Formula 1 2025 Championship Odds: Verstappen’s Drive to Five?

Lando Norris (+190)

McLaren and the 25-year-old Norris had a breakout campaign in 2024. The MCL38 performed better than many pundits expected last year. There were expected to be gains in pace, but not quite to put Norris in a position to compete for a drivers’ championship.

Norris won four races, which included the Miami Grand Prix, Dutch Grand Prix, Singapore Grand Prix, and concluded the year with a win in the season finale in the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix. The win in Miami was the first of his F1 career, and the confidence that came with it was a weapon against the grid.

LANDO NORRIS IS A FORMULA 1 RACE WINNER!

LANDO WINS THE #MIAMIGP!!! 🧡 pic.twitter.com/1wOzrE5vdf

— McLaren (@McLarenF1) May 5, 2024

He finished second in the standings with an average grid position of 4.29 in 2024. This is the best effort of Norris’ career and a massive step forward in his development. If he had more races to play catch up, who knows!

Norris is confident that he can turn the 2025 campaign into a championship. The Brit claims that he is in the shape of his life, including mentally and physically. I want to add that Norris should have plenty of confidence and motivation after what he accomplished a season ago.

If the first day of testing in Bahrain is any indication, Norris and McLaren are going to have another fantastic season. Norris set the pace to edge out Mercedes’ George Russell by 0.157 seconds for the quickest time. From what I witnessed, the MCL39 should be similar to what McLaren put on the grid last year.

Starting off strong 💪

Clocking in at 1:30:43, Lando picks up the @dhl_motorsports fastest lap on day one of #F1Testing ⏱️#F1 #MomentsThatDeliver pic.twitter.com/aVIuR5Tis2

— Formula 1 (@F1) February 26, 2025

The three-day session wasn’t without complications, though. Norris noted that rear instability was a problem on the second day of testing. The rear-end traction wasn’t cooperating on a circuit that notoriously stresses the rear. It isn’t a major concern, but their setup will have to be addressed at similar tracks this year.

Will the MCL39 be able to improve on the race pace from last year? Verstappen remains the stronger driver at this point, so for Norris to win the title, McLaren might have to perform even better than last season. There is certainly a big chance given pre-season testing results, but I foresee similar form in 2025.

In any event, team principal Andrea Stella has this team focused and prepared, which bodes well for their chances!

Max Verstappen (+275)

Despite a few challenges to overcome in 2024 — including a controversy surrounding team principal Christian Horner — Verstappen captured his fourth consecutive drivers’ championship.

The champion joins Sebastian Vettel and Alain Prost in the all-time F1 championship rankings. Now, he has his sights on matching Juan Manuel Fangio’s five championships at only 28 years old later this year.

He will have a new teammate, as Sergio Perez was fired by Red Bull after more poor results in 2024. However, I don’t expect anything to change for Verstappen with Liam Lawson joining the team. The younger 22-year-old Lawson can’t be worse than Checo’s contributions over the last two years.

Enjoy Max Verstappen's in-lap IN FULL as he brings it home as a four-time world champion in Las Vegas 💙#F1 #LasVegasGP pic.twitter.com/ZdtKt6bzTo

— Formula 1 (@F1) November 25, 2024

The challenges also included the RB20 losing pace around mid-season. They opened the year in top form but couldn’t maintain early success. Verstappen won five of the first seven races and finished on the podium in six!

He had a mishap in the Australian Grand Prix and had a rare DNF following a brake that caught fire. Aside from that, Verstappen rolled through the first half of the season. However, the situation deteriorated, with Verstappen having issues overcoming a sluggish car.

Nevertheless, Verstappen finished first in average grid position at 3.63. He also had the fastest car on average last season. And, most importantly, the Dutch phenom wrapped up the title three races before the end of the campaign. He won the São Paulo Grand Prix and Qatar Grand Prix in two of the last four events.

Verstappen stated that he is aiming for more stability this season. As I stated, the car was not consistent in the least and needed plenty of work to keep pace. A better all-around effort from week to week is Verstappen’s main goal for the 2025 campaign.

The champ likely is addressing his team with that statement, after Red Bull missed out on the Constructors’ Championship.

But, as far as pre-season testing is concerned, Verstappen’s RB21 didn’t look the part in Bahrain. He posted the fourth-fastest overall time, and rock bottom in laps completed. Lawson also complained of gremlins with his car. The four-time champ didn’t seem enthusiastic at the conclusion of preseason testing.

🚨 Max Verstappen: "We keep on working, keep on trying to improve. Hopefully heading to Melbourne we'll learn a bit more, and then we'll see where we're at."

"I don't expect us to be the fastest at all. At the same time, it's also difficult to tell where everyone's pace is." pic.twitter.com/GAaK689Pjc

— RBR Daily (@RBR_Daily) March 1, 2025

Having said that, you wouldn’t expect anything different from him. As the perfectionist he is, Verstappen never appears too thrilled until he’s standing on top of the podium. He generally doesn’t reveal much, and yeah, McLaren should have a slightly faster car.

Nevertheless, we’ve seen incredible efforts from Verstappen in the past despite not having the best equipment. Last year, in the rain in Brazil, Verstappen started P17 on the grid, only to win the race!

Red Bull was experimenting and throwing darts in an attempt to fix the car after losing speed at the mid-way mark. However, they were starting to figure it out toward the end of the season. In 2025, overcoming early season issues with over and understeer shouldn’t be an issue for Red Bull before the championship race heats up in the summer months.

I’m confident that McLaren will have the pace advantage over Red Bull again this year, but they don’t have the best driver on the grid behind the wheel. That honor still belongs to Verstappen! He remains the driver to beat and has to be worth thinking about for your Formula One 2025 Championship predictions.

Charles Leclerc (+450)

How will Ferrari handle the pressure in 2025? The team’s top driver Charles Leclerc finished third in the standings after compiling 356 points. He notched three wins, including his home track in Monaco.

Charles Leclerc finally got his chance to jump in the Monaco harbour as a race winner… but he made sure Fred Vasseur was joining him 😅#F1 pic.twitter.com/62X9sYnyt4

— Formula 1 (@F1) December 28, 2024

As is typically the case for Ferrari, Leclerc had an inconsistent car that was difficult to predict week-to-week. Additionally, race strategy was often questionable at times, but an improvement compared to previous seasons, at least.

Leclerc isn’t safe from blame, either. He allowed a few races to slip away when the pace was there against Verstappen and Norris. The P19, P11, and P14 performances were absolutely killer for Ferrari’s chances in the Constructors’ Championship.

They would have had a much better opportunity late in the season to oust McLaren. However, P5, P4, P2, and P3 finishes were not enough to give Ferrari the advantage. I don’t see much changing this season.

Despite winning a few events, Leclerc will likely be on the outside looking in at Norris and Verstappen battling it out.

The competition between him and Hamilton should help, but these are two fiery drivers, and the season may not go without any controversy.

"you've got a long old future ahead of you"

Lewis Hamilton has always believed in Charles Leclerc ❤️🥹#F1 @ScuderiaFerrari pic.twitter.com/VwZpQ58cb0

— Formula 1 (@F1) January 15, 2025

Will Hamilton be willing to assist Leclerc in situations where he needs it? Ferrari vice chairman Piero Ferrari seems to believe that the rivalry helps Leclerc. However, I have my reservations, and I’m well aware that Hamilton won’t sacrifice his own success to aid Leclerc!

Leclerc and Ferrari came out of pre-season testing feeling good about their position before the start of the season. The Monaco native posted the fastest time on the final day of testing in Bahrain. In the last morning session, he cleared Mercedes’ rookie Andrea Kimi Antonelli by 0.777 seconds.

In any case, Leclerc’s F1 Championship odds regressed from +425 to +450, while his teammates are on the rise! Leclerc is worth a look at around +600, but not at his current odds to win the F1 Championship of +450.

Lewis Hamilton (+475)

The Ferrari garage is going to look a lot different and probably take some time to get used to. After 12 years with Mercedes, the seven-time world champion signed a two-year contract with Ferrari last year.

It felt like Hamilton was merely going through the motions in his last year at Mercedes. The same goes for his team. There was obvious tension at times between him and team principal Toto Wolff, but the season went off relatively issue-free.

Lewis Hamilton's F1 career is ICONIC 🤜🤛 pic.twitter.com/4RG5fOb6Pm

— ESPN F1 (@ESPNF1) February 11, 2025

Nevertheless, Lewis was expecting more than two wins and five podiums in his final season at Mercedes. He finished with an average grid position of 6.96. Teammate George Russell finished ahead of Hamilton in virtually every metric. That includes in points, with Hamilton notching 223 points on the year.

It’s a tough way to go out after such a storybook career at Mercedes, but does he have more to prove with Ferrari? In his first chance behind the wheel, Hamilton crashed in Barcelona in late January.

It was a disappointing debut for Hamilton in red. That said, I wouldn’t read too far into the incident. Hamilton will be fine with Ferrari but fine won’t be enough to catch Verstappen and Norris in the SF-24.

Lewis Hamilton had a strong response to being compared to other athletes at age 40.

(via TIME) pic.twitter.com/cJ24doBeZr

— ESPN F1 (@ESPNF1) February 27, 2025

Ferrari fans are excited about Hamilton’s arrival, naturally. However, I’m going to throw a little bit of cold water on the party. Similar to last year, Hamilton should have success in flashes, though his head hasn’t been totally in the game since losing the title to Verstappen in Abu Dhabi.

Testing went fine for Hamilton. It was an up-and-down testing session for the 40-year-old Brit. He ran 70 laps and finished 1.404 seconds off the pace on the first day. Not perfect, but Hamilton responded the following day to go 0.031 ticks off the pace after altering the setup.

Hamilton opened up the final session with the third-quickest mark on the timesheet. However, he would ultimately bow out early after Ferrari recognized an anomaly on the telemetry. This doesn’t appear like a major concern and was simply a safe precaution.

George Russell (+1200)

George Russell is among the only F1 World Championship odds worth considering this year. Aside from Russell, there isn’t any realistic chance of any underdogs winning.

Russell’s price to win the title has risen to +1200, but this still provides an excellent opportunity! Heaving money is flowing in on Verstappen and Norris, so Russell is being overlooked and attracting a better price now.

Following Russell’s F1 odds to win the championship, Verstappen’s teammate is +4000. Lawson should show progress, but he isn’t winning a title. With this in mind, there is solid value on Russell at +1200. He takes over as the No. 1 driver with Hamilton’s departure.

The torch appeared to be passed from Hamilton to Russell at Mercedes last season. The young gun was the stronger driver and finished ahead of Hamilton with 245 points. He won the Australian and Las Vegas Grand Prix in 2024. Qualifying was a strong suit for Russell, as he captured the pole in four events.

"VEGAS BABBBY!"

George Russell wins the jackpot with a stellar drive 🎰#F1 #LasVegasGP pic.twitter.com/kiyIchWsCy

— Formula 1 (@F1) November 24, 2024

Additionally, Russell had eight top 3 efforts in qualifying, so the pace was there. If Mercedes can show improvement on their car in the offseason, Russell will be in business. In Bahrain, Russell had a fantastic showing in testing. He finished the fastest on the final day of the three-day event.

Russell’s F1 2025 odds skyrocketed from +2500 to +1200 following the impressive session. He likely comes up short, but at +1200, Russell is worth a small play for your F1 2025 Drivers’ Championship bets!