2025 Cotton Bowl Predictions – Will Ohio State or Texas Make It to the CFP Playoff Title Game?

The #8 Buckeyes (12-2) are rolling in the CFB Playoffs, which they kicked off with a 42-17 trouncing of #9 Tennessee, which was played in Columbus.

Next was a rematch against #1 and Big Ten champion Oregon, who beat Ohio State 32-31 in Eugene on October 12. The rematch wasn’t close as the Buckeyes stormed out to a 34-0 lead and cruised to a 42-21 win at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California.

𝐑𝐨𝐬𝐞 𝐁𝐨𝐰𝐥 𝐑𝐞𝐜𝐚𝐩 🆚 Oregon 🌹 pic.twitter.com/vUfIPCZ5qK

— Ohio State Football (@OhioStateFB) January 5, 2025

Quarterback Will Howard has been spectacular in the CFP Playoffs, completing 74.1% of his passes for 630 yards, five touchdowns, and an interception over two games. He also has a stud at receiver in freshman Jeremiah Smith, who has 13 catches for 290 yards and four scores in those two games. The defense has been fantastic against two high-powered offenses in Oregon and Tennessee.

That shouldn’t be a surprise. The Buckeyes are #1 in the country in opponent points per game, opponent yards per game, opponent passing yards per game, and fourth in opponent rushing yards. They sacked Heisman finalist Dillon Gabriel eight times against Oregon.

The concerns about Ohio State have been about QB Howard, who was terrible in the Buckeyes’ 13-10 loss at home to rival Michigan to end the regular season. However, Howard has been utilizing Smith, who is a wildly athletic receiver and should be a contender in next season’s Heisman odds.

It must be noted that the quarterback played Texas three times while at Kansas State, losing of them. But he never had a receiver like Smith there.

The Buckeyes are favored by six points at online sportsbooks, according to the 2025 Cotton Bowl betting odds. They’ll need another big game from Howard against a defense that is just as good as Ohio State’s unit.

The #5 Longhorns (13-2) have had a much different path to the CFB Playoff semifinal, as they first defeated Clemson 38-24 in the first round. Next, they required double overtime to hold off #4 Arizona State 39-31. Texas was up by 16 points in the fourth quarter, but allowed Arizona State to come back and almost take down the Longhorns.

M̶o̶n̶d̶a̶y̶ *Friday* Morning Highlights from the Double OT win! 🎥 ☕#HookEm | #CFBPlayoff pic.twitter.com/kPgRPlgxKM

— Texas Football (@TexasFootball) January 3, 2025

Quarterback Quinn Ewers has been sacked five time in two games. Still, he’s managed to complete 68.8% of his passes for 524 yards, four touchdowns, and two picks in those games. The Longhorns ran for 292 yards against Clemson, thanks to running backs Jaydon Blue (146 yards, two touchdowns) and Quintrevion Wisner (110 yards, two touchdowns).

Texas had to depend on Ewers to make plays against the Sun Devils, and he did with 322 yards, three scores, and a pick.

The Longhorns have been one of the best defenses all season, ranking third in opponent points per game, opponent yards per game, and opponent passing yards per game. They were also 12^th against the run. But Clemson and Arizona State both had success moving the ball against the Longhorns, who were prone to lapses in concentration.

Most of Clemson’s joy came through the air, but Arizona State did whatever they wanted against Texas in the fourth quarter and through overtime. It should be noted that Texas’ defense was on the field for over 30 minutes, so fatigue was a factor.

The Longhorns made just enough plays to beat the Sun Devils, but they’ll have to be much better defensively to overcome the six-point Cotton Bowl odds that they face at college football betting sites.

The Buckeyes’ senior running back has a nose for the end zone with 10 touchdowns this season, and he’s scored twice in each playoff game. If Ohio State gets close, they’re going with Henderson, who hasn’t fumbled once in four years, despite having over 100 carries in each season!

Another Cotton Bowl player prop I like is Ohio State receiver Emeka Egbuka to go over 63.5 receiving yards. The Longhorns are definitely going to tilt the field towards the talented Smith, but Egbuka, a senior, can make them pay. He had 72 yards and a score in the Buckeyes’ win over Oregon, and 81 yards in the Tennessee win, so 63.5 seems like a low number for receiving yards here.

Let’s move over to the Longhorns, where I have their sophomore running back, Quintrevion Wisner, going over 60.5 yards! Wisner ran for 110 yards against Clemson, but had a quiet 45 yards against Arizona as Texas rode Ewers. Ohio State allowed 152 rushing yards against Tennessee, and while they allowed -23 rushing yards against Oregon, that’s misleading. Most of that came from sacking Gabriel eight times, and Oregon had to throw as they were behind quickly. Take Wisner’s 60.5 rushing yards for the over!