The 2025 Canada federal election odds are forecasting a massive win for the Conservatives. Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party have been in power since 2015, but confidence has eroded in Trudeau, who has since stepped down as the party leader.
That has led to a considerable push by Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party, and they’re massive favorites heading into 2025. Can the Liberals fight back in the post-Trudeau era, or will the other parties have a say in how the Canada election predictions pan out?
I’m going to examine the current Canada next election odds and give you my predictions. The election is on April 28, 2025. I’ll explain how that works, and more, below!
Canada Federal Election 2025 Betting Odds
The following Canadian Election odds are courtesy of BetUS:
| CANDIDATES | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Pierre Poilievre (Conservative) | +185 |
| Mark Carney (Liberal) | -280 |
But on March 28, new Liberal leader Mark Carney was -120. On March 9, Carney is now -280 to be Canada’s next Prime Minister after the election on April 28! That gives Carney an implied win probability of 73.7%. That is a gigantic shift in the Canadian Federal Election odds!
Pierre Poilievre (+180) of the Conservatives still has a chance with an implied win chance of 35.7%. Canada’s trade war with Donald Trump and the United States has had a huge effect on Poilievre. The Conservative leader is seen to be too similar to Trump for the liking of many Canadians. Some political experts claim that Poilievre needs to distance himself from Trump.
However, as we’ve seen in the United States, the odds at political betting sites don’t always tell the whole story. We’ll have to wait until April 28 to see where the votes fall!
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Prop Bets on the Canadian Election
You can also find some prop bets on the 2025 Canadian election, if you’re looking for wagers to make outside of the outright Prime Minister. For example, you can bet on:
- Liberals to win a Majority?
- Popular Vote
- Total Conservative Seats (in batches of ten)
- Total Liberal Seats (in batches of ten)
- Total Bloc Québécois Seats (in batches of ten)
- Total NDP Seats (in batches of ten)
You can bet on these Canadian election props and more at BetUS at Sportsbook > Politics > Canada Politics Futures, and then you’ll see options for Federal Election, Prime Minister, Referendums, Party Leaders, Referendum on Monarchy, and Specials. Click them all, then Display Selected, and you’ll have access to all the Canadian election betting markets you want!
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2025 Canada Federal Election Key Info
Here is some information you need to know when betting on the next Canadian federal election in 2025.
When Is the Next Canadian Election?
The next Canadian federal election is scheduled to take place on Monday, April 28, 2025. Instead of waiting until October 20, 2025, Carney called a snap election to try to build on recent momentum.
Prime Ministers in Canada have the power to call a snap election, or an election earlier than originally scheduled, when they so choose. This is often done when the current cabinet believes they have an upper hand.
With Carney taking over for Trudeau and not assuming his position via a Federal Election, public pressure was on the Liberal Party to call an election sooner rather than later.
How Does the Canadian Electoral Process Work?
Canadians aged 18 years and older can vote across the country to elect 343 people to the House of Commons. If a party wins 50% or more of the seats, that is a majority government. If that party wins the most seats but it’s not 50% or more, it’s a minority government. In that case, the winning party has to work with other parties to pass bills.
What Happens After the Election?
It all depends on if there is a majority or minority government. A majority government has the power to pass bills without the support of the opposition. After the 2021 election in September, in which the Liberals won a minority government, members were sworn in a month after the election in October.
2025 Canada Federal Election Candidates
The 2025 Canadian election betting odds suggest it’s a two-candidate race between Carney and Poilievre. The NDP’s Jagmeet Singh is regarded as the third candidate in the race, but has effectively already lost. That brings us to our breakdown of Carney and Poilievre’s chances on April 28:
Conservatives: Is This Their Election to Lose?
Poilievre says that he is a “tough guy” who can take on Trump, and Trump responded by claiming that Poilievre was “no friend of mine”. However, it doesn’t seem like many Canadians believe him.
A lot of Poilievre’s messaging during the election run-up is very Trump-like. For example, in the CBC article linked above.
“He said the president wants “weak, compromised and conflicted leadership.… That’s why he endorsed Mark Carney yesterday.”
Trump did not mention either Poilievre or Carney by name in his remarks or formally endorse anyone, the article noted.
Mark Carney will keep the same Liberal policies that blocked the mines, pipelines, and energy projects Canada needs – keeping us dependant on the Americans.
Canadians can’t afford a fourth Liberal Term.
Vote for Change. Vote Conservative. pic.twitter.com/MY8H20KPWA
— Conservative Party (@CPC_HQ) April 7, 2025
But the Conservatives aren’t out of the race yet, particularly in Alberta, where 30% of Albertans want to leave Canada if the Liberals win. Alberta has always been a Conservative foothold in Canada, so that’s not surprising.
But in Ontario, Premier Doug Ford, who is a Conservative, has spoken out loudly against Trump and the trade war. Infighting in the Conservative Party isn’t good for their chances, and Poilievre might have to pull out all the stops to overcome these Canadian election odds.
Liberals: Can They Complete the Comeback?
It has been a stunning turn of events for the Liberals, and many wonder why it took so long for Justin Trudeau to step down. It should be said that it is fortunate for the Liberals that the trade war came when it did, and most of the Conservative Party fumbled it. Carney is measured in his responses, and when Poilievre discussed his haircut, Carney replied:
“Pierre Poilievre was not at any of those tables, was not given any of that responsibility and … in subsequent years has not gained any responsibilities in managing crises.”
Canada will lead. #CanadaStrong pic.twitter.com/JoBKtw7DnN
— Liberal Party (@liberal_party) April 9, 2025
Carney noted that he was an MP in Stephen Harper’s government before Trudeau was in office, and he was helping to make decisions during the 2008 financial crisis. It should also be said Poilievre is endorsed by Harper, but some think that could also be a bad strategy for the Conservatives.
The Liberal leader is a steady hand for the party since Trudeau stepped down, but he hasn’t won yet, so there is still work to do. Carney has been campaigning in Alberta recently, and he was born in the Northwest Territories, but actually grew up in Edmonton, so he has roots in Alberta.
The finish line is in sight as Carney leads the 2025 Canadian Federal election odds, but it’s not over yet!
The Rest of the Canadian Political Parties
With Carney and Poilievre well ahead of the rest of the field, there aren’t 2025 Canada election betting odds on any of the other parties winning. However, let’s take a quick look at the other options on the ballot for April 28:
Bloc Québécois
The Bloc Québécois hail from Quebec, and was founded in 1991. Their platform is that Quebec separates from the rest of the country and become an independent nation. They only run in Quebec, so they couldn’t have a majority government, even if they wanted to. In 2021, the Bloc picked up 32 seats, and 7.6% of the popular vote.
Their focus is on Quebec, and defending the interests of that province, and they’re not really aligned with any other party. This takes away votes from everyone else, and it’s substantial when you realize Quebec has around 9.1 million people.
Obviously, everyone isn’t legal to vote in that number, but it’s still significant enough to cause a shift. However, it’s very interesting that they’re now third in the Canada Federal Election odds for 2025 as they’ve never been a serious threat to lead the country.
New Democratic Party
The New Democratic Party have been the third party in Canada for years now, and they picked up 24 seats in the 2021 election, and 17.8% of the popular vote.
The NDP was in an alliance with the Liberals that came to an end in September 2024, when NDP leader Jagmeet Singh ended a supply-and-confidence deal with the Liberals.
Singh has no chance to win the 2025 Canadian Federal Election. The only question now for the NDP is how many seats they are going to lose in this election!
Green Party
The Green Party won just two seats in 2021, which was down from three seats in 2019. Their policies are focused on the environment, and in 2022, they brought back Elizabeth May. She was their first member of Parliament back in 2011.
The Green Party doesn’t say they are left or right-leaning when it comes to the political spectrum, but they probably identify more with the left. However, it’s no surprise that their Canada Federal Election betting odds have been removed from the board, as their chances are non-existent!
People’s Party of Canada
The People’s Party of Canada didn’t win a single seat in 2021, although they picked up 4.9% of the popular vote, which is higher than the Green Party. The PPC is closer to the far-right part of the spectrum, with strong opinions on immigration, abortion, and more.
While they didn’t win any seats, the PPC did increase their percentage of the popular vote, which is something to keep an eye on. Nevertheless, they aren’t a serious contender to compete with the Conservatives and Liberals.
What Experts are Saying About the Canadian Election
Until the Canadian election on April 28, and likely long after, you’ll see a lot of election coverage at Canada’s biggest news sites. Here is what some of them are saying about how the election could go down,, and what could impact the Canadian election betting odds:
- City News – What Canadians Could Encounter When Crossing The U.S. Border
- CBC – Poilievre Boasts of Rally Sizes, But Does it Matter?
- Toronto Sun – Liberals Stealing Conservative Promises
What Are the Polls Saying?
There are numerous polls tracking the potential outcome of the 2025 Canadian election. Of course, take them with a grain of salt as things could change right up until people head to the polls on April 28. The election outcome betting odds in Canada won’t necessarily reflect what the actual outcome will be, as we saw in the United States.
From Abacus Data (April 9):
From Liaison Strategies (April 9):
2025 Canada Election Predictions and Betting Pick
The Canadian election odds are leaning heavily towards the Liberals, but we’ve seen the odds be wrong before, not just in North America, but all over the world. This election would represent one of the biggest come from behind wins in Canadian history! If the Liberals can claw all the way back to victory, it would be a monumental collapse for Poilievre and the Conservatives. However, I still believe that the race is far from over.
Despite the media and polls saying otherwise, Poilievre still has some fight in him. Some of his rallies are attracting huge crowds, so there appears to be support for him among the public. Additionally, keep in mind that Harris saw a huge boost in the polls after Joe Biden stepped down in the US election last year.
We might be seeing something similar with Carney on April 28. Polls aren’t the ultimate deciding factor in how elections play out and can be misleading in some instances.
The fact of the matter is that many Canadians haven’t forgiven the Liberal Party for skyrocketing costs of living, and Poilievre still has that to lean on massively. Carney’s cabinet is made up of many former Trudeau’s ministers, including the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mélanie Joly.
I don’t anticipate a majority government for the Conservatives — this election may go down to the wire. For my 2025 Canadian Federal Election predictions and top pick, I’m giving the small edge to Poilievre to pull it out at the finish line, and now at +180, there’s some value on the table!
Where to Bet on the 2025 Canada Election?
The 2025 Canada federal election will take place on April 28, 2025. There will be more betting markets as we get closer to election day, where you should be able to find props that offer a bit more value.
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