If you thought games in the dramatic 2021-22 NFL Regular Season were closer than they have ever been, you’d be spot on, with 18 of the first 79 games of the first Regular Season since the Pandemic being decided in the final 60 seconds of play or in Overtime (OT).
And after NFL Regular Season Week 6, there had already been 11 games that went to OT and after the first-ever 17-game slate, an incredible 21 OT games had been played with the Raiders playing four (4-0) and the Ravens three (2-1)—and vs. each other in Week 1.
NFL Overtime Rules
In the 2021-22 NFL Playoffs, we saw an OT ending so dramatic and so controversial that it triggered a Rule Change when in the AFC Playoffs, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs needed just one possession to bounce the poor Bills who never got to get the football.
This cruel reality dictated by the now old modified (from 2010) NFL Sudden Death OT Rule saying “Both teams have the opportunity to possess the ball at least once in OT unless the team that receives the OT Kickoff scores a TD on its first possession.” When Mahomes connected with TE Travis Kelce for the 8-yard game-winning TD pass, Josh Allen and the Bills basically got the gridiron shaft, depriving Buffalo—still winless at the Super Bowl—of a chance to even get the football in OT and get to Super Bowl LVI.
Since that then-new NFL Overtime Rules Playoff format adopted in 2010, the team that won the OT Coin Toss was 10-2 (83.3%), so instead of letting a little round piece of metal determine who gets to advance after over 60+ of play, Roger Goodell did the right thing.
The Chiefs def. the Bills in OT in the 2021 Div Rd
– Combined for 25 pts in final 2 min. of regulation
– 1st playoff game in NFL history w/ 3 go-ahead TD in final 2 min. of regulation
– BUF never had possession in OTThey will meet again in 2022… will the Bills get revenge? pic.twitter.com/KAsgYxf1NY
— NFL Research (@NFLResearch) May 11, 2022
Where we saw that most having an influence, I think, was 12 games in the postseason that have been in OT, seven of which were won on the first possession. When you see that, that’s the type of thing … in the Postseason we should deal with.”
The NFL Commission also said, “I think they like the OT rule in the Regular Season,” Goodell said, meaning that this new rule will only be used in the NFL Postseason for now. The Rule change passed by an overwhelming 29-3 vote from the 32 NFL owners.
One NFL head coach offered a prediction about the new modified overtime rule for postseason only: Many teams that get the ball first and score a touchdown will go for 2, rather than allowing the second team to do it and end the game.
— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) March 29, 2022
The National Football League (NFL) added an OT period in 1974, and since then there have been 574 Regular Season Games that were decided in OT.
The Raiders going 4-0 in OT last Regular Season was significant for QB Derek Carr and Las Vegas in that the Silver and Black needed every single Win just to get to the Postseason and their Win over the Chargers ended up doing QB Justin Herbert and the Bolts in. Las Vegas—host of next season’s Super Bowl at Allegiant Stadium—not only went 4-0 in its four OT games last Regular Season, but the Raiders also just completed a perfect 4-0 2022 NFL Preseason and with WR Davante Adams (Packers) in Sin City, expectations are high.
Let’s take a look at the NFL OT Games Odds and NFL Tie Games Odds from Online NFL betting sites where we see the total number of OT games for the NFL 2022-23 Regular Season—obviously lower than the gaudy 21 in the last quirky 2021-22 Regular Season.
Eleven games have gone to overtime this season, the second-most through the first six weeks of a season all-time. Only the 1995 season had more (12). pic.twitter.com/bf1zr8IHi0
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) October 18, 2021
NFL OT Games Odds
Although a niche NFL Future betting market, the NFL Overtime Games Totals one is nice because it is an “Over” or “Under” proposition and lets NFL gamblers enjoy a bet for the duration of the Regular Season, pulling for or against the weekly games to go to Overtime.
Analyzing the NFL OT Games Odds for the coming 2022-23 Regular Season, it’s hard to imagine seeing teams like Baltimore and Las Vegas somehow end up in three or four OT games and two should be the greatest number of OT games a team plays in a normal season. So, some reversion to the statistical mean can be expected, with maybe 5 or so less OT games from the 21 we ended up seeing last 2021 NFL Regular Season, and around 16 I think, 1½ games less than the 17½ Total we see posted at online NFL bet sites currently.
So bet the Under in the NFL OT Games Odds and maybe we see only one or two in the first three weeks and get off to a slow (but normal start) in the Regular Season. 60 Minutes is enough. The new NFL Overtime Rules won’t affect this Futures Props betting market.
This game finishes in a tie as fans boo at Heinz Field.
The Steelers are 5-3-1. The Lions are 0-8-1.
-end scene-
— Brooke Pryor (@bepryor) November 14, 2021
NFL Tie Game Odds
Will an NFL Game End in a Tie in Regulation?
The NFL Tie Games Odds market is seemingly a slam dunk and priced that way (Yes -380) as there has been an OT game in each of the last three seasons, right?
And strangely enough, of the last 5 games that were Ties, four have been played in September.
A Tie Expected Every NFL Season but Will We See One in ‘22?
Since the inception of the OT in 1974, there have been 27 games that ended in a Tie, 17 games that ended tied under the first set of rules (1974-2011), 5 Ties under the second modified set of OT Rules (2012-2016), and 5 since OT was shortened 5 minutes (2017).
After seeing exactly one game end in a Tie in the last three seasons—two of which only had 16 games—maybe looking to a season where no games end up in a Tie and taking the juicy plus-odds is the prescription in this very unique NFL Overtime Games market.
