Who will hit a home run today in the MLB? Check our best HR bets today to find out! Our experts go through the odds on any given night to discover the most valuable HR prop bets available.
They pick the best bets to hit a home run based on factors such as stats, recent trends, ballpark analysis, and more. We explain our approach in detail below, in case you want to build your own HR betting strategy.
If you simply want predictions, the table below features our best home run prop picks tonight (updated every single day, similarly to our NRFI picks)
Best Home Run Predictions Today, September 15
| HOME RUN BETS | ODDS | BOOKMAKER |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Olson (ATL) | +300 | Lucky Rebel |
| Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) | +270 | Lucky Rebel |
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | +215 | Bovada |
Our Best Bets to Hit a Home Run Today for September 15 (With Reasoning)
After checking the latest best MLB betting sites‘ odds for home run prop picks today, we have selected the following best HR bets for September 15:
Matt Olson (+300) – Atlanta Braves
If you’re looking for a strong home run prop on today’s slate, Matt Olson jumps off the board at Nationals Park. The Braves slugger is locked in at the plate, going deep in back-to-back games and tallying four homers over his last eight appearances.
Matt Olson sends one up and out to put the @Braves on the board 😤 pic.twitter.com/w7pdoVaa87
— MLB (@MLB) September 14, 2025
Olson enters this matchup hitting .273 with 25 bombs and 83 RBIs across 149 games. He gets a juicy draw against lefty Mitchell Parker, who’s been vulnerable to power bats. Olson has already taken Parker deep once and owns a .273 average in 11 at-bats against him.
Parker has struggled to keep the ball in the yard lately, giving up 11 home runs over his last eight starts. With a bloated 5.69 ERA and 1.44 WHIP on the season, he’s exactly the type of pitcher Olson can punish.
At +300, this is a solid value spot to back Olson to leave the yard again.
Giancarlo Stanton (+270) – New York Yankees
Giancarlo Stanton is heating up at the plate, and Monday night sets up as an ideal spot to ride his power swing. The Yankees slugger gets a favorable matchup against Simeon Woods Richardson, who’s struggled to keep the ball in the park in recent outings.
This is your reminder that Giancarlo Stanton hits baseballs very very far 💪 pic.twitter.com/RHBr6RLcP4
— MLB (@MLB) September 12, 2025
Stanton comes in with a .271 average, 20 home runs, and 49 RBIs through just 65 games. He’s launched three homers in his last nine games since September 3, showing signs of being locked in during this final stretch.
Woods Richardson brings a 4.58 ERA and 1.39 WHIP into this one and has coughed up seven long balls across his last six starts. With the Twins’ right-hander fighting command issues and Stanton in a groove, the matchup lines up perfectly.
At +270, Stanton offers strong value to go deep at Yankee Stadium.
Aaron Judge (+215) – New York Yankees
Aaron Judge is back in full MVP form, and Monday night presents another prime opportunity to cash in on his red-hot bat. The Yankees’ superstar has been on an absolute tear, launching five home runs in just six games since September 9.
Judge is putting together another monster season, slashing .326 with 48 homers and a 1.125 OPS. He’s seeing the ball exceptionally well and punishing just about everything in the zone.
He’ll face Simeon Woods Richardson, who’s carrying a 4.58 ERA and has allowed seven home runs over his last six starts. With Woods Richardson struggling to miss barrels, Judge is set up perfectly to add to his home run total.
At +215, there’s plenty of value backing one of baseball’s most dangerous hitters to stay scorching hot.
How We Pick the Best Picks to Hit a Home Run Tonight?
Consistently picking the best home run props on any given MLB night is challenging and requires a strategic approach. We go through various factors to determine if an HR wager is worth it.
Here’s exactly how we do that:
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We always start with the obvious – individual hitting stats that show us the chances of any player to deliver home runs in the first place. We go through long-term data like career records and season-to-date, but also check the most recent trends.
That last part helps us determine whether a player is performing as expected. Sometimes, injuries, fatigue, age, and other negative factors could lead to drop-offs. On other occasions, players might be doing better than expected.
You always want to know both the big picture and the latest developments to find the best home run picks on any given day. The HR numbers are easily available in many sources, including the official MLB home run page.
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The batting averages and HR stats are critical, but the opposing pitchers are equally important. Check who’s going to start and evaluate any potential pitchers that could be involved, including both starters and relievers.
Again, a reasonable combination of long and short-term numbers will help you paint a clear picture of where the pitchers stand right now.
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The duels between pitchers and batters often come with a story. Certain players thrive against specific opponents and struggle against others. If you’re going to bet money on home run picks daily, you need to know about that.
Exploring previous meetings between the teams or the starting pitcher and batter in question is an easy way to spot any important trends that might affect the next battle between them.
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Every ballpark in the MLB is unique, affecting the teams’ chances to score home runs. The dimensions and the weather are the most obvious reasons that HR rates vary from pitch to pitch.
That’s why you should consider the ballpark. You can find stats in different places online, but our team usually checks the OnlyHomers.com standings.
The next thing we do is to explore the weather reports, since the conditions dictate our home run bets of the day, too.
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If you want to get the highest betting value for your daily home run predictions, you should always compare the odds of multiple bookmakers and grab the best price possible.
The differences might look negligible but getting a few percentages higher returns on every successful HR pick could be the difference between winning and losing in the long run.
At the same time, you can’t go to every top-rated betting site online. Picking two or three reliable options is the sensible approach, which is why we compare the odds of Bovada, BetUS, and Betwhale.
Here’s how to find the home run prop bets on each site.
- Bovada: Sports > Baseball > MLB > Matchup of Choice – Bets > Player Props.
- BetUS: Sportsbook > Baseball > MLB Props > Matchup of Choice.
- BetWhale: Sportsbook > Baseball > MLB > Matchup of Choice > Player.
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