Who will hit a home run tonight in the MLB? Check our best HR bets today to find out! Our experts go through the odds of the best MLB betting sites on any given night to discover the most valuable HR prop bets available.
They pick the best bets to hit a home run based on factors such as stats, recent trends, ballpark analysis, and more. We explain our approach in detail below, in case you want to build your own HR betting strategy.
If you simply want predictions, the table below features our best home run prop picks tonight (updated every single day, similarly to our NRFI picks) Check the next section if you want our reasoning for each of them, and feel free to use the recommended wagers here for our free World Series betting contest.

Best Home Run Bets Today, March 19
Our Best Bets to Hit a Home Run Today for March 19 (With Reasoning)
After checking the latest odds for home run prop picks today, we have selected the following best HR bets for March 19:
Shohei Ohtani (+260) – LA Dodgers
The Dodgers prevailed behind the strong arm of Yoshinobu Yamamoto in a 4-1 win in the series opener in the Tokyo Series. They didn’t need a home run, or much offense to oust the Cubs. There wasn’t a home run from either side on Tuesday, but I expect the bats to wake up.
In particular, Shohei Ohtani should connect for a long ball before leaving Japan. He went 2-of-5, including a double, but didn’t get the ball over the fence for a home run.
Nevertheless, I’m going back to the well and backing Ohtani to do it on Wednesday. I said if Ohtani didn’t go deep yesterday, I’m going to add him for one of my MLB home run bets today. As you may know, Ohtani became the first player to reach 50+ home runs and 50+ steals in a single season.
Shohei Ohtani's first at-bat of #SpringTraining …
Shohei Ohtani's first HOME RUN of Spring Training! pic.twitter.com/k1fScI5BrD
— MLB (@MLB) March 1, 2025
He finished the season second in the Majors with 54 homers, only four behind Aaron Judge. Ohtani proceeded to become the first full-time DH player to win an MVP award in MLB! Look for Ohtani to leave Japan with a home run in the series finale of the Tokyo Series.
Ohtani’s price is up to +260 today, which presents strong value to do damage with his power. As one of the best HR bets today, consider Ohtani at +260!
Max Muncy (+400) – Los Angeles Dodgers
Max Muncy may not have the big-name recognition of Ohtani or Mookie Betts on this club. However, Muncy is an important part of a roster loaded with depth up and down the lineup.
I give Muncy a solid chance of hitting a home run against a pitcher he’s had success against in the past. Muncy will look to clobber Cubs’ starter Justin Steele for a second time in his career.
The 34-year-old Texan has connected for a .400 batting average and a home run in five at-bats against Steele. Muncy has been having a solid spring training in Arizona. He’s notched six RBIs with a home run in 20 at-bats.
MAX MUNCY WITH THE BAT DROP
Second deck moonshot!! ☄️ pic.twitter.com/Y28nXYuaPz
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) October 17, 2024
He was limited due to an injury last year, but still managed to swat 15 long balls in 73 matchups. I’m optimistic that Muncy can get much closer to the 36 home runs he hit for the Dodgers in 2023.
In short, Muncy has terrific value for your MLB home run picks today in the Tokyo Series!
How We Pick the Best Picks to Hit a Home Run Tonight?
Consistently picking the best home run props on any given MLB night is challenging and requires a strategic approach. We go through various factors to determine if an HR wager is worth it.
Here’s exactly how we do that:
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We always start with the obvious – individual hitting stats that show us the chances of any player to deliver home runs in the first place. We go through long-term data like career records and season-to-date, but also check the most recent trends.
That last part helps us determine whether a player is performing as expected. Sometimes, injuries, fatigue, age, and other negative factors could lead to drop-offs. On other occasions, players might be doing better than expected.
You always want to know both the big picture and the latest developments to find the best home run picks on any given day. The HR numbers are easily available in many sources, including the official MLB home run page.
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The batting averages and HR stats are critical, but the opposing pitchers are equally important. Check who’s going to start and evaluate any potential pitchers that could be involved, including both starters and relievers.
Again, a reasonable combination of long and short-term numbers will help you paint a clear picture of where the pitchers stand right now.
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The duels between pitchers and batters often come with a story. Certain players thrive against specific opponents and struggle against others. If you’re going to bet money on home run picks daily, you need to know about that.
Exploring previous meetings between the teams or the starting pitcher and batter in question is an easy way to spot any important trends that might affect the next battle between them.
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Every ballpark in the MLB is unique, affecting the teams’ chances to score home runs. The dimensions and the weather are the most obvious reasons that HR rates vary from pitch to pitch.
That’s why you should consider the ballpark. You can find stats in different places online, but our team usually checks the OnlyHomers.com standings.
The next thing we do is to explore the weather reports, since the conditions dictate our home run bets of the day, too.
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If you want to get the highest betting value for your daily home run predictions, you should always compare the odds of multiple bookmakers and grab the best price possible.
The differences might look negligible but getting a few percentages higher returns on every successful HR pick could be the difference between winning and losing in the long run.
At the same time, you can’t go to every top-rated betting site online. Picking two or three reliable options is the sensible approach, which is why we compare the odds of Bovada, BetUS, and Betwhale.
Here’s how to find the home run prop bets on each site.
- Bovada: Sports > Baseball > MLB > Matchup of Choice – Bets > Player Props.
- BetUS: Sportsbook > Baseball > MLB Props > Matchup of Choice.
- BetWhale: Sportsbook > Baseball > MLB > Matchup of Choice > Player.

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