Who will hit a home run today in the MLB? Check our best HR bets today to find out! Our experts go through the odds on any given night to discover the most valuable HR prop bets available.
They pick the best bets to hit a home run based on factors such as stats, recent trends, ballpark analysis, and more. We explain our approach in detail below, in case you want to build your own HR betting strategy.
If you simply want predictions, the table below features our best home run prop picks tonight (updated every single day, similarly to our NRFI picks)
Best Home Run Predictions Today, July 18
| HOME RUN BETS | ODDS | BOOKMAKER |
|---|---|---|
| George Springer (TOR) | +350 | Bovada |
| Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | +350 | Bovada |
| Colton Cowser (BAL) | +425 | Bovada |
Our Best Bets to Hit a Home Run Today for July 18 (With Reasoning)
After checking the latest best MLB betting sites‘ odds for home run prop picks today, we have selected the following best HR bets for July 18:
George Springer (+350) – Toronto Blue Jays
The Toronto Blue Jays open the second half of the season at home against the San Francisco Giants on Friday night. The Giants are scheduled to send Justin Verlander to the mound for his 16th start of the season.
The 42-year-old veteran carries a 4.70 ERA and 1.42 WHIP into tonight’s session. Verlander is pitching well enough given the stage he’s at in his career. He doesn’t have the best history against George Springer on the mound, though.
GEORGE SPRINGER
GRAND SLAM
HAPPY #CANADADAY 😤 pic.twitter.com/dG3gUOQ3In— MLB (@MLB) July 1, 2025
Springer is hitting .375 with two home runs in 16 at-bats versus Verlander. The former Astro caught fire toward the end of the first half of the season. He had a relatively slow start, but was able to get his power swing working.
Overall, Springer has hit 16 home runs in 90 games, and five in his previous 45 at-bats. Additionally, he has launched a home run in three of his previous six showings at home. In review, Springer is one of the best home run bets at +350!
Gunnar Henderson (+350) – Baltimore Orioles
Orioles’ shortstop Gunnar Henderson will look to do heavy damage against the Rays’ pitching tonight. Henderson should have the upper hand on Taj Bradley in this evening’s matchup!
Bradley heads to the bump with an ERA of 4.60 and a 1.27 WHIP through 19 games and 103.2 innings. The 24-year-old has been up and down, and I don’t know if that’s going to change in this matchup.
He gets the call with a lackluster 5.55 ERA and .266 OBA in 48.2 innings of work. Note that Bradley has also surrendered eight home runs in his time pitching at home, which has proven to be tricky at the Yankees’ spring training facility.
Gunnar gives us the lead!! pic.twitter.com/ZnnsLvxxmP
— Baltimore Orioles (@Orioles) July 10, 2025
Henderson belted 11 home runs and registered 31 RBIs before the All-Star break. He perhaps didn’t have the power numbers he was looking for, but Bradley is a solid matchup for him. The 24-year-old Alabama native is hitting .412 with one home run against Bradley in 17 at-bats!
I’m fully on board with Henderson to strike deep for your best MLB home run picks today.
Colton Cowser (+425) – Baltimore Orioles
Colton Cowser of the Orioles is another bet worth considering against Bradley tonight. Bradley has struggled against several hitters in this lineup, which includes Cowser.
In eight at-bats against Bradley, Cowser has connected for a home run and a .250 batting average. Overall, he’s having a mediocre campaign with eight long balls and 18 RBIs in 136 at-bats. That’s below Cowser’s expectations, but I can see him heating up in the second half.
Moo this man! pic.twitter.com/FGCVlXUCoS
— Baltimore Orioles (@Orioles) July 5, 2025
In 2024, Cowser hit .267 with 12 home runs and 35 RBIs after the All-Star break. I foresee Cowser making up for lost time, and with a favorable matchup on the docket against Bradley, he’s one of the top MLB HR prop bets tonight.
How We Pick the Best Picks to Hit a Home Run Tonight?
Consistently picking the best home run props on any given MLB night is challenging and requires a strategic approach. We go through various factors to determine if an HR wager is worth it.
Here’s exactly how we do that:
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We always start with the obvious – individual hitting stats that show us the chances of any player to deliver home runs in the first place. We go through long-term data like career records and season-to-date, but also check the most recent trends.
That last part helps us determine whether a player is performing as expected. Sometimes, injuries, fatigue, age, and other negative factors could lead to drop-offs. On other occasions, players might be doing better than expected.
You always want to know both the big picture and the latest developments to find the best home run picks on any given day. The HR numbers are easily available in many sources, including the official MLB home run page.
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The batting averages and HR stats are critical, but the opposing pitchers are equally important. Check who’s going to start and evaluate any potential pitchers that could be involved, including both starters and relievers.
Again, a reasonable combination of long and short-term numbers will help you paint a clear picture of where the pitchers stand right now.
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The duels between pitchers and batters often come with a story. Certain players thrive against specific opponents and struggle against others. If you’re going to bet money on home run picks daily, you need to know about that.
Exploring previous meetings between the teams or the starting pitcher and batter in question is an easy way to spot any important trends that might affect the next battle between them.
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Every ballpark in the MLB is unique, affecting the teams’ chances to score home runs. The dimensions and the weather are the most obvious reasons that HR rates vary from pitch to pitch.
That’s why you should consider the ballpark. You can find stats in different places online, but our team usually checks the OnlyHomers.com standings.
The next thing we do is to explore the weather reports, since the conditions dictate our home run bets of the day, too.
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If you want to get the highest betting value for your daily home run predictions, you should always compare the odds of multiple bookmakers and grab the best price possible.
The differences might look negligible but getting a few percentages higher returns on every successful HR pick could be the difference between winning and losing in the long run.
At the same time, you can’t go to every top-rated betting site online. Picking two or three reliable options is the sensible approach, which is why we compare the odds of Bovada, BetUS, and Betwhale.
Here’s how to find the home run prop bets on each site.
- Bovada: Sports > Baseball > MLB > Matchup of Choice – Bets > Player Props.
- BetUS: Sportsbook > Baseball > MLB Props > Matchup of Choice.
- BetWhale: Sportsbook > Baseball > MLB > Matchup of Choice > Player.
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