Who will hit a home run today in the MLB? Check our best HR bets today to find out! Our experts go through the odds of the best MLB betting sites on any given night to discover the most valuable HR prop bets available.
They pick the best bets to hit a home run based on factors such as stats, recent trends, ballpark analysis, and more. We explain our approach in detail below, in case you want to build your own HR betting strategy.
If you simply want predictions, the table below features our best home run prop picks tonight (updated every single day, similarly to our NRFI picks)
Best Home Run Predictions Today, July 10
| HOME RUN BETS | ODDS | BOOKMAKER |
|---|---|---|
| Juan Soto (NYM) *G2 | +265 | Bovada |
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | +180 | Bovada |
| CJ Abrams (WSH) | +550 | Bovada |
Our Best Bets to Hit a Home Run Today for July 10 (With Reasoning)
After checking the latest odds for home run prop picks today, we have selected the following best HR bets for July 10:
Juan Soto (+265) – New York Mets *Game 2
After yesterday’s matchup was postponed due to rain, Juan Soto should have himself an evening against the Baltimore Orioles. Tomoyuki Sugano is listed as the probable starter for the Orioles, which is a good sign for the Mets’ big bats.
In his first season in the Major Leagues, Sugano has run into problems with the home run ball. He’s getting lit up with the deep ball, as Sugano is responsible for six home runs in just four starts!
Additionally, since May 15, Sugano has allowed at least one home run in eight of nine outings and a total of 12. Look for Soto to feast on Sugano’s meatballs across the middle of the plate.
Juan Soto hits his 20th home run of the season 🔥
He has 11 HRs in June 👀 pic.twitter.com/ZpwvelvjwW
— MLB (@MLB) June 28, 2025
Soto had a slow start in his first year with the Mets, but is heating up. He’s launched 21 home runs to tie Pete Alonso for the most on the roster. Also, Soto has gone yard seven times since June 23.
With Sugano getting the start, I recommend Soto for your best bets to hit a home run today.
Cal Raleigh (+180) – Seattle Mariners
Cal Raleigh remains one of the hottest hitters in baseball in July. His early-season surge can’t be described as merely a hot stretch. The guy’s been doing it all year!
Raleigh heads into Thursday with a .265 batting average and 36 home runs in 90 matchups! The 28-year-old swatted four long balls over eight games since June 30, so he hasn’t slowed down. Raleigh’s 36 home runs give him a two bomb advantage ahead of Aaron Judge.
36 home runs for Cal Raleigh!
He passes Ken Griffey Jr. for most home runs by a @Mariners player before the All-Star break 😳 pic.twitter.com/Dz6urLTdK7
— MLB (@MLB) July 9, 2025
Yankees’ veteran pitcher Marcus Stroman is on the bump, which bodes well for Raleigh. The pitcher has been all out of whack and dealing with an injury this season. Through five starts, Stroman recorded a 7.45 ERA and 1.66 WHIP.
Since recovering from his knee injury, the former Blue Jay has allowed 10 hits and four earned runs in two starts. That also includes a home run in back-to-back appearances. Raleigh ranks high as one of the best bets to hit a home run today!
CJ Abrams (+550) – Washington Nationals
The Nationals look to add another win following an 8-2 blowout yesterday. They should have a solid chance to win the rubber match with Miles Mikolas receiving the starting duties.
The pitcher has been feeling the heat as of late and struggling mightily to record an out. He’s coming off a horrid performance with 10 hits, eight earned runs, and a whopping six home runs allowed against the Cubs!
Going back to June 5, Mikolas has yielded 12 long balls in six games. He will try to shake off the issues against the Nationals, but CJ Abrams may have different plans. Abrams is hitting .385 with a home run in 13 at-bats against Mikolas.
CJ Abrams' 12th HR of the season ties the game in the 5th. pic.twitter.com/yMnPvRXa66
— MLB (@MLB) June 29, 2025
Overall, in 2025, Abrams has launched 12 home runs and 31 RBIs in 79 matchups. I have no faith in Mikolas, so Abrams at +550 is one of the best home run bets that you are going to find on Thursday.
How We Pick the Best Picks to Hit a Home Run Tonight?
Consistently picking the best home run props on any given MLB night is challenging and requires a strategic approach. We go through various factors to determine if an HR wager is worth it.
Here’s exactly how we do that:
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We always start with the obvious – individual hitting stats that show us the chances of any player to deliver home runs in the first place. We go through long-term data like career records and season-to-date, but also check the most recent trends.
That last part helps us determine whether a player is performing as expected. Sometimes, injuries, fatigue, age, and other negative factors could lead to drop-offs. On other occasions, players might be doing better than expected.
You always want to know both the big picture and the latest developments to find the best home run picks on any given day. The HR numbers are easily available in many sources, including the official MLB home run page.
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The batting averages and HR stats are critical, but the opposing pitchers are equally important. Check who’s going to start and evaluate any potential pitchers that could be involved, including both starters and relievers.
Again, a reasonable combination of long and short-term numbers will help you paint a clear picture of where the pitchers stand right now.
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The duels between pitchers and batters often come with a story. Certain players thrive against specific opponents and struggle against others. If you’re going to bet money on home run picks daily, you need to know about that.
Exploring previous meetings between the teams or the starting pitcher and batter in question is an easy way to spot any important trends that might affect the next battle between them.
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Every ballpark in the MLB is unique, affecting the teams’ chances to score home runs. The dimensions and the weather are the most obvious reasons that HR rates vary from pitch to pitch.
That’s why you should consider the ballpark. You can find stats in different places online, but our team usually checks the OnlyHomers.com standings.
The next thing we do is to explore the weather reports, since the conditions dictate our home run bets of the day, too.
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If you want to get the highest betting value for your daily home run predictions, you should always compare the odds of multiple bookmakers and grab the best price possible.
The differences might look negligible but getting a few percentages higher returns on every successful HR pick could be the difference between winning and losing in the long run.
At the same time, you can’t go to every top-rated betting site online. Picking two or three reliable options is the sensible approach, which is why we compare the odds of Bovada, BetUS, and Betwhale.
Here’s how to find the home run prop bets on each site.
- Bovada: Sports > Baseball > MLB > Matchup of Choice – Bets > Player Props.
- BetUS: Sportsbook > Baseball > MLB Props > Matchup of Choice.
- BetWhale: Sportsbook > Baseball > MLB > Matchup of Choice > Player.
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