The Canelo vs. Munguia odds for their highly-anticipated bout are live at sports betting sites, giving me an excellent reason to dissect the fight! As has become customary on Cinco de Mayo, Canelo Alvarez will be featured the weekend of the Mexican holiday.
Fellow countrymen and super middleweight Jaime Munguia will step into the ring looking for a massive upset over the undisputed champion. Alvarez is the first and only undisputed champ in the super middleweight division.
Below, I explore the latest Canelo Alvarez vs. Jaime Munguia betting odds, analyze the match-up, and share my prediction and best bet for the fight!
Canelo Alvarez vs. Jaime Munguia Betting Odds
The following Canelo vs. Munguia odds are courtesy of BetUS:
| FIGHTER | MONEYLINE | TOTAL ROUNDS |
|---|---|---|
| Canelo Alvarez | -650 | Over 10.5 (-275) |
| Jaime Munguia | +425 | Under 10.5 (+220) |
Alvarez (-650) is an overwhelming favorite to defeat Munguia on Saturday, May 4. The undisputed super middleweight champion has an implied probability of 86.7% to defeat Munguia.
If you discuss this fight with most boxing fans, they’d likely claim that Alvarez has more than a 90% chance to win this bout. In any event, oddsmakers expect a long battle between Alvarez and Munguia.
The over/under is set at 10.5 rounds for the 12-round match. At -275, there is an implied chance of 73.3% that this fight will last more than 10.5 rounds.
Tale of the Tape & Fighting Styles
| Canelo Alvarez | FIGHTER | Jaime Munguia |
|---|---|---|
| 33 | Age | 27 |
| 60 | Wins | 43 |
| 2 | Losses | 0 |
| 39 | KO | 34 |
| 5’8” | Height | 6’0” |
| 168 lbs | Weight | 168 lbs |
| 70 ½ inches | Reach | 72 inches |
| Orthodox | Stance | Orthodox |
Munguia is one of the only remaining fighters in this class who might have a chance at Alvarez when he’s in his prime. The confident 27-year-old enters the biggest fight of his career with a perfect record of 43-0-0.
Let’s break down each fighter’s style and recent form to provide us with an accurate Canelo Alvarez vs. Jaime Munguia prediction.
Jaime Munguia
The vast majority of his fights have ended in a KO at a 79% clip. Munguia has a height and slight reach advantage over Alvarez. He is a lanky fighter who often uses the reach to his benefit to win fights.
The “Demolisher of Tijuana” possesses quick hands and above-average strength. Over the last two years, Munguia’s power has improved, and he has become a smarter fighter. His fundamentals in the ring have trended up since then!
Munguia is an aggressive fighter who looks to attack early and often. With a solid chin, he can afford to get aggressive. However, his footwork could be better, and his defense is questionable at times.
If Munguia doesn’t find a way with an impeccable defensive strategy, it could be a long night for the young Mexican fighter from Tijuana at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. On the bright side, he has the cardio and chin to take this to 12 rounds.
Canelo Alvarez
Regarded as the best pound-for-pound boxer in the world, Alvarez does about everything you expect from a fighter of his caliber. He relies heavily on his explosiveness and cinder block fists.
Getting hit squarely by Canelo does not feel great. While Munguia has a decent chin, he has not been hit with Alvarez-level power. Once Munguia gets a couple of those punches out of the way in Round 1 he should settle in.
However, the power punches will add up over the course of a fight. Furthermore, Alvarez backs his fight up with tremendous accuracy and speed. The strong body shots are particularly helpful for Canelo.
Canelo Alvarez has clashed with Titans of the Boxing World. He's taking their best and shrugged it off like, that's all you've got?
Jaime Munguia tests Canelo for the 🇲🇽👑 on May 5 on #PBConPrimeVideo PPV. #CaneloMunguia pic.twitter.com/gsXQDAPs8m
— Premier Boxing Champions (@premierboxing) April 17, 2024
In a fight that should go into the later rounds, this should prove to be a determining factor in the outcome. The quick counterpunches will be a lot for Munguia to handle for 12 rounds!
On top of his physical attributes, Alvarez is as smart and witty as they come in a boxing ring. While Canelo might be exiting the prime of his career, he is still a master at strategizing and very close to his physical peak.
Recent Performances & Form
Munguia is coming off a confidence-building performance against Sam Ryder in January. He ended the bout with a TKO in Round 9. In the biggest challenge of his career, Munguia handled it with a top-class effort.
Note that Alvarez needed to go the distance to beat Ryder in their match, so if you want to compare opponents, that’s working in his favor. Prior to the win over Ryder, Munguia beat Sergiy Derevyanchenko in 12 rounds in June 20221.
Despite a perfect record, there isn’t a fighter of Alvarez’s caliber on his resume.
Munguia’s Last Five Fights:
- WIN vs. John Ryder via TKO – RD9 (Jan. 27, 2023)
- WIN vs. Sergiy Derevyanchenko via unanimous decision (June 10, 2022)
- WIN vs. Gonzalo Gaston Coria via KO – RD3 (Nov. 19, 2022)
- WIN vs. Jimmy Kelly via KO – RD5 (June 11, 2022)
- WIN vs. D’Mitrius Ballard via TKO – RD3 (Feb. 19, 2022)
Alvarez has been dealt two losses in his Hall of Fame career. He went down in September 2013 versus Floyd Mayweather and lost shockingly to Dmitri Bivol by unanimous decision in May 2022.
Since the loss, Alvarez bounced back for three straight wins. In his latest performance, the 60-win fighter dispatched Jermell Charlo by unanimous decision in September 2023.
It’s worth noting that Alvarez hasn’t TKO’d an opponent since 2021 versus Caleb Plant. His last three wins have all gone to the judge’s scoreboards for unanimous decision wins2.
Alvarez still has immense power, but getting older could be taking away a bit of that impact. Nevertheless, Canelo’s tactics have allowed him to win comfortably with accurate counterpunches.
Alvarez’s Last Five Fights:
- WIN vs. Jermell Charlo via unanimous decision (Sept. 30, 2023)
- WIN vs. John Ryder via unanimous decision (May 6, 2023)
- WIN vs. Gennadiy Golovkin via unanimous decision (Sept. 17, 2022)
- LOSS vs. Dmitri Bivol via unanimous decision (May 7, 2022)
- WIN vs. Caleb Plant via TKO – RD11 (Nov. 6, 2021)
Canelo vs. Munguia Prediction and Betting Pick
The Canelo vs. Munguia betting line on the moneyline doesn’t offer solid value on Alvarez. At -650, you would have to lay $650 to win $100!
That isn’t a betting strategy that I recommend using. Instead, check out the variety of prop bets available at BetUS for stronger value plays.
With that in mind, I like Alvarez to rely on his constant counterpunches to outscore Munguia in this fight. The body shots will lead to the struggles for the contender in the later rounds and lack of energy for a serious attack.
Now, Munguia has a formidable chin and stamina, so he should withstand some heavy blows from Alvarez’s strikes. However, the challenger does not have the boxing IQ required at this stage of his career to outbox Alvarez.
Nor does Munguia have the size to overwhelm his countryman. Nevertheless, I expect him to gain the respect of Alvarez in this fight. As I mentioned, Canelo hasn’t won by TKO in three years.
He should hang in there for the bout to go to a decision, so Alvarez by decision is my top Canelo vs. Mungia pick.
More Canelo vs. Munguia Betting Opportunities
The top boxing betting sites have released a variety of exciting Canelo vs. Munguia odds for this highly-anticipated showdown. Whether you want to bet on the winner of the fight, which round the fight will end, or the method of victory, BetUS has you covered with the most odds for Cinco de Mayo in Las Vegas.
For a complete list of the options for your Canelo vs. Munguia picks, check out BetUS today! In addition to an assembly of juicy lines, the sportsbook has a rewarding welcome bonus for new customers, which can be used on big boxing bouts like this one, Lomachenko vs. Kambosos Jr., and more.
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Sources:
Jaime Munguia: Biography, record, fights, and more | ESPN.com. Retrieved From “https://www.espn.com/boxing/story/_/id/39745832/jaime-munguia-biography-boxing-record-fights-more”
Canelo Alvarez: Biography, record, fights, and more | ESPN.com. Retrieved From “https://www.espn.com/boxing/story/_/id/38447326/canelo-alvarez-biography-boxing-record-fights-more”
