grappler than James. Expect to see failed shot attempts early as Pico looks to land uppercuts and knees against the advancing Gonzalez. The Pico by TKO prop should be available Friday or you can parlay the money line.
Kyoji Horiguchi -250 vs Ray Borg +190
Borg has delivered on our expectations for him since leaving the UFC. He’s 3-0 outside the promotion and taking his first fight in Bellator against Rizin champion Kyoji Horiguchi, who is now 3-3 in his last six bouts.
Horiguchi is one of the more interesting kickboxers at flyweight. His 7-1 run in the UFC was impressive, losing only to Demetrious Johnson by fifth round armbar.
Our only question is age, with Borg at 29 and Horiguchi at 32, how much is Horiguchi feeling his speed change? It cost him big against Pettis and Asakura, both fighters knocking him out in 2019 and 2021.
Ultimately, Horiguchi is a good bet. He’s a superior striker to Borg . Additionally, he’s had more success at the UFC level and, unless Borg can prove to be a better grappler than 90% of Kyoji’s opponents, we’ll see a forced stand up battle where the Japanese star will win.
Charlie Leary +300 vs Yancy Medeiros -450
After a brutal four fight losing streak, Medeiros was cut from the UFC. He’s 1-0 at Bellator, but hasn’t fought in 12 months. He’s facing 17-13-1 Charlie Leary, a forty-year-old fighter from Team Crossface of England.
This is what we call a ‘warm up fight’ in the business. Medeiros was injured and is now being handed a highlight reel win to keep an ex-UFC fighter active at Bellator. This is as close to a sure thing to add to your Pico parlay as Bellator 295 has to offer. Bellator 295 odds for Medeiros are still in the value bet range, offering a 1:5 return on your cash.
Justin Gonzalez +115 vs Mads Burnell -143
In Mads Burnell, Justin Gonzalez (14-1) faces the toughest opponent of his career to date. As a fan of Burnell’s slip and duck boxing, coupled with highlight ground work, we are likely blinded to the competitiveness of this fight. Burnell lost his last two and we were convinced he would win both.
Mads Burnell gets it done!
Fast as lightning! he locks up the choke for the submission win ⚡️ #Cw106 pic.twitter.com/8L6utORMxl
— Cage Warriors (@CageWarriors) June 29, 2019
Gonzalez lost a much closer decision than expected to Pico back in 2021, then went on to upset Kamaka and Andrew Fisher in decision wins. The lanky kid understands pacing and takes the majority of his professional opponents to decision. Burnell will look to find top position, but Gonzalez rarely gets taken down.
This is a competitive fight and Bellator 295 odds don’t make it worth the risk. We’re calling a low confidence win for Burnell, likely by decision.
Adli Edwards +188 vs Kai Kamaka III -240
Kamaka has seen a wild three years. The active Hawaiian fighter has gone from Bellator to LFA champion in 2020, to a four fight UFC contract, right back to three fights in Bellator. His opponent Adli Edwards, is a tall submission finisher that was knocked out by Pico in the 3rd round of their fight 12 months ago.
Watching fight tape, we see Kamaka consistently struggling with taller fighters. He likes to throw the overhand against them, but gets stuck in his ways when that strategy fails. We see Edwards finding top position and that’s where Kamaka has lost the majority of his fights (by finish or control time).
Sumiko Inaba -165 vs Veta Arteaga +125
Undefeated Sumiko Inaba comes in as the obvious favorite over Veta Arteaga. With a 5-0 pro record, Inaba hasn’t seen a fighter give her trouble since 2016. However, Inaba lacks the experience of fighting veteran opponents. That’s exactly what Arteaga is.
Arteaga has faced Bellator champion Macfarlane, alongside a host of big names in the women’s flyweight division. Although she’s considered a boxer, it’s Arteaga’s clinch grappling game we’re most worried about. Inaba should win a decision, out-pointing and outworking Arteaga, but don’t place a huge bet on it.
Keoni Diggs -185 vs Weber Almeida +140
In another highly competitive bout, Diggs and Almeida are on the rise in Bellator and facing each other in what could be a title contention bout. Both are finishers, but have seen a string of decisions as they face higher ranked fighters, at a rate of 66% in their combined last six fights.
We’re hesitant to call a money line, and instead we’re looking to the Over 1.5 Rounds betting pick. Diggs has multiple finishes late in the second round, and Almeida’s one punch power remains to be seen against ranked Bellator talent.
Aalon Cruz -130 vs Bobby King +102
At 39 years old, It’s wild that Bobby King can still get a win over Keoni Diggs and stay competitive with fighters like Dadzhi Rabadanov. He’s a lightweight tank that hasn’t shied away from challenge. Aalon Cruz had an 0-2 UFC showing, but is now 2-0 in Fury FC over the last year.
Cruz’s Bellator debut isn’t an easy one. On paper, he should have defeated King, but the UFC put Cruz’s chin on notice. He’s been knocked out twice in the last three years and submitted twice in his UFC career. This isn’t an easy introduction to the division. However, it’s another fight where Bellator 295 odds accurately represent the competitiveness.
Davion Franklin -480 vs Kasim Aras +350
At 7-1, Aras is seeing a big underdog status. Franklin is from the recent set of brilliant fighters out of Jackson-Wink MMA. He lost to Bellator’s Marcelo Golm in a sudden jump to the crown after a win over Said Sowma. Now, he takes a step back to welcome Aras, who is a native German wrestler that put his local competition to shame.
Franklin has all the tools for a definitive win. We would consider the Franklin by Finish prop bet later this week, but for now, we’ll but his moneyline as a value bet with a ⅕ return.
Bruna Ellen +155 vs Ilara Joanne -205
Our favorite is 2-2 over her last four fights, winning over Kielholtz and Alejandra Lara in the best showings of her career. Ellen is now 3-2 in her last five, but has lost to some of the divisions best including Macfarlane and Velasquez.
Ellen has only one stoppage in her pro career, and her style is to win via decision. She’s fought some serious talent in spite of the fact that her best win is over the relatively unknown Elina Kallionidou. Joanne has superior power and BJJ, but lacks in technical kickboxing exchanges.
It’s a close fight, but Joanne should pad her record with another win, leaving either Macfarlane or Velasquez as the obvious next choice.
Alexey Shurkevich -220 vs Masayuki Kikuiri +165
A sambo fighter, Shurkevich doesn’t have the talent as some of his Dagestani contemporaries. He mostly relies on his knockout power and little else. Shurkevich’s 8-2-1 challenger is an import from the Pancrase organization, which is a promotion who’s fighters haven’t done well in the larger Rizin/ONE Championship universe.
Shurkevich has the power to stop Kikuiri, who’s been knocked down multiple times and knocked out before. Not only does he have a wider range of experience, but Kikuiri hasn’t really faced a high quality wrestler of any discipline.
Bellator 295: Stick to the High Confidence Picks
There are enough high confidence picks on this card that there is no reason to gamble on the close fights. When you’re making your selection, consider changing our closer moneyline picks to more specific prop bets later in the week, such as over 2.5 rounds for Aalon Cruz.
In competitive bouts like Burnell vs Gonzalez, you’re better off going big on the Adli Edwards upset than spreading your money too thin.
