2024 Groundhog Day Predictions and Betting Odds

As Groundhog Day approaches, we will soon get a glimpse into whether spring will arrive early or linger for six more weeks. And, yes, there are 2024 Groundhog Day odds on the board at online betting sites. In honor of this special day, we are making Groundhog Day predictions and locking in our best Groundhog Day prop bets.

If you have never gambled on Groundhog Day before and aren’t sure what this entails, we have you covered with all the required information. In addition to checking out the Groundhog Day betting odds, there are some important details to outline for Punxsutawney Phil’s moment in the spotlight.

When Is Groundhog Day?

Since the first Groundhog Day in 1887, the annual event has been scheduled every year on February 2. In 2024, Groundhog Day falls on a Friday.

2024 Groundhog Day Odds

The following Groundhog Day betting odds are courtesy of BetUS:

According to the latest Groundhog Day odds, winter is expected to end early this year. Since Phil is favored to not see his shadow, oddsmakers have spring arriving early in 2024.

That being said, according to BetUS, winter is favored to continue for six more weeks regardless of whether the groundhog’s shadow appears or not.

Where To Bet On Groundhog Day?

Entertainment betting sites are getting involved in the fun of Groundhog’s Day in 2024. For your top Groundhog Day betting site, we suggest checking out the odds at BetUS.

BetUS has released Groundhog Day odds for two bets, which we will get into in greater detail below. This top-rated online betting site is well-known for posting unique novelty prop bets that you can’t find anywhere else.

Furthermore, BetUS has a large selection of traditional wagers from major sports leagues from around the world. So, when you are finished betting on Groundhog Day and want to lock in your Super Bowl bets, BetUS will have all the odds available at your fingertips.

BetUS makes it simple for new customers to quickly register, deposit, and start betting inside the sportsbook. During the registration and deposit process, you will have the ability to choose an attractive sign-up bonus at BetUS.

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Groundhog Day Predictions

Let’s reveal our predictions for how Groundhog Day 2024 will play out in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania:

Will Punxsutawney Phil See His Shadow?

Much to the chagrin of most spectators, Phil saw his shadow and he predicted that winter would be prolonged last year. But, oddsmakers at BetUS are leaning heavily towards Phil failing to see his shadow in 2024.

That would be good news for anyone other than fans of outdoor winter activities. At -350 odds, there is a 77.8 percent implied probability that Phil won’t see his shadow. Does BetUS know something that nobody else does?

The science behind the bet is fairly simple to understand: if it’s a sunny day without any cloud cover, then he is going to see his shadow. However, if clouds are concealing the sun, then a shadow can’t be produced by Phil.

With that in mind, the research behind this bet involves monitoring the weather forecast. The Groundhog Day bet is essentially a weather prop.

Generally, long-range forecasts are unreliable metrics. Three-day forecasts aren’t even certain to be 100 percent. Nevertheless, the weather forecast will give us some kind of an idea for Friday, February 2.

According to The Weather Channel’s (January 25) extended forecast for next Friday, February 2, Punxsutawney is expected to be partly cloudy, with a 24 percent chance of rain. More specifically, the forecast is calling for mostly cloudy skies early, and then partly cloudy in the afternoon.

Note that the Groundhog Day ceremony with Phil occurs early in the morning hours on February 2¹. Could the sun peek through the clouds to give Phil a shadow and extend winter by six weeks?

That is one possibility. Also, there is plenty of time for the forecast to change before February 2. Having said that, a cold and dreary February morning in Punxsutawney is the most likely outcome.

For our Groundhog Day prediction, we are siding with Phil the Groundhog not seeing his shadow. Therefore, according to Phil, for the first time since 2020, there won’t be six more weeks of winter.

Will There Be Six More Weeks of Winter Regardless of Phil’s Prediction?

So, will Phil the Groundhog completely get it wrong and whiff on his prediction? Per the Stormfax Weather Almanac, Phil has been correct in only 39 percent of his Groundhog Day predictions².

However, we are confident in Phil’s weather prediction skills in 2024. The weather has been fairly inconsistent this winter. There was a cold stretch in January, but overall, it has been fairly mild since winter arrived in December.

Due to El Niño, Pennsylvania’s winter was expected to be unseasonably warm. The Climate Prediction Center stated that the 2023-24 winter was favored to be “historically strong”³. A quick look at the 10-day forecast suggests that temperatures are slated to be warm next week.

In spite of some cool mornings, the temperatures are supposed to eclipse 50 degrees next week. That doesn’t seem wintery for Pennsylvania in February.

In other words, we like Phil’s prediction for an earlier spring to be correct. At plus money, there is strong value in believing in the groundhog this year.

Who Is Punxsutawney Phil?

When you think of Groundhog Day, Punxsutawney Phil is probably the first thing that comes to mind. Residing on Gobbler’s Knob, Phil is a weather-forecasting groundhog.

With help from the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club, he emerges from his burrow every year from hibernation in search of his shadow to predict when winter will end.

How Old Is Punxsutawney Phil?

According to urban legend, Punxsutawney Phil has been the same groundhog since the Groundhog Day tradition started in 1887⁴.

That would make Phil a 137-year-old immortal groundhog. So, did Punxsutawney Phil die? Well, considering the average groundhog lives an average of just two to three years in the wild, the original Phil is long dead⁵.

How Many Punxsutawney Phil’s Have There Been?

If you believe in the legend of Punxsutawney Phil, then one is the only correct answer. However, in reality, there have had to be roughly 70 or 80 different groundings acting as Phil.

Where Does Punxsutawney Phil Live?

Punxsutawney Phil lives in a burrow on Gobbler’s Knob in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania⁶.

What Time Does Punxsutawney Phil Come Out?

Groundhog Day festivities start early in the morning at approximately 6:30 a.m. ET. Roughly an hour later, Punxsutawney Phil will come out of his burrow for his prediction.

How Accurate Is Punxsutawney Phil?

According to the Stormfax Weather Almanac, Punxsutawney Phil has an all-time weather prediction record of 39 percent. However, Weather Underground meteorologist Tim Roche claims that he has been roughly 36 percent accurate since 1969⁷.

Did Punxsutawney Phil See His Shadow In 2023?

Yes, Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow in 2023. It was the third straight year that his shadow was visible on Groundhog Day.

Past Groundhog Day Results

Punxsutawney Phil’s shadow has dominated throughout the years during the Groundhog Day tradition. He has seen his shadow at least 108 times on Groundhog Day. There has been no shadow 20 times, and there were no records for nine years. Let’s look back at the Groundhog Day results from the past 10 years: