Best Home Run Bets Today – MLB HR Predictions

Best Home Run Bets Today – MLB HR Predictions

Who will hit a home run today in the MLB? Check our best HR bets today to find out! Our experts go through the odds of the best MLB betting sites on any given night to discover the most valuable HR prop bets available.

They pick the best bets to hit a home run based on factors such as stats, recent trends, ballpark analysis, and more. We explain our approach in detail below, in case you want to build your own HR betting strategy.

If you simply want predictions, the table below features our best home run prop picks tonight (updated every single day, similarly to our NRFI picks)


Best Home Run Predictions Today, April 17

HOME RUN BETSODDSBOOKMAKER
Junior Caminero (TB)+390Bovada
Adolis Garcia (TEX)+350Bovada


Our Best Bets to Hit a Home Run Today for April 17 (With Reasoning)

After checking the latest odds for home run prop picks today, we have selected the following best HR bets for April 17:

Junior Caminero (+390) – Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays and Yankees meet for a four-game long weekend clash at Yankee Stadium! It should be a quality series between two AL East foes. The Rays are going to have a chance to spring the upset right off the bat in the series opener.

With Will Warren scheduled to hit the bump for the Yankees, the Bronx Bombers may not have a smooth experience when the Rays are at the dish. Warren is likely going to develop into a solid pitcher for the Yankees, but he isn’t feeling it right now.

The 25-year-old production of Southeastern Louisiana holds an ERA of 5.14 and a 1.14 WHIP. Warren has conceded two home runs through 14 innings. It’s important to note that both homers came at Yankee Stadium! Warren didn’t give up a long ball in his start at PNC Park.

I expect Rays’ slugger Junior Caminero to take advantage of a bad pitch from Warren. Caminero has already hit four home runs in 17 games this season.

A lot of people expected a breakout year from Caminero, and he’s off and running early in 2025. In this matchup against Warren, I recommend Caminero for your MLB home run best bets today!

The Bet
Caminero HR

Adolis Garcia (+350) – Texas Rangers

The Rangers’ Adolis Garcia has a favorable matchup against the Angels’ Jack Kochanowicz. Garcia thrashed Kochanowicz for a long ball in one of his two at-bats.

The pitcher is off to rocky start to the 2025 campaign. The 24-year-old Philadelphia native will look to get on track after posting a 5.74 ERA and 1.34 WHIP through 15.2 innings of work.

He’s allowed three home runs during that stretch, so Kochanowicz is struggling to find form. Last season, in his first season in the Majors, he was tagged for seven long balls in 65.1 frames.

Garcia enters this series with a .220 batting average and two homers through 18 matchups. He hasn’t showcased his power fully yet, but we know it’s there. In his first four seasons in the Majors, Garcia launched at least 25 home runs, with a career-high 39 in 2023.

Look for Garcia to flex his muscles against the Angels, so consider him as one of the best MLB home run picks today!

The Bet
Garcia HR


How We Pick the Best Picks to Hit a Home Run Tonight?

Consistently picking the best home run props on any given MLB night is challenging and requires a strategic approach. We go through various factors to determine if an HR wager is worth it.

Here’s exactly how we do that:

  1. We always start with the obvious – individual hitting stats that show us the chances of any player to deliver home runs in the first place. We go through long-term data like career records and season-to-date, but also check the most recent trends.

    That last part helps us determine whether a player is performing as expected. Sometimes, injuries, fatigue, age, and other negative factors could lead to drop-offs. On other occasions, players might be doing better than expected.

    You always want to know both the big picture and the latest developments to find the best home run picks on any given day. The HR numbers are easily available in many sources, including the official MLB home run page.

  2. The batting averages and HR stats are critical, but the opposing pitchers are equally important. Check who’s going to start and evaluate any potential pitchers that could be involved, including both starters and relievers.

    Again, a reasonable combination of long and short-term numbers will help you paint a clear picture of where the pitchers stand right now.

  3. The duels between pitchers and batters often come with a story. Certain players thrive against specific opponents and struggle against others. If you’re going to bet money on home run picks daily, you need to know about that.

    Exploring previous meetings between the teams or the starting pitcher and batter in question is an easy way to spot any important trends that might affect the next battle between them.

  4. Every ballpark in the MLB is unique, affecting the teams’ chances to score home runs. The dimensions and the weather are the most obvious reasons that HR rates vary from pitch to pitch.

    That’s why you should consider the ballpark. You can find stats in different places online, but our team usually checks the OnlyHomers.com standings.

    The next thing we do is to explore the weather reports, since the conditions dictate our home run bets of the day, too.

  5. If you want to get the highest betting value for your daily home run predictions, you should always compare the odds of multiple bookmakers and grab the best price possible.

    The differences might look negligible but getting a few percentages higher returns on every successful HR pick could be the difference between winning and losing in the long run.

    At the same time, you can’t go to every top-rated betting site online. Picking two or three reliable options is the sensible approach, which is why we compare the odds of Bovada, BetUS, and Betwhale.

Casinos Bovada BetUS Betwhale
Bonus 100% up to $1,000 125% up to $2,625 125% up to $1,250
Sign Up Play Now Play Now Play Now

Here’s how to find the home run prop bets on each site.

  • Bovada: Sports > Baseball > MLB > Matchup of Choice – Bets > Player Props.
  • BetUS: Sportsbook > Baseball > MLB Props > Matchup of Choice.
  • BetWhale: Sportsbook > Baseball > MLB > Matchup of Choice > Player.
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About the Author
Kyle Eve profile picture
Kyle Eve
Editor-in-Chief
Kyle Eve is Editor-in-Chief of The Sports Geek, providing reliable analysis for millions of readers since joining the team in 2012. After placing his first sports bet on his 18th birthday, Kyle has devoted his entire adult life to becoming the best bettor he can be. He’s covered some of the biggest sporting events in the world, from the Super Bowl and World Series to the NBA Finals and Kentucky Derby. Kyle lives in Windsor, Ontario.
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