NFL Week 15 Underdog Picks: Who Will Deliver an Upset?

Dolphins to Beat Texans (+137)

The Miami Dolphins (6-7) and Houston Texans (8-5) square off in a crucial matchup in the AFC on Sunday afternoon! Miami has won four of their last five games, playing much better football with QB Tua Tagovailoa back at the controls.

In addition to the four wins, the Dolphins nearly knocked off a very good Buffalo Bills team before winning three straight games. That’s why it’s important not to look at the Dolphins’ record and take it as gospel. Miami are in much stronger form than they were earlier this season.

CLUTCH GENE 🧬 pic.twitter.com/xnxN3VpRFc

— Miami Dolphins (@MiamiDolphins) December 8, 2024

Since returning, Tagovailoa has passed for 15 touchdowns and just one interception! He also completed 78.1% of his passes in November to put himself in elite territory. Along with the offense, the defense has been sneaky good in 2024.

The Dolphins are ninth in the NFL, with an average of 318.4 yards allowed per game. The rush and pass defense have both been ahead of the league average this season. They are seventh against the run and 11th against the pass. So, while the attention is on the Dolphins’ offense, don’t forget about this underrated defense.

Meanwhile, the Texans have fallen below expectations in a year when they had big aspirations. After losing three of their last four games, the Texans struggled to put away the Jacksonville Jaguars last week. Houston held off Mac Jones and the Jags for a narrow 23-20 victory.

Like last season, the offensive line has been problematic and has to be improved before the Texans can be considered a Super Bowl contender. This matchup should probably be a pick’em, so the Dolphins for your NFL underdog bets is worth a look at +137!

Browns to Beat Chiefs (+185)

Do the Kansas City Chiefs (12-1) have any more horseshoes left to make it to Super Bowl 59? It was another week and another close win for the Chiefs. They are coming off a nail-biter over the Chargers by a score of 19-17.

Chiefs’ fans are getting used to these heart-stopping wins but would rather enjoy more comfortable victories that don’t require having 911 on speed dial. The win is the second consecutive victory for the Chiefs by a score of 19-17.

A DOINK FOR THE DIVISION! IT'S GOOD! @CHIEFS WIN! pic.twitter.com/RtsINqo05m

— NFL (@NFL) December 9, 2024

Two weeks ago, the Chiefs ousted the lowly Raiders by the same margin! This followed a 30-27 win over the Panthers, a loss against the Bills, and close calls versus the Broncos and Buccaneers.

In any event, the Chiefs have done what is needed to get to 12-1 and clinch the AFC West. They just haven’t looked like a top team that is ready to win their third consecutive Super Bowl, however. It’s never wise to overlook the Chiefs — they could get back to their old ways in a hurry. Nevertheless, the Chiefs look ripe for an upset.

Kansas City’s offense is in the bottom half of the NFL with 338.2 yards per game. A sixth-place ranking on defense is holding the Chiefs up. Meanwhile, the Cleveland Browns (3-10) have been one of the most inconsistent teams in the league.

On one hand, they’ve beaten the Steelers and Ravens. The Browns also went down to the wire against the Broncos and Eagles. And then, they have bad losses against the Giants and Saints. However, the Browns have looked more complete since QB Jameis Winston has taken over.

Jameis Winston is now the all-time single game leader for passing yards Browns franchise history

Also the first Browns QB to throw for 400+ pass yards since 2015 pic.twitter.com/m6ba6XMFZB

— B/R Gridiron (@brgridiron) December 3, 2024

Winston isn’t a long-term solution, but the rest of the team is playing harder with him on the field. Despite a 12-1 record, the Chiefs are 0-7 against the spread (ATS) in their last seven games. Additionally, the Browns are 13-6 against the spread (ATS) in their previous 19 at home.

The Chiefs could be looking ahead to the Texans next week and take their eyes off the Browns. It should be another game that goes down to the final minutes, with the Browns having a chance for an upset! I’ll side with them to finally be the team to nip the Chiefs.

Seahawks to Beat Packers (+129)

The Seattle Seahawks (8-5) and Green Bay Packers (9-4) headline Sunday Night Football. Green Bay is coming off a narrow 34-31 last Thursday night against the Detroit Lions. It was a tough defeat for a Packers squad who are effectively out of the NFC North title race now.

Seattle is in the midst of a tight battle for the divisional crown in the NFC West. Currently, they have the advantage, but there isn’t any room to breathe with the Rams at 7-6. If the Rams had been injury-free this season, they would’ve likely been in the driver’s seat right now.

However, that doesn’t take anything away from the Seahawks, who have won four consecutive games. They are one of the hottest teams in the NHL that the media hasn’t been paying much attention to recently. The Seahawks are coming off a 30-18 win in the desert against the Arizona Cardinals.

Seahawks’ QB Geno Smith didn’t open this season in top form, but he’s been efficient with the ball over the last few weeks. The running game is giving Smith a huge boost after it couldn’t get on track earlier this year, either. RB Zach Charbonnet had a breakout performance with 134 yards and two touchdowns over the Cardinals.

ZACH CHARBONNET 51-YARD TD!

📺: #SEAvsAZ on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/P492n4pkXU

— NFL (@NFL) December 8, 2024

The Seahawks are 5-1 outright in their last six versus the Packers at home. Also, they’ve been a money-maker as of late, covering the spread in four out of five games.

This is an evenly matched game between the Packers and Seahawks. However, I think the Seahawks are slightly disrespected and eager to show they are a true contender. Seattle as a home underdog in primetime is a great option for your Week 5 NFL underdog picks!

1. Identify Teams/Players That Excel as Underdogs

Certain NFL teams prefer to play with their backs against the wall. Some players and head coaches are at their best when they are in an underdog role.

The competitive spirit of wanting to prove doubters wrong can be a strong motivator! One of the most effective ways to identify these squads is to note teams that have a strong record as an underdog on the moneyline.

Additionally, bettors can use against-the-spread (ATS) data to help formulate their game plan. For instance, the Washington Commanders (8-5 ATS), Indianapolis Colts (7-4 ATS), and Cleveland Browns (6-1 ATS) were great underdog NFL picks last season.

I also take note of the record of head coaches and quarterbacks as underdogs! While this isn’t a sure-fire guarantee of success in their next game, it can be used as a guide to tell you which personnel in the NFL “gets up” with their backs against the wall.

2. Compare Matchups/Strengths and Weaknesses

There will always be an underdog and a favorite in every NFL matchup! However, did bookies miss something in their analysis? For instance, does the underdog have one glaring advantage over a weakness of the favorite side?

It requires digging into advanced statistics to find these small edges on the football field. The public and online sportsbooks are well aware of the major mismatches in games. We recommend researching these strengths and weaknesses, but also looking at the game within the game.

For instance, does the favorite have an injury or depth issues flying under the radar that the public is ignoring? Injuries to star players aren’t the only determining factor in the result of games.

The health and status of the offensive line is also a huge factor that can’t be ignored! There are great teams in the NFL that can crumble due to problems in the trenches, so always check on this aspect for your best underdog picks in the NFL.

3. Look for Letdown and Look-ahead Spots

Recency bias plays a huge role in how point spreads and NFL odds are crafted. Bettors react to what just happened instead of looking at the whole picture.

Following a big win, the line is generally impacted in favor of this team the ensuing week. It’s important to keep in mind that letdowns can happen afterward. This is especially true for mediocre to good teams that aren’t quite in elite territory.

However, it can bite any team in the NFL who isn’t prepared, especially on a short week! Thursday Night Football has a knack of sneaking up on teams only days following a signature victory.

Conversely, there is the classic look-ahead spot of favorites having their attention on a more formidable opponent or rivalry matchup the following week. These teams tend to go through the motions and fail to focus on the task at hand!

4. Line Movement and Line Shopping Are Key

I always monitor line movement throughout the week for my best NFL underdog picks and other selections. It’s also worth researching where the money is flowing, and which team is seeing the biggest bets.

If the shift isn’t following the bets on a public favorite, bookmakers are confident that they have it right and not the majority of bettors. In some instances, there is reverse line movement, where the odds move against the money.

When making your selections for our free NFL pick’em contest, it’s also worth keeping this important tip in mind!

Additionally, line shop for the best odds across multiple sports betting apps and sites. It can be the difference between winning and losing your best NFL underdog picks this week! Let’s examine a quick example between two popular bookies:

Bovada:

• • New England Patriots +8.5 (-115)
  • Cincinnati Bengals -8.5 (-105)

BetOnline:

• • New England Patriots +9 (-112)
  • Cincinnati Bengals -9 (-108)

If you like the Patriots as an underdog, consider placing your bets at BetOnline! Not only are the odds better at -112, but you’re getting an extra 0.5 points on the point spread.

The Sports Geek recommends checking out the odds at these reputable sportsbooks:

• Bovada
• Betwhale
• BetOnline
• BetUS