Can a Tour de France 2024 sleeper upset Jonas Vingegaard and Tadej Pogacar to win the race this year? Anything can happen throughout a grueling 21-day race, so it’s important to include at least a few underdogs, given the high odds for the longshots at the top cycling betting sites.
Also, Vingegaard’s status for the Tour de France is currently in doubt. The back-to-back winner is trying to regain his fitness after a scary crash in the Itzulia Basque Country.
Does this leave the door wide open for a shocking win? Pogacar might have something to say about that, but there are some talented dark horses in the field. Check out my favorite Tour de France longshots below!
2024 Tour de France Sleepers: Summary
| RIDER | ODDS | SPORTSBOOK |
|---|---|---|
| Egan Bernal (Without Vingegaard) | +2500 | BetUS |
| Jai Hindley (Without Vingegaard) | +4000 | BetUS |
| Carlos Rodriguez | +2500 | 22Bet |
| Aleksandr Vlasov (Without Vingegaard) | +8000 | Bet365 |
If Vingegaard doesn’t enter the Tour de France, or he and Pogacar experience a mishap, the race will be wide open. Currently, the 2024 Tour de France odds without Vingegaard, point to Pogacar winning at -250.
As we saw in the Basque Country, mistakes and unforeseen accidents are part of cycling. Who is the most likely to take advantage of an error from the top contenders? Let’s dive into my analysis of the top Tour de France sleepers:
Egan Bernal (+2500)
Colombian rider Egan Bernal is another emerging talent in the world of long-distance cycling. Rodriguez’s INEOS Grenadiers teammate is having a consistent campaign through May.
Bernal has finished in the top 10 in all five of his GC events this season. That includes three top 5 finishes in the Tour Colombia (P5), O Gran Camino (P3), and Volta Ciclista a Catalunya (P3).
He is showing great improvement from last season. Bernal had just two top-10 GC finishes and no top-5 performances. Additionally, he was P36 in the general classification for the 2023 Tour de France.
With Bernal showing gains, and INEOS Grenadiers overall as a team, he has top betting value to win at +2500, especially since the current offer at BetUS excludes Vingegaard!
Finishing second after the top favorite would be enough, so the odds are just too good to ignore.
Jai Hindley (+4000)
If Jai Hindley can find some of his earlier form this year, he should have a respectable chance of playing spoiler at the 2024 Tour de France. Among the sleepers for Tour de France 2024, Hindley is a rider to consider at +4000.
The 28-year-old native of Perth, Australia, finished P5 in the Volta a la Comunitat Valenciana. He followed up with another strong showing in the Tirreno-Adriatico for P3 in the general classification.
Hindley has tasted success in marquee GC events in the past. He captured the 2022 Giro d’Italia and finished strong in the Tour de France last year. Hindley captured Stage 5 and had six top-10 finishes.
The P7 general classification was considered a big success for Hindley. He is due for more improvement at the 2024 Tour de France this year. Currently, Hindley has an implied probability of winning of 2.4%!
I see Hindley having around a 5% chance, so he is worth a small bet to win the Tour de France 2024 at +4000 odds. Once again, that’s with Vingegaard excluded from the field, which is an extra bonus.
Carlos Rodriguez (+2500)
INEOS Grenadiers’ Carlos Rodriguez is ready to compete in his second Tour de France. A year after the 23-year-old impressed in his Tour debut, Rodriguez is back looking to grow even more as a GC rider.
The Spaniard won Stage 14 and moved up into P3 in the 2023 Tour de France. He ultimately finished P5 in the general classification. It was a strong performance for a young rider in his first-ever start.
Following a couple of shaky races this season, Rodriguez turned his 2024 campaign around in the Basque Country and Tour de Romandie. He was one of the beneficiaries of the Vingegaard incident in Spain. Rodriguez won the final stage and finished P2 in the general classification in the Basque Country.
Most recently, Rodriguez won the general and youth classification in the Tour de Romandie in April. He’s having a solid season, as is INEOS Grenadiers. They’re in top form and heading into the 2024 Tour de France with momentum.
Rodriguez is among the best Tour de France sleepers to consider for the 2024 race at odds of +2500 or more!
Aleksandr Vlasov (+8000)
Bora-Hansgrohe’s Aleksandr Vlasov is up against long odds at +8000, but I spot some value here. Will he have to catch a big break? That is likely going to be the case. Vlasov can’t depend on skill alone.
However, if chaos ensues, he could be in position to overtake the leading contenders. He’s been in his best form over the last few months. The Russian is riding high entering the Tour de France.
Vlasov has finished P3, P5, P4, and P2 in four GC races this year! His consistent work includes a Stage 3 victory in Nice. The strong form carried over from his final two GC events in 2023.
The 28-year-old finished P2 in the Vuelta a Burgos and P7 in the general classification in the La Vuelta. If you’re looking for 2024 Tour de France longshots, Vlasov deserves some attention.
