2024 Billboard Music Awards Odds – Who Topped The Charts?

It should come as no surprise that Taylor Swift (-500) is a runaway favorite to win after The Tortured Poets Department.

However, Sabrina Carpenter (+350) had a phenomenal 2024 with her album, Short N’ Sweet, anchored by her hits, “Espresso”, and “Please Please Please”.

The rest of the artists here, Zach Bryan (+800), Drake (+1000), and Morgan Wallen (+1200) are long shots, and it’s going to be a competition between the ladies of pop music.

I will note that, it is interesting that the top two albums on Billboard’s Top 50 Albums of 2024, didn’t make this category. Charli XCX (Brat) and Beyoncé (Cowboy Carter) were left out.

I think Carpenter should win, but Swift will take it based on her cultural impact, and the wild success of her Eras Tour, which ended on December 8 in Vancouver. “Fortnight” is getting love from the Grammys Awards odds for Song and Record of the Year, but Swift can be heard on the radio at any time, and any number of songs.

You could argue that the beef between Kendrick Lamar and Drake has been the story of the year in music, and Lamar has parlayed that into the Super Bowl halftime show! Most of Lamar’s songs in the beef, including “Not Like Us” and “Euphoria”, have spent time at the top of the Billboard charts.

Musically, it has been a quiet year for Drake (+250), who fired off a couple of shots in the beef, but nothing like Lamar. Travis Scott (+700) has also been quiet by his standards. It’s also ironic that Metro Boomin’ (+700) and Future (+800) are nominated as their track, “Like That” kicked off the beef with a Lamar verse.

Kendrick Lamar is the easy Billboard Music Award prediction here after the year he had, even if the odds don’t offer a large return.

Lamar is going out on tour in 2025 with SZA (-180), who was featured on Lamar’s GNX. But overall, she hasn’t released an album in 2024, so I find it strange that she is valued so highly in these Billboard Music Award odds. The same goes for The Weeknd (+300), whose Hurry Up Tomorrow is slated to be released in January 2025.

Brent Faiyaz (+600) and Tommy Richman (+700) both had good years, but neither of them had a better year than Tyla (+300). The South African singer won the Grammy for Best African Music Performance for “Water”, bringing Afro beats to the mainstream. While SZA and The Weeknd continue to receive radio play, it’s for older songs.

I’m giving the nod to Tyla for this Billboard Music Award prediction at online sportsbooks!

Zach Bryan (-500) has done an interesting rebrand, as he came up in the industry as a country artist. But with his last two albums, including 2024’s The Great American Bar Scene, Bryan is moving more towards a rock sound, and this album had features from Bruce Springsteen and John Mayer. However, The Great American Bar Scene is still twinged with enough country that you wonder, is this a rock album?

You could make the same argument about Jelly Roll (+600), whose album has a couple of hip-hop features, and there is definitely a country sensibility about the artist.

You could argue that Linkin Park (+600) is the only “rock” artist in this category, as they replaced their lead singer, the late Chester Bennington, with Emily Armstrong. But they just released From Zero in November 2024.

Hozier (+1000) and Noah Kahan (+1000) offer excellent returns, but they don’t have a realistic chance of winning.

I’ll stick with the favorite and recommend a wager on Zach Bryan at -500 to throw into a parlay bet here. If the Linkin Park album had come earlier in the year, I would lean that way, but Bryan has been at the top of the Billboard charts for most of the year, across multiple categories.