Best NFL Player Props of the Week –  Expert Picks for Week 16

Isiah Pacheco Over 56.5 Rushing Yards (-120)

Patrick Mahomes suffered his annual ankle injury in last week’s win over the Cleveland Browns. The Chiefs quarterback practiced this week but could still miss this Saturday’s game against Houston. Whether Mahomes players or not, Kansas City must lean heavily on its rushing attack to take pressure off the quarterback position.

That is good news for Isiah Pacheco fans, as the running back should see plenty of carries this week against the Texans. Bovada lists Pacheco at over/under 56.5 rushing yards in its NFL player prop bets for this matchup.

Pacheco missed most of the season with a broken leg, and this will be just his sixth appearance this season. His best game since returning from injury was his 55-yard performance against the Chargers.

However, Pacheco will need to step up after his QB’s injury, so I expect a productive game this week.

Lamar Jackson Over 226.5 Passing Yards (-115)

The other Saturday game also has its fair share of exciting NFL Week 16 player props. Baltimore hosts Pittsburgh in a game that could decide the winner of the AFC North. The Ravens are the favorites, but they need Lamar Jackson to overcome his struggles against the Steelers for them to win.

Jon Gruden is SHOCKED that #Ravens QB Lamar Jackson is NOT the MVP favorite:

"Lamar Jackson is putting together his best body of work that I have seen…How is he, not the MVP?… Lamar has played superb football."

Do you agree? 🤔pic.twitter.com/oEXqaKTjoP

— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) December 18, 2024

Secure sportsbooks list Jackson at over/under 226.5 passing yards for this game. The QB had just 207 passing yards against the Steelers earlier this year, but he had 236 or more passing yards in both matchups against Pittsburgh last year.

The good news for Lamar and company is that T.J. Watt, Pittsburgh’s best player, could miss this game. Watt sprained his ankle in last week’s loss to Philadelphia. Jackson should have an easier time throwing the ball if Watt is out, and I think the Ravens’ quarterback will cover his passing yards total this week.

Jerome Ford Anytime TD Scorer (+140)

Next on my list of the best NFL player props tonight is for Browns’ running back Jerome Ford to score a touchdown (+140). Nick Chubb broke his foot last week, ending his already injury-shortened season. The Browns also announced that Dorian Thompson-Robinson will be their starting quarterback.

An inexperienced quarterback combined with Chubb’s injury should set up Ford for a big day against the Bengals this weekend. Cleveland must lean on its rushing attack, and Ford is now the Browns’ RB1.

Ford scored in the season opener against Dallas and did not find the endzone again until last week’s loss to the Chiefs. However, with the changes elsewhere on the roster, he is a great bet to score this week against Cincinnati’s terrible defense. Ford should find the endzone at least once this weekend, making him one of the best anytime TD scorer bets this week.

A.J. Brown Anytime TD Scorer (+120)

Another of the best TD scorer bets today is A.J. Brown, who faces a divisional matchup against the Washington Commanders. The Eagles quieted the noise about their lack of a passing attack last week with their win over the Steelers. Jalen Hurts had 290 yards passing and three total touchdowns.

Jalen Hurts to AJ Brown! TOUCHDOWN.

📺: #PITvsPHI on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/rx60yj7zQc

— NFL (@NFL) December 15, 2024

Brown also had a productive day, catching eight passes for 110 yards and a score. Bovada lists him at +120 odds to score again this week against the Commanders. Brown started the season with a touchdown in each of his first three games but has scored just twice since.

Philadelphia needs another big game from its passing offense, including Brown, put any concerns about its passing game to rest. Also, Washington will sell out to try to contain MVP candidate Saquon Barkley. That will open up the defense for Brown, and he should find the endzone at least once against the Commanders this week.

Rhamondre Stevenson Over 45.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

New England is a 14-point underdog this week in their first of two matchups against Buffalo. The Patriots will be lucky to stay competitive against a Bills team that has scored 90 points over the last two games. New England must control the clock to have any shot at pulling off the upset this week.

The good news for the Patriots is that the Bills’ rush defense is subpar. Buffalo has allowed 127.4 rushing yards per game, the 12th-most in the NFL, and allows 4.7 YPC, tied for the sixth-most. Rhamondre Stevenson should be poised for a big day against Buffalo on Sunday.

Stevenson is averaging 56.9 rushing YPG this year, but Bovada has the fourth-year back listed at over/under 45.5 rush yards in the current NFL player props for Sunday. Buffalo has had an emotional last two weeks and could overlook the Patriots as they start to prepare for the playoffs. New England will lose, but Stevenson will cover his rushing total on Sunday against Buffalo.

Sam Darnold Over Passing 1.5 TDs (-125)

Minnesota is half a game behind the Lions for the NFC North title. The Vikings face tough matchups at Seattle and against Green Bay before their showdown with the Lions in Week 18. To have a chance at winning the division and potentially claiming the number one seed, Minnesota needs a win this week.

𝐕𝐢𝐤𝐢𝐧𝐠𝐬 𝐃𝐨𝐦𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐭𝐞#Skol are 12-2 on the season after a 30-12 win over the Bears on Monday night.

Hear how it sounded as Sam Darnold connected with Justin Jefferson on this 7-yard touchdown.

🗣️: Kevin Harlan & @kurt13warner pic.twitter.com/oQuyhzFJcx

— Westwood One Sports (@westwood1sports) December 17, 2024

Free agent signee Sam Darnold has more than exceeded expectations this year as the Vikings quarterback. Darnold has 29 passing touchdowns and 11 interceptions so far as Minnesota’s starter. The journeyman quarterback is listed at over/under 1.5 passing touchdowns in this week’s NFL player prop projections.

Darnold and company face the Seahawks in Seattle, and I expect him to cover his passing touchdowns total. Seattle gave up 30 points in last week’s loss to Green Bay, including two passing scores to Jordan Love. Minnesota will be able to exploit similar holes in the Seahawks’ defense, and Darnold should have at least two passing scores on Sunday.

Jauan Jennings Over 59.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

The final spot on my list of the best NFL player props tonight is for Jauan Jennings to have over 59.5 receiving yards. San Francisco’s offense struggled in the rain in the 49ers’ 12-6 win to the Rams on Thursday Night Football last week.

Jennings and Deebo Samuel both struggled to catch the ball, combining for five catches on 16 targets. I think Jennings, who led the team in targets last week, will have a better game this week against Miami.

The team’s passing defense allows just 204.9 passing YPG, the eight-fewest in the NFL. However, Jennings and company need a bounce-back performance after their bad game last week. The receiver should see at least half a dozen targets, which should be enough to go over his receiving yards total against the Dolphins in Miami.