Who will hit a home run tonight in the MLB? Check our best HR bets today to find out! Our experts go through the odds of the best MLB betting sites on any given night to discover the most valuable HR prop bets available.
They pick the best bets to hit a home run based on factors such as stats, recent trends, ballpark analysis, and more. We explain our approach in detail below, in case you want to build your own HR betting strategy.
If you simply want predictions, the table below features our best home run prop picks tonight (updated every single day, similarly to our NRFI picks) Check the next section if you want our reasoning for each of them.
Best Home Run Bets Today, August 26
| HOME RUN BETS | BOOKMAKER |
|---|---|
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+295) – Toronto Blue Jays | Bovada |
| Daulton Varsho (+500) – Toronto Blue Jays | Bovada |
| Juan Soto (+375) – NY Yankees | Betwhale |
Our Best Bets to Hit a Home Run Today for August 26 (With Reasoning)
After checking the latest odds for home run prop picks today, we have selected the following best HR bets for August 26:
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+295) – Toronto Blue Jays
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the Blue Jays will look to stay hot following a four-game sweep of the Angels. They are coming off a 8-2 win to cap off a big weekend at the Rogers Centre.
Guerrero Jr. will step to the dish with a favorable matchup at his disposal. The 25-year-old has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball since the All-Star break. The heavy hitting Guerrero Jr has hit 14 home runs in a little over a month!
No-Doubter 🤫 #PLAKATA pic.twitter.com/mvgmXci4mk
— Toronto Blue Jays (@BlueJays) August 24, 2024
He is heading into tonight having connected for six home runs in August. There is a good chance of Vladdy adding another to his resume this evening. Note that Guerrero Jr. has notched a .235 average with three home runs against the Red Sox Nick Pivetta in 34 at-bats!
I recommend backing Guerrero Jr. for your best home run bets today!
Daulton Varsho (+500) – Toronto Blue Jays
Guerrero isn’t the only Blue Jay worth considering to hit a home run tonight. In addition to Vladdy, consider looking at Daulton Varsho’s bat in Toronto. The guy has been a terrible matchup for Pivetta in his career.
Daulton Varsho crushes his 14th home run of the season. 🚀 pic.twitter.com/RyszY8mcLA
— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) August 11, 2024
The Red Sox hurler has struggled to figure out Varsho. Toronto’s center fielder is hitting .364 with two home runs versus Pivetta in 11 at-bats! There aren’t many other pitchers that Varsho has had this type of consistent success against in his career.
Overall, Varsho has a .218 batting average with 15 home runs and 53 RBIs. He most recently went deep on August 14. This appears like a great day for Varsho to get the long ball working for him again!
Varsho is catching fantastic value for your second home run bet at +500 on Monday.
Juan Soto (+375) – New York Yankees
I have a rule that if Juan Soto, Aaron Judge, or Shohei Ohtani have a generous price, I’m pulling the trigger. On Monday, Soto is catching an excellent price for his home run prop bet!
At +375, he has to be considered one of the best home run bets today. Soto enters with a .299 average, 37 home runs, and 95 RBIs. His 37 long balls rank fifth in the Major Leagues.
The Generational, Juan Soto. pic.twitter.com/zFXTixpYre
— New York Yankees (@Yankees) August 25, 2024
The majority of his damage has been inflicted this month. Soto has recorded nine home runs since August 4. This matchup against the Nationals is very favorable for the star.
The Nats’ Mitchell Parker has given up 10 home runs over his previous 11 starts. Also, note that the majority of the pitcher’s homers have been allowed at Nationals Park this season. He’s gotten tagged for 10 at home as opposed to six on the road.
How We Pick the Best Picks to Hit a Home Run Tonight?
Consistently picking the best home run props on any given MLB night is challenging and requires a strategic approach. We go through various factors to determine if an HR wager is worth it.
Here’s exactly how we do that:
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We always start with the obvious – individual hitting stats that show us the chances of any player to deliver home runs in the first place. We go through long-term data like career records and season-to-date, but also check the most recent trends.
That last part helps us determine whether a player is performing as expected. Sometimes, injuries, fatigue, age, and other negative factors could lead to drop-offs. On other occasions, players might be doing better than expected.
You always want to know both the big picture and the latest developments to find the best home run picks on any given day. The HR numbers are easily available in many sources, including the official MLB home run page.
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The batting averages and HR stats are critical, but the opposing pitchers are equally important. Check who’s going to start and evaluate any potential pitchers that could be involved, including both starters and relievers.
Again, a reasonable combination of long and short-term numbers will help you paint a clear picture of where the pitchers stand right now.
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The duels between pitchers and batters often come with a story. Certain players thrive against specific opponents and struggle against others. If you’re going to bet money on home run picks daily, you need to know about that.
Exploring previous meetings between the teams or the starting pitcher and batter in question is an easy way to spot any important trends that might affect the next battle between them.
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Every ballpark in the MLB is unique, affecting the teams’ chances to score home runs. The dimensions and the weather are the most obvious reasons that HR rates vary from pitch to pitch.
That’s why you should consider the ballpark. You can find stats in different places online, but our team usually checks the OnlyHomers.com standings.
The next thing we do is to explore the weather reports, since the conditions dictate our home run bets of the day, too.
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If you want to get the highest betting value for your daily home run predictions, you should always compare the odds of multiple bookmakers and grab the best price possible.
The differences might look negligible but getting a few percentages higher returns on every successful HR pick could be the difference between winning and losing in the long run.
At the same time, you can’t go to every top-rated betting site online. Picking two or three reliable options is the sensible approach, which is why we compare the odds of Bovada, BetUS, and Betwhale.
Here’s how to find the home run prop bets on each site.
- Bovada: Sports > Baseball > MLB > Matchup of Choice – Bets > Player Props.
- BetUS: Sportsbook > Baseball > MLB Props > Matchup of Choice.
- BetWhale: Sportsbook > Baseball > MLB > Matchup of Choice > Player.
