Who will hit a home run today in the MLB? Check our best HR bets today to find out! Our experts go through the odds on any given night to discover the most valuable HR prop bets available.
They pick the best bets to hit a home run based on factors such as stats, recent trends, ballpark analysis, and more. We explain our approach in detail below, in case you want to build your own HR betting strategy.
If you simply want predictions, the table below features our best home run prop picks tonight (updated every single day, similarly to our NRFI picks)
Best Home Run Predictions Today, October 16
| HOME RUN BETS | ODDS | BOOKMAKER |
|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani (LAD) | +240 | Lucky Rebel |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | +400 | Lucky Rebel |
Our Best Bets to Hit a Home Run Today for October 16 (With Reasoning)
After checking the latest best MLB betting sites‘ odds for home run prop picks today, we have selected the following best HR bets for October 16:
Shohei Ohtani (+240) – Los Angeles Dodgers
Shohei Ohtani brings plenty of intrigue into Game 3 of the NLCS, and at +240, there’s real value on him going deep. The matchup against Jose Quintana lines up well.
Ohtani has already taken him deep twice in just six career at-bats, batting .333 off the veteran lefty. Whether Quintana starts or comes in for bulk innings, Ohtani should get his shot.
SHOHEI OHTANI DESTROYS HIS SECOND HOME RUN #POSTSEASON pic.twitter.com/J9ALjsTXQg
— MLB (@MLB) October 1, 2025
While the slugger has been quiet since launching one in the Wild Card round, this is the type of spot where his bat could reignite. Dodger Stadium, postseason pressure, and a favorable matchup all point to a big-swing opportunity.
With 55 home runs in the regular season, Ohtani doesn’t need many looks to do damage. Backing him to go yard tonight makes sense at this number.
Julio Rodriguez (+400) – Seattle Mariners
Julio Rodriguez is seeing the ball well right now, and at +400, the value is hard to pass up. He’s gone deep in back-to-back games against the Blue Jays in this ALCS and now has three homers in his last eight postseason outings. With his swing dialed in, this is the perfect time to back him.
JULIO RODRÍGUEZ 2-RUN BLAST! #ALCS pic.twitter.com/olXcF7mzh4
— MLB (@MLB) October 16, 2025
Rodriguez has also had early success against Max Scherzer, hitting .400 with a homer in just five at-bats. Scherzer, meanwhile, has given up eight home runs in his last six starts, a concerning trend heading into this matchup.
Rodriguez is a known streaky hitter, and he’s clearly locked in at the plate. With the power stroke heating up and a favorable matchup on deck, this is a sharp play at a strong number.
How We Pick the Best Picks to Hit a Home Run Tonight?
Consistently picking the best home run props on any given MLB night is challenging and requires a strategic approach. We go through various factors to determine if an HR wager is worth it.
Here’s exactly how we do that:
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We always start with the obvious – individual hitting stats that show us the chances of any player to deliver home runs in the first place. We go through long-term data like career records and season-to-date, but also check the most recent trends.
That last part helps us determine whether a player is performing as expected. Sometimes, injuries, fatigue, age, and other negative factors could lead to drop-offs. On other occasions, players might be doing better than expected.
You always want to know both the big picture and the latest developments to find the best home run picks on any given day. The HR numbers are easily available in many sources, including the official MLB home run page.
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The batting averages and HR stats are critical, but the opposing pitchers are equally important. Check who’s going to start and evaluate any potential pitchers that could be involved, including both starters and relievers.
Again, a reasonable combination of long and short-term numbers will help you paint a clear picture of where the pitchers stand right now.
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The duels between pitchers and batters often come with a story. Certain players thrive against specific opponents and struggle against others. If you’re going to bet money on home run picks daily, you need to know about that.
Exploring previous meetings between the teams or the starting pitcher and batter in question is an easy way to spot any important trends that might affect the next battle between them.
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Every ballpark in the MLB is unique, affecting the teams’ chances to score home runs. The dimensions and the weather are the most obvious reasons that HR rates vary from pitch to pitch.
That’s why you should consider the ballpark. You can find stats in different places online, but our team usually checks the OnlyHomers.com standings.
The next thing we do is to explore the weather reports, since the conditions dictate our home run bets of the day, too.
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If you want to get the highest betting value for your daily home run predictions, you should always compare the odds of multiple bookmakers and grab the best price possible.
The differences might look negligible but getting a few percentages higher returns on every successful HR pick could be the difference between winning and losing in the long run.
At the same time, you can’t go to every top-rated betting site online. Picking two or three reliable options is the sensible approach, which is why we compare the odds of Bovada, BetUS, and Lucky Rebel.
Here’s how to find the home run prop bets on each site.
- Bovada: Sports > Baseball > MLB > Matchup of Choice – Bets > Player Props.
- BetUS: Sportsbook > Baseball > MLB Props > Matchup of Choice.
- Lucky Rebel: Sports > Baseball > MLB > Matchup of Choice > Batter Props.
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