The Canelo vs. Scull odds for Saturday’s undisputed super middleweight title fight in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, has Canelo Álvarez as a considerable favorite over William Scull. The bookies aren’t giving Scull much of a chance, and neither are fight fans. Can the Cuban produce one of the biggest upsets in boxing history?
I’ll analyze the Canelo betting odds for the popular Mexican’s quest to be the undisputed super middleweight champion once again, along with a prop or two. Read on for my exploration and picks for this fight!
Canelo Álvarez vs. William Scull Odds
| FIGHTER | MONEYLINE | WILL FIGHT GO DISTANCE |
|---|---|---|
| Canelo Álvarez | -6600 | Yes (+150) |
| William Scull | +1500 | No (-200) |
To no one’s surprise, Alvarez (-6600) opened as a huge favorite, and is now a massive favorite at boxing betting sites with an implied win probability of 98.5%! Scull (+1500) comes back with an implied win chance of 6.25% in what is easily the biggest fight of his career. Alvarez heads into the fight as the WBA, WBC, and The Ring super middleweight champion. Scull is the IBF belt-holder at 168 pounds.
There are also a slew of Canelo fight odds and props for this fight, such as total rounds, whether the fight will go the distance or not, and method of victory. I’ll dig into all of these Canelo vs. Scull odds below!
You can find these Canelo vs. Scull odds at Bovada by heading to Sports > Boxing > Boxing Lines > Saul “Canelo” Alvarez vs. William Scull.
Tale of the Tape and Boxing Styles
| CANELO ÁLVAREZ | FIGHTER | WILLIAM SCULL |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Age | 32 |
| 62 | Wins | 23 |
| 2 | Losses | 0 |
| 2 | Draws | 0 |
| 39 | Knockouts | 9 |
| 5’7 ½” | Height | 5’11” |
| 70 ½” | Reach | 73” |
| Orthodox | Stance | Orthodox |
| Mexican | Nationality | Cuban |
This bout will be fought at 168 pounds, which is the weight limit for super middleweight. Scull has a height and reach advantage over Alvarez, but this won’t be the first time Canelo is the smaller man in the ring. He gets the edge because of his technique and experience as Alvarez has 66 professional fights on his resume.
Scull has the size edge, but has 41 fewer fights in his career, which could work for or against him. The 32-year-old has taken less punishment, but this is also, by far, his biggest fight. He doesn’t have much power as Scull has nine knockouts in his 23-fight career, and none since November 2021, a span of five fights. But Alvarez also hasn’t knocked anyone out since November 2021, and has fought six times during that time, including a loss to Dmitry Bivol.
Still, Alvarez is a dangerous counterpuncher who keeps his opponents at a distance. Alvarez and his team are also fantastic at coming up with a game plan for each opponent, and executing it. If Scull comes out too aggressive, he could find himself looking up at the lights in Riyadh on May 3!
Canelo Álvarez (-6600)
Alvarez was the undisputed super middleweight champion, but he was stripped of the IBF belt in ahead of his last fight against Edgar Berlanga in September 2024. Scull was the mandatory challenger, but Alvarez decided to fight Berlanga instead, and won by unanimous decision.
The Mexican superstar utterly dominated Berlanga, sending him to the mat in the third round with a well-timed left hook. That is Alvarez in a nutshell. He set up the left hook throughout the first two rounds, and his incredible hand speed allowed him to smash Berlanga with the left. He also has a dangerous overhand right, which opponents are wary of. That also allows Alvarez to set up the left.
Alvarez is the biggest draw in boxing right now, but it’s his first-ever fight outside the United States or Mexico. Some think that his most difficult obstacle will be time change as this card starts at 6:00 AM local time, in order to get more pay-per-view buys in North America. However, his opponent will also have to deal with that as well.
William Scull (+1500)
Scull has won his first 23 fights, and defeated Vladimir Shishkin in October 2024 to claim the IBF super middleweight title that was vacated by Alvarez. However, there are some that think it was a controversial decision.
It wasn’t a great performance by Scull, who was hanging on by the end of the 12th round. The Cuban has fought 12-round bouts just four times in his career, so his stamina can be deemed questionable. Scull may have benefitted from some hometown judging in the Shishkin fight, which was held in Falkensee, Germany. The Cuban-born Scull fights out of Berlin, Germany, which is about 50 minutes east of Falkansee. This might also help Scull a little more as it won’t be as drastic of a time change as it is for Alvarez.
But Scull could try to go for a similar game plan against Alvarez, which is to tie him up and frustrate him. Scull didn’t throw many punches against Shishkin, although he was more accurate. But he’ll need the fight of his life to take down Alvarez, and the Cuban might have to increase the aggressiveness to overcome these Canelo vs. Scull odds on Saturday night.
Motivation and Intangibles
With the Canelo vs. Scull odds so lopsided, everyone is going to try to figure out the motivations for both before making their wagers at sports betting sites.
Alvarez – Will Canelo Overlook Scull?
The Canelo Álvarez vs. Terence Crawford odds for a massive super fight in September 2025 could take a big swing, or go off the board completely if Alvarez loses this fight. This bout seems to be a tune-up fight for Alvarez before he meets Crawford, who is moving up an astounding three weight classes to challenge the Mexican boxer.
But Alvarez has dealt with this in the past, and he knows how much is at stake if he loses focus on Scull. The Crawford tilt figures to be a significant money-maker. Not that Alvarez needs the money as he is reportedly worth $250 million. But who doesn’t want more money? If Alvarez loses this fight, the Crawford fight could be off.
Scull – Don’t Leave Anything on the Table
While Scull isn’t particularly aggressive in the first place, he can’t afford to sit back and let Alvarez dictate the terms and pace of the fight. He does have to be careful because of Alvarez’s counterpunching ability, but Scull can’t hold back. The Canelo vs. Scull odds are wildly against him anyway.
A win over Alvarez would vault Scull into the stratosphere! He would be the undisputed super middleweight champion, and would have any number of big-name fights at his disposal, starting with a likely rematch with Alvarez. This is the biggest moment of Scull’s career to date, and he doesn’t have anything to lose. He’s not expected to win anyway, so you might as well go at Alvarez, but with a plan.
Canelo vs. Scull Predictions and Betting Picks
The Canelo vs. Scull odds are backing Alvarez at -6600, but there is basically no return on that. I’m going to dig into the props, which has “Will the Fight Go the Distance” with “Yes” at +150, and “No” coming back at +200. I think Alvarez will win this fight handily, but I think Scull will survive to go all 12 rounds.
Bettors should beware of a late knockout as Scull doesn’t fight for 12 rounds regularly. But I also think Alvarez will take his foot off the gas in the championship rounds, and manage the fight appropriately. You can also find a “Method of Victory” prop, and Alvarez by Decision at +150 is also a nice return for this fight.
Those two are my Canelo vs. Scull predictions for this fight, as the moneyline isn’t worth betting on.
Where to Bet on Canelo vs. Scull Odds?
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