The 2025 Canada federal election odds are forecasting a massive win for the Conservatives. Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party have been in power since 2015, but confidence has eroded in Trudeau.
That has led to a considerable push by Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party, and they’re massive favorites heading into 2025. Can Trudeau and the Liberals fight back, or will the other parties have a say in how the Canada election predictions pan out?
I’m going to examine the current Canada next election odds and give you my predictions. The election isn’t until October 2025, although it could be called earlier. I’ll explain how that works, and more, below!
Canada Federal Election 2025 Betting Odds
| PARTY | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Conservative | -1000 |
| Liberal | +500 |
| New Democratic Party | +4000 |
| Bloc Québécois | +6000 |
| Green Party | +25000 |
| People’s Party of Canada | +50000 |
The Conservative Party (-1000) is way ahead right now, according to political betting sites. That gives the Conservatives a colossal implied probability of 90.9% to win the next Canada election as the current opposition to the Liberals.
The Liberals (+500) currently have a 16.7% implied chance to win at online sportsbooks, and they’re the only realistic opposition to a Conservative majority government. The Liberals and the New Democratic Party (+4000) can’t get on the same page, and that could cost both parties.
The Bloc Québécois (+6000), Green Party (+25000), and the People’s Party of Canada (+50000) will all struggle to get a decent number of votes. None of these parties have historically gotten a good foothold in the House of Commons, but they’ll win a seat or two across the country.
It should also be noted that no party other than the Conservatives and the Liberals has held the office of Prime Minister of Canada.
As we near the election date, you’ll find more betting markets to vote on at Bodog, and you can find these odds by going to Sports > Politics > Canadian Politics > 45th Federal Elections.
If you’re an American player looking to bet on the 45th Canadian federal election, you can find odds at Bovada, where you’ll navigate to Sports > Politics > Canadian Politics > 45th Federal Election.
2025 Canada Federal Election Key Info
Here is some information you need to know when betting on the next Canadian federal election in 2025.
When Is the Next Canadian Election?
The next Canadian federal election is scheduled to take place on, or before, October 20, 2025. It could be held before this date, if there is a dissolving of Parliament, or there is a “no confidence” vote in the House of Commons.
How Does the Canadian Electoral Process Work?
Canadians aged 18 years and older can vote across the country to elect 343 people to the House of Commons. If a party wins 50% or more of the seats, that is a majority government. If that party wins the most seats but it’s not 50% or more, it’s a minority government. In that case, the winning party has to work with other parties to pass bills.
What Happens After the Election?
It all depends on if there is a majority or minority government. A majority government has the power to pass bills without the support of the opposition. After the 2021 election in September, in which the Liberals won a minority government, members were sworn in a month after the election in October.
2025 Canada Federal Election Candidates
There are two candidates with a realistic chance of winning in these 2025 Canada next election odds.
Conservatives: Is This Their Election to Lose?
The Progressive Conservatives (-1000) are taking advantage of a few missteps by Trudeau, including broken conflict of interest rules, and the SNC-Lavalin scandal. Inflation is another mark on the Liberals’ record, and the Conservatives are also pushing for stricter immigration laws, which was also a major point in the United States presidential election.
After nine years of Trudeau, everything is broken.
Thankfully, we have a plan.
A Common Sense Conservative government led by Pierre Poilievre will always put Canada’s workers and Canada’s security first. Sign here to put CANADA FIRST: https://t.co/0iS6y9Kaho pic.twitter.com/ucUQBsQISK
— Conservative Party (@CPC_HQ) November 27, 2024
This Canadian election appears to be more about the Liberals’ issues than the Conservatives’ power, but they also have Poilievre, who is more charismatic than Erin O’Toole, who lost to Trudeau in 2021. The Conservatives picked up 121 seats, but only 33.7% of the popular vote.
Poilievre is using voter fatigue to campaign to those who are simply tired of Trudeau and the Liberal government. It seems like it’s working out well for the Conservatives, who could absolutely win in a landslide.
Liberals: Time to Step Back?
The Liberal Party of Canada (+500) and Trudeau have had their issues for a few years now, and Trudeau made a mistake by calling a snap election in 2021, thinking he was going to win heavily.
It was a narrow Liberal victory, and things haven’t gotten any better for Trudeau, whose father, Pierre, was Canada’s Prime Minister from April 1968 to June 1979, and then again from March 1980 to June 1984. In 2021, Trudeau won 157 seats, but only 32.6% of the popular vote.
This holiday season, we’re delivering a tax break for all Canadians on things like:
🪀 Kids’ toys, clothing, diapers
🍽️ Restaurant dining and take-out
🍷 Wine, beer, and ciderPierre Poilievre voted against our plan – but we’re going to put more money in your pocket.
— Liberal Party (@liberal_party) December 2, 2024
There are many that feel Trudeau should step down as Liberal leader, much like President Joe Biden did for Kamala Harris in the United States. There are even Liberal leaders who want a secret vote to decide if Trudeau should step down. That is damning on Trudeau, who is adamant about staying on, but it might be the Liberals’ downfall.
The Rest of the Canadian Political Parties
Here is a look at the remaining four parties, none of whom have a realistic chance of winning, but they’ll take enough votes to sway the election.
New Democratic Party
The New Democratic Party (+4000) have been the third party in Canada for years now, and they picked up 24 seats in the 2021 election, and 17.8% of the popular vote. T
The NDP was in an alliance with the Liberals that came to an end in September 2024, when NDP leader Jagmeet Singh ended a supply-and-confidence deal with the Liberals.
This was a considerable blow to the Liberals, and it appears that both parties are going to lose out to the Conservatives.
Bloc Québécois
The Bloc Québécois (+6000) hail from Quebec, and was founded in 1991. Their platform is that Quebec separates from the rest of the country and become an independent nation. They only run in Quebec, so they couldn’t have a majority government, even if they wanted to. In 2021, the Bloc picked up 32 seats, and 7.6% of the popular vote.
Their focus is on Quebec, and defending the interests of that province, and they’re not really aligned with any other party. This takes away votes from everyone else, and it’s substantial when you realize Quebec has around 9.1 million people. Obviously, everyone isn’t legal to vote in that number, but it’s still significant enough to cause a shift.
Green Party
The Green Party (+25000) won just two seats in 2021, which was down from three seats in 2019. Their policies are focused on the environment, and in 2022, they brought back Elizabeth May. She was their first member of Parliament back in 2011.
The Green Party doesn’t say they are left or right-leaning when it comes to the political spectrum, but they probably identify more with the left. However, they won’t get enough votes or seats to really affect the 2025 Canada election odds.
People’s Party of Canada
The People’s Party of Canada (+5000) didn’t win a single seat in 2021, although they picked up 4.9% of the popular vote, which is higher than the Green Party. The PPC is closer to the far-right part of the spectrum, with strong opinions on immigration, abortion, and more.
While they didn’t win any seats, the PPC did increase their percentage of the popular vote, which is something to keep an eye on. But I wouldn’t take their 2025 Canada election betting odds too seriously.
2025 Canada Election Predictions and Betting Pick
Presently, I can’t give out a recommended bet for the 2025 Canada Election based on the odds. I expect the Conservatives to win handily, but -1000 isn’t good betting value. The only way I see the odds moving towards more value is if there is a scandal on the Conservatives’ side, or if Trudeau steps down as leader of the Liberal Party.
I’m going to stay away from giving a prediction right now, with an eye on the Canada next election odds if the Conservatives get any value. But there is still almost a year until the election, potentially, so watch this space for updates!
Where to Bet on the 2025 Canada Election?
The 2025 Canada federal election will take place in October 2025, at the latest, but it could be called beforehand. There will be more betting markets as we get closer to election day, where you should be able to find props that offer a bit more value.
You can wager on these Canada election predictions at Bodog if you’re a Canadian player! Sign up to Bodog now, and you’ll receive an online sportsbook bonus of 100% matched up to $400 on your first deposit! You’ll also receive 50 free spins to use in their online casino.
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