You should probably focus your Belmont Stakes 2024 odds analysis on the underdogs after two upset wins in the first two events from the Triple Crown!
The top horse racing betting sites have struggled to get it right so far this season, so let’s try to see if there’s value up for grabs in the latest odds for Belmont Stakes.
Due to renovations currently underway at Belmont Park, the 156th edition will take place at Saratoga Race Course. As a result, the distance of the race will be the same 1.25 miles as the Kentucky Derby.
Head below to check out the latest odds, favorites, analysis, and Belmont Stakes prediction!
Belmont Stakes 2024 Betting Odds
The following Belmont Stakes winner odds are courtesy of BetUS:
| HORSE | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Sierra Leone | +150 |
| Mindframe | +250 |
| Seize the Grey | +550 |
| Mystik Dan | +650 |
| Resilience | +900 |
| Antiquarian | +1200 |
| Honor Marie | +1200 |
| The Wine Steward | +2500 |
| Dornoch | +2500 |
| Protective | +4000 |
Sierra Leone (+150) is the favorite to win the 2024 Belmont Stakes. Chad Brown’s horse has witnessed his price shorten from +225 to +150 since the Belmont Stakes odds were released two weeks ago.
Currently, Sierra Leone has a 40% implied chance of winning the 156th running of the Belmont Stakes. Mindframe (+250) has been inserted as the second most likely winner.
Todd Pletcher will point Mindframe to the Belmont Stakes after he wasn’t initially included in the betting markets. Meanwhile, Fierceness is out of the Belmont Stakes after opening with the second-best odds to win.
2024 Belmont Stakes Favorites
Sierra Leone remains atop the Belmont Stakes odds board at sports betting sites. His price has only improved since the Preakness Stakes. With Fierceness skipping the race, Mindframe is Sierra Leone’s newest closest threat!
Let’s dive into the Belmont Stakes 2024 favorites and a look at each horse’s chance to win:
Sierra Leone (+150)
- Owner(s): Peter Brant, Brook T. Smith, Mrs. John Magnier, Michael Tabor, Derrick Smith, Westerberg Racing
- Trainer: Chad Brown
- Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
- Stakes Wins: 2
Perhaps if Sierra Leone had a few more inches, we would be talking about him as the Kentucky Derby winner. And, who knows, maybe he runs in the Preakness Stakes and has an opportunity to win the Triple Crown.
Sierra Leone was a nose away from winning the Derby, but Mystik Dan had just enough. The two-time graded stakes winner did not draw a favorable post position. He started out of the No. 2 gate, a position that hasn’t won since 1978!
Going into the stretch, Tyler Gaffalione had to bring Sierra Leone wide to find a path to victory. With everything working against Sierra Leone, he came just shy of winning. You could argue this was the best horse in the race despite placing 2nd.
At the wire! Mystik Dan wins the 150th Kentucky Derby. pic.twitter.com/2aiutu2mWz
— Kentucky Derby (@KentuckyDerby) May 4, 2024
Sierra Leone hasn’t finished worse than 2nd in any of his five starts. The horse’s gone 2nd, 1st, 1st, 2nd, and 1st entering the Belmont Stakes. In his biggest win, Sierra Leone defeated Just a Touch by 1 ½ lengths in the $1 million Toyota Blue Grass (Gr. 1).
This three-year-old colt has shown continual improvement. In Sierra Leone’s Risen Star Stakes (Gr. 2) win on February 17, he posted a speed figure of 98. That skyrocketed to a 107 in the Blue Grass and then 109 in the Derby.
Sierra Leone drew the No. 9 post position for the Belmont Stakes. He’ll start next to the horse with the second-shortest odds and largest rival in this race. With only ten horses expected to run, post position will not hurt Sierra Leone as much as it did in the Derby.
Sierra Leone’s odds on the Belmont Stakes appear to be a good price at +225, so he is definitely one to shortlist!
Mindframe (+250)
- Owner(s): Repole Stable and St. Elias Stables LLC
- Trainer: Todd Pletcher
- Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
- Stakes Wins: 0
Mindframe is a lightly raced three-year-old with a ton of potential in Pletcher’s stable. He is making his stakes debut at the Belmont Stakes on Saturday. Pletcher feels confident enough for Mindframe to jump to a Grade 1 race from an allowance optional claiming event.
The online betting apps and the public certainly agree that Mindframe is ready to roll. He enters the Belmont Stakes with a win in his first two assignments. On March 30, Mindframe debuted in Florida at Gulfstream Park.
Mindframe makes bold prediction.
“I am going to win the f$&kin Belmont Stakes!!!!!”
😂 😂 🤣 pic.twitter.com/4ZIme5rb8z
— Repole Stable (@RepoleStable) June 4, 2024
Mindframe cleared for a whopping 13 ¾ length win over One Sharp Cookie as the favorite in a $89,000 event. He followed up for another win on Derby Day at Churchill Downs. Pletcher watched as Mindframe beat Cornishman by 7 ½ lengths in a $127,000 race.
His speed figures for the two races were clocked at 108 and 99. Given Mindframe’s weak competition in those starts, it’s possible that Irad Ortiz Jr. could have gotten a little more out of him.
Mindframe was geared down in the stretch in his latest win, so he could have topped out at faster than 99 if he was challenged! The lack of experience against Grade 1 competition is a concern, but Mindframe should challenge Sierra Leone in the stretch run.
Seize the Grey (+550)
- Owner(s): MyRacehorse
- Trainer: D. Wayne Lucas
- Jockey: Jaime Torres
- Stakes Wins: 2
Roughly 2,500 owners of Seize the Grey celebrated a longshot Preakness Stakes win. The D. Wayne Lucas trainee closed at 9-1 odds but ran like one of the favorites.
Seize the Grey drew away from the field for a 2 ¼ length win over Mystik Dan. He owned a half-length lead at the ¼ pole and never gave the lead away. When you thought he would drop back, Seize the Grey kept coming.
Seize The Grey WINS the 149th Preakness Stakes! 🌻 pic.twitter.com/Uqyb5nXPuS
— NBC Sports (@NBCSports) May 18, 2024
Luckily for us, I backed Seize the Grey as a sleeper pick at +1200 days before Preakness Day. Am I interested in Seize the Grey against a more competitive field at +525 in the Belmont? I am not so sure there is value in placing a win bet on him here!
It was the first time in Seize the Grey’s career that he notched a 100+ speed figure. He was clocked at 101 after going 93, 91, 93, and 90 in his previous four events.
In the toughest race of his career, Seize the Grey finished 7th in the Toyota Blue Grass (Gr. 1). Even if he posts a 101-speed figure again, it likely won’t be enough.
As a fan of the horse, I’d like to see him win. However, for betting on the Belmont Stakes online, consider looking elsewhere.
2024 Belmont Stakes Sleepers
My Belmont Stakes best bets include a few sleepers on my card. It paid off in the Preakness Stakes, as Seize the Grey was a winner at +1200. After dark horses won the Derby and Preakness, are we looking at another winning the final leg of the Triple Crown?
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Pletcher entered Antiquarian into the Belmont Stakes following a strong performance in the $200,000 Peter Pan Stakes (Gr. 3) on May 11. Antiquarian has shown solid form and improvement throughout his career.
His speed figure has improved over each subsequent race in his career: 74, 84, 92, and 101. In Antiquarian’s biggest test to date, he finished 6th in the $1 million Louisiana Derby (Gr. 2). Despite the disappointment, the horse showed considerable better form in his next event.
If Antiquarian continues along this trend, he should have an opportunity to strike in the stretch run. He’s worth considering as an outsider contender for your Belmont Stakes 2024 betting picks at +1200.
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Danny Gargan’s Dornoch was a popular longshot horse racing strategy for the Kentucky Derby. However, he faltered with a 10th-place performance at Churchill Downs.
Nevertheless, Dornoch’s previous results showed some promise. He won the $400,000 Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes (Gr. 2) by 1 ¾ lengths, and then had a positive trip in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (Gr. 1) for 4th.
Dornoch’s odds to win at Belmont have shifted slightly from +2400 to +2500 since opening. There isn’t much of a discernible difference as far as his probability of winning is concerned, but Dornoch is a sharp value bet at +2500 regardless.
Belmont Stakes 2024 Prediction and Best Bets
Let’s conclude my 2024 Belmont Stakes predictions with the best bet to win. Sierra Leone was my top pick to win the Kentucky Derby. While the win bet did not cash, I was impressed with his form.
Switch Sierra Leone’s post position with Mystik Dan in the Derby, and I am not convinced the ending would have been the same. The horse rallied from the outside and still nearly caught up to Mystik Dan with an impressive kick in the stretch!
Sierra Leone took the Preakness off and should be fresh at Saratoga. He will not have to deal with the amount of difficult traffic in the Belmont Stakes as he did in the Derby. Tyler Gafflaione will get the most out of him this time.
I predict that Mindframe will provide Sierra Leone with a test in the final furlong, but it won’t be enough. Look for Sierra Leone to draw clear after engaging in a brief duel with Mindframe to the wire!
With this in mind, Sierra Leone is my Belmont Stakes best bet to win the race. Also, consider an exacta ticket that includes Sierra Leone followed by Mindframe in 2nd place.
Where to Bet on the Belmont Stakes?
The best online betting apps will have all the action for the final Triple Crown race of 2024. If you are looking at getting top value for your money, and an exemplary experience, consider checking out the Belmont Stakes at BetUS.
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