NFL Week 16 Underdog Picks: Who Will Deliver an Upset?

Bears to Beat Lions (+250)

The Bills snapped the Lions’ 11-game winning streak last week, handing Detroit its first loss since Week 2. Detroit’s injuries finally caught up with them, and last week’s loss could carry over into this week. The Lions face the Bears in Chicago, and I think the Bears are a good bet to upset the NFC North division leader.

The #Lions lost DT Alim McNeill (torn ACL), RB David Montgomery (MCL), CB Carlton Davis (broken jaw), and CB Khalil Dorsey (leg fracture) in a single game.

As brutal as it gets. pic.twitter.com/Tp3hBIjraK

— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) December 16, 2024

Chicago nearly beat Detroit on Thanksgiving, but a coaching error cost the Bears valuable time at the end of the game. The Bears have lost eight straight games but have kept most of their divisional opponents close.

Caleb Williams and company must capitalize on the Lions’ defensive injuries to upset Detroit. The Lions have allowed 99 points in their last three games, including 31+ in their previous two games. A second straight loss would be devastating for Detroit’s playoff standing, but given their injuries, there may be little the Lions can do to avoid it.

Chicago has had its fair share of struggles, so betting on the Bears to end their losing streak is risky. However, at +250 odds, Williams and the Bears are a good underdog pick against a Detroit team that is reeling.

Titans to Beat Colts (+170)

Another underdog that can upset a divisional opponent this weekend is the Tennessee Titans. The Titans finally pulled the plug on the Will Levis era, benching the third-year quarterback in favor of Mason Rudolph.

Nick Holz on Mason Rudolph giving the #Titans a better chance to win. pic.twitter.com/meEH1GUcYG

— TURRON DAVENPORT (@TDavenport_NFL) December 19, 2024

Rudolph is just 1-2 as a starter for Tennessee this year but deserves some credit for one of Levis’s two wins this year. The backup stepped in for an injured Levis in Week 4, helping Tennessee win 31-12 over the Dolphins on Monday Night Football.

Indianapolis lost last week in Denver after allowing the Broncos to score 24 unanswered points. The Broncos’ offensive run was sparked by an unforced Jonathan Taylor fumble at the goal line.

Losing is one thing, but the manner in which the Colts lost last week takes a toll on the team. A demoralized Indy squad could be the perfect opponent for the struggling Titans. In a holiday miracle of sorts, Rudolph could lead Tennessee to an upset win over Indianapolis this weekend.

Commanders to Beat Eagles (+163)

A third divisional upset I think we could see this week is the Commanders (+163) beating the Eagles. Philadelphia (12-2) has won 10 straight games, but I do not believe they will finish the season undefeated. Washington is the perfect opponent to snap Philly’s winning streak.

The Eagles beat the Commanders 26-18 on Thursday Night Football in Week 11. That game was in Philadelphia, but Washington will have the home-field advantage in the rematch.

.@JayD__5 has officially tied the record for most Rookie of the Week awards 👏@pepsi | #ProBowlVote pic.twitter.com/juduRg0JUs

— Washington Commanders (@Commanders) December 19, 2024

Washington nearly squandered a 20-7 fourth-quarter lead last week. The Commanders must step up their game to upset Philadelphia and avoid the mistakes that almost cost them a week ago. A significant advantage for the Commanders this week will be the presence of Marshon Lattimore.

He did not play in the first matchup against the Eagles. Lattimore was dealing with a hamstring injury and had only joined the team via trade a week before.

With Lattimore now healthy, the Commanders should have an easier time defending the Eagles passing attack. If they can also stiffen up their run defense, Washington could hand Philadelphia its first loss since Week 4.

1. Identify Teams/Players That Excel as Underdogs

Certain NFL teams prefer to play with their backs against the wall. Some players and head coaches are at their best when they are in an underdog role.

The competitive spirit of wanting to prove doubters wrong can be a strong motivator! One of the most effective ways to identify these squads is to note teams that have a strong record as an underdog on the moneyline.

Additionally, bettors can use against-the-spread (ATS) data to help formulate their game plan. For instance, the Washington Commanders (8-5 ATS), Indianapolis Colts (7-4 ATS), and Cleveland Browns (6-1 ATS) were great underdog NFL picks last season.

I also take note of the record of head coaches and quarterbacks as underdogs! While this isn’t a sure-fire guarantee of success in their next game, it can be used as a guide to tell you which personnel in the NFL “gets up” with their backs against the wall.

2. Compare Matchups/Strengths and Weaknesses

There will always be an underdog and a favorite in every NFL matchup! However, did bookies miss something in their analysis? For instance, does the underdog have one glaring advantage over a weakness of the favorite side?

It requires digging into advanced statistics to find these small edges on the football field. The public and online sportsbooks are well aware of the major mismatches in games. We recommend researching these strengths and weaknesses, but also looking at the game within the game.

For instance, does the favorite have an injury or depth issues flying under the radar that the public is ignoring? Injuries to star players aren’t the only determining factor in the result of games.

The health and status of the offensive line is also a huge factor that can’t be ignored! There are great teams in the NFL that can crumble due to problems in the trenches, so always check on this aspect for your best underdog picks in the NFL.

3. Look for Letdown and Look-ahead Spots

Recency bias plays a huge role in how point spreads and NFL odds are crafted. Bettors react to what just happened instead of looking at the whole picture.

Following a big win, the line is generally impacted in favor of this team the ensuing week. It’s important to keep in mind that letdowns can happen afterward. This is especially true for mediocre to good teams that aren’t quite in elite territory.

However, it can bite any team in the NFL who isn’t prepared, especially on a short week! Thursday Night Football has a knack of sneaking up on teams only days following a signature victory.

Conversely, there is the classic look-ahead spot of favorites having their attention on a more formidable opponent or rivalry matchup the following week. These teams tend to go through the motions and fail to focus on the task at hand!

4. Line Movement and Line Shopping Are Key

I always monitor line movement throughout the week for my best NFL underdog picks and other selections. It’s also worth researching where the money is flowing, and which team is seeing the biggest bets.

If the shift isn’t following the bets on a public favorite, bookmakers are confident that they have it right and not the majority of bettors. In some instances, there is reverse line movement, where the odds move against the money.

When making your selections for our free NFL pick’em contest, it’s also worth keeping this important tip in mind!

Additionally, line shop for the best odds across multiple sports betting apps and sites. It can be the difference between winning and losing your best NFL underdog picks this week! Let’s examine a quick example between two popular bookies:

Bovada:

• • New England Patriots +8.5 (-115)
  • Cincinnati Bengals -8.5 (-105)

BetOnline:

• • New England Patriots +9 (-112)
  • Cincinnati Bengals -9 (-108)

If you like the Patriots as an underdog, consider placing your bets at BetOnline! Not only are the odds better at -112, but you’re getting an extra 0.5 points on the point spread.

The Sports Geek recommends checking out the odds at these reputable sportsbooks:

• Bovada
• Betwhale
• BetOnline
• BetUS