Eurovision 2024 Betting Odds and Predictions After The Semifinals

One year after nailing my Eurovision predictions on Sweden taking the crown, I’m back with the highly anticipated 2024 Eurovision betting odds, hoping for more of the same!

In 2024, 37 countries will participate in the Eurovision Song Contest. Romania has opted out, while Luxembourg is back for the first time in over 30 years¹. 

Before proceeding, we recommend accessing our Eurovision betting guide to learn how to bet on Eurovision and much more. Now, let’s delve into the latest Eurovision 2024 odds available at the best entertainment betting sites (updated after the semifinals).

Eurovision 2024 Winner Odds After The Semifinals

The following betting odds for Eurovision are courtesy of BetOnline:

As we approach the Eurovision Grand Final, Croatia (-105) is the odds-on favorite to win the crown. Currently, Croatia’s price equals an implied probability of 51.2%.

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For the first time this season, a country has a better than 50% chance of winning the Eurovision Song Contest. It has been a wide-open event, especially compared to Sweden’s easy win in 2023.

Three weeks ago, Switzerland had the shortest odds to win Eurovision. However, Croatia has fought back to improve from +350 to -105 at BetOnline. Eden Golan, representing Israel, has the second-best odds at +250.

As the second favorite, Israel has an implied chance to win of 28.6%.

Eurovision 2024 Betting Favorite: Croatia (-105)

Croatia has been regarded as one of the top favorites throughout the competition. Now, the country’s Baby Lasagna is the sole favorite to win Eurovision 2024.

The unique singer-songwriter is finding a lot of success with “Rim Tim Tagi Dim”. The song, which can be described as rock, techno, and rap, isn’t everyone’s cup of tea.

Nevertheless, Baby Lasagna’s strong stage presence and ability to connect with the audience is paying dividends. It’s a high-energy song that shows well in person and on television, so there is no surprise that Croatia is having success.

Additionally, the song is in English and not Croatian. While I would like to see a singer win their national language win, English songs have far more success at Eurovision!

Baby Lasagna won the crowd over and has Croatia in the driver’s seat to win Eurovision 2024. According to the latest Eurovision 2024 odds, he won bettors over as well.

Eurovision 2024 Best Value Bet: Italy (+2500)

If you want to back a non-English song, then Italy’s Angelina Mango has what you are looking for. The artist sings her hit pop song, “La noia”, in Italian.

Despite most voters being unfamiliar with the lyrics, the stage presence and the visuals of Mango’s performance are a huge success. Also, regardless of whether the audience understands the lyrics, Mango’s strong voice carries the song!

Typically, danceable upbeat songs can overcome language barriers with ease. The beat and vocal ability of the singer are more important than a power ballad that attempts to evoke an emotional response.

Additionally, Mango’s presence with the orchestra earns top marks. Although Croatia is the clear favorite to win, Italy is worth considering at +2500 odds. A small bet at this generous price make a lot of sense.

Eurovision 2024 Best Longshot Bet: Norway (+17500)

Norway has just an implied probability of winning Eurovision 2024 of 0.6%! That sounds like impossible odds, but among the countries who seem doomed, this is the one to consider.

In a musical production that translates well on the big stage, consider including Norway’s Gåte on your shortlist of Eurovision Song Contest bets.

The song “Ulveham” isn’t getting as much hype as the top contenders on social media outlets, but it should garner attention once the band is on the Eurovision stage. Gåte’s stage presence is likely to push this band forward in televoting.

To advance to the Grand Final, it’s important to have a performance that gets the attention of viewers at home. “Ulveham” has the potential to exceed expectations in this regard.

The Norwegian folk-rock band infuses elements of electronica into their songs. Although Gåte’s catalog of music isn’t for everyone, “Ulveham” should appeal to a wide audience at home.

Before confirming your Eurovision betting picks, consider adding a value bet to your card. What constitutes quality betting value? Norway’s price to win is certainly top value at +17500. The country has a better chance to win than 0.6%, so they are worth a small bet in the Grand Final.

Past Eurovision Song Contest Winners

In 2023, Loreen was the odds-on favorite to win Eurovision 2023 from the initial stages. She stood above the rest for her song “Tattoo”. There were no discernible weaknesses in her performance.

Since 2012, Sweden has won the Euro Song Contest three times, the most during that period. Ukraine has an opportunity to join Sweden with three Eurovision titles within the last ten years.

The country won Eurovision in 2016, 2022, and as the favorite in 2024, is on the verge of grabbing another victory. Let’s look back at the last ten years of Eurovision Song Contest winners since 2014:

Eurovision 2024 Betting Picks and Prediction

As the Eurovision Song Contest 2024 winds down, a clear top contender has emerged heading into the Grand Final. It’s been a highly entertaining year, with the likely winner held in great suspense.

Last year, Sweden’s Loreen was the odds-on favorite from the start of the competition. There hasn’t been a true No. 1 contender, but that has changed recently. Croatia’s Baby Lasagna is asserting his dominance over the competition.

The artist’s stage presence is elite, and the song connects in the stadium and with a wide demographic at home. The unique genre isn’t everyone’s favorite, but it’s a high-energy song that will garner plenty of votes.

In conclusion, Croatia’s Eurovision 2024 betting odds are on the upswing for good reason. I am backing the favorite for my Grand Final Eurovision 2024 prediction. Also, consider adding Italy to your card at +2500 odds.

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