The 38th installment of the indie-inspired 2023 Independent Spirit Awards will be live from the Santa Monica Pier on Saturday, March 4.
Last Sunday, at the 2023 SAG Awards, the film Everything Everywhere All at Once continued to have great success this awards season.
The sci-fi action flick won four SAG Awards including: outstanding cast, actress in a leading role (Michelle Yeoh), actress in a supporting role (Jamie Lee Curtis), and actor in a supporting role (Ke Huy Quan)1.
With multiple nominations at the Independent Spirit Awards, are we in for a repeat by Everything Everywhere All at Once? The film is favored to win every category it’s nominated in on Saturday.
The top online entertainment betting sites have odds listed for this exciting awards show. Let’s take a closer look at these available prop bets and see if we can take home the awards with our Independent Spirit Awards predictions.
Where To Watch The 2023 Independent Spirit Awards
The Independent Spirit Awards will be streamed live on2:
- IMDb YouTube Channel
- Film Independent YouTube Channel
The 38th Independent Spirit Awards is scheduled to be hosted by comedian Hasan Minjah, with the opening monologue beginning around 5:00 p.m. ET.
2023 Independent Spirit Awards Betting Odds
For our Independent Spirit Awards predictions, we are using odds from BetUS.
Independent Spirit Awards Best Director
| Director | Odds |
|---|---|
| Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All at Once) | -275 |
| Todd Field (TAR) | +200 |
| Sarah Polley (Women Talking) | +650 |
| Kogonada (After Yang) | +1000 |
| Halina Reijn (Bodies Bodies Bodies) | +1200 |
Everything Everywhere All at Once and TAR meet again in another category during awards season. They are recently coming off some head-to-head battles at the SAG Awards.
TAR did not win any awards at the SAG Awards, though lead actress, Cate Blanchett, scored a win at the BAFTA Awards a week earlier3. Blanchett puts the team for TAR on her shoulders and carries the load.
It’s a good film overall, but director Todd Field was helped out substantially by Blanchett’s effort. If she doesn’t nail the part, we likely do not see TAR nominated as much as it has been during awards season.
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert teamed up as directors for Everything Everywhere All at Once. Kwan is listed under this prop bet at BetUS, but Scheinert should be there, too.
The Daniels signed an exclusive five-year deal with Universal this past August4. Universal noted the value they bring and locked them down.
Congratulations to Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert on winning the top prize at the #DGAAwards! pic.twitter.com/PawmGC4CQ9
— Rotten Tomatoes (@RottenTomatoes) February 19, 2023
ISA Prediction
There are multiple cast members on Everything Everywhere All at Once that have been nominated recently at the Golden Globes, BAFTAs, SAG Awards, Independent Spirit Awards, and Academy Awards.
Michelle Yeoh, Ke Huy Quan, and Jamie Lee Curtis have all won individual awards for their roles in the film. Stephanie Hsu is also nominated for her portrayal of Joy/Jobu Tupkai.
The cast won for outstanding performance by a cast at the SAG Awards this past Sunday5. The Daniels should be applauded for getting the most out of these talented actors.
With multiple dimensions to the film in a multiverse, it couldn’t have been a simple chore to get everyone on the same page. Expect Kwan and Scheinert to be the center of attention for Everything Everywhere All at Once tonight.
If you are looking for a potential upset, consider Kogonada’s work on After Yang. It’s an underappreciated film that Kogonada should see some recognition for. In any event, it should be difficult to top the Daniels.
Independent Spirit Awards Best Supporting Performance
| Actor | Odds |
|---|---|
| Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once) | -425 |
| Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway) | +450 |
| Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once) | +500 |
| Nina Hoss (TAR) | +1000 |
| Gabrielle Union (The Inspection) | +1200 |
| Mark Rylance (Bones and All) | +1500 |
| Brian d’Arcy James (The Cathedral) | +2000 |
| Theo Rossi (Emily the Criminal) | +2000 |
| Jonathan Tucker (Palm Trees and Power Lines) | +2200 |
| Trevante Rhodes (Bruiser) | +2500 |
The best supporting performance is a unisex award at the Independent Spirit Awards. Both male and female actors are on the Independent Spirit Awards odds board for this bet. This goes for the other awards, too.
This category pits co-stars against one another, as Jamie Lee Curtis and Ke Huy Quan are leading candidates to win. Curtis and Huy Quan won their respective categories for supporting actors at the SAG Awards this past weekend6.
It’s important to note that Huy Quan won as a heavy favorite, while Curtis shocked the SAG Awards in a big upset. Angela Bassett was heavily favored to win the supporting role over Curtis.
In the middle between Curtis and Quan is Brian Tyree Henry. The 40-year-old is nominated for his role as James Aucoin in the drama Causeway. He plays an auto mechanic that meets Lynsey (Jennifer Lawrence) after her truck breaks down.
Lynsey is a soldier that is back home following a traumatic brain injury. She develops a close bond with Aucoin that has the potential to turn into something more.
The Apple TV+ exclusive centers around Lynsey’s emotional pain from her deployment. Henry does really well with what he has to work with in Causeway. The depth of his character could have been improved, but he is a worthy challenger to Quan.
Ke Huy Quan is a national treasure. #SAGAwards2023 #KeHuyQuan pic.twitter.com/Z4tzxsGqaF
— SAG Awards® (@SAGawards) February 27, 2023
ISA Prediction
Curtis pulled off the upset at the SAG Awards. However, she did not have to contend with her co-star. Yeoh and Quan are the stars of Everything Everywhere All at Once. Curtis and the rest of the cast would likely be the first ones to admit it.
Along with winning the SAG Award for best supporting actor, Quan was also recognized for his role as Waymond Wang at the Golden Globes7.
He has been on a tear at awards shows for supporting Yeoh in the film. There is not any indication that Quan is going to stop now.
The Independent Spirit Awards odds for this category should be larger in favor of Quan. He is at -475 to win, but -650 looks more appropriate.
Independent Spirit Awards Best Feature Film
| Film | Odds |
|---|---|
| Everything Everywhere All at Once | -300 |
| TAR | +250 |
| Women Talking | +700 |
| Bones and All | +1000 |
| Our Father the Devil | +1200 |
Do we have another showdown between Everything Everywhere All at Once and TAR?
It sure looks like it. Everything Everywhere All at Once has more points up on the scoreboard and is looking to add more at the Independent Spirit Awards.
Is there an upset to consider for the best feature film? Bones and All might have a case, but who is going to step in front of the Everything Everywhere All at Once train?
Keep in mind that Everything Everywhere All at Once was nominated for seven Golden Globes this year8. The film was up against some stiff competition to get noticed, but still managed to grab seven nominations, two of which were won.
TAR is a good film, but overall, it is not the most spectacular. Again, the entire movie is getting accolades based on Blanchett’s exemplary performance. Nothing else stuck out in the film.
'Everything Everywhere All at Once' grabs the top prize at the Screen Actors Guild awards, cementing its status as the front-runner for the best picture prize at this year's Oscars https://t.co/YvGRj3FmzV pic.twitter.com/zI6JszFucF
— Reuters (@Reuters) February 28, 2023
ISA Prediction
There is no doubt that Everything Everywhere All at Once is the film to beat in the best feature film category.
Even without examining the Independent Spirit Awards betting odds, anyone that has been following along would know Everything Everywhere All at Once has leading claims.
The multiverse and variety of levels in the film have made viewers think of the Matrix. There is much more of a comedic element to Everything Everywhere All at Once. However, the premise of an action sci-fi in a simulation environment is similar.
In fact, there may not even have been an Everything Everywhere All at Once without the Matrix, admits the Daniels9. The film also received a budding endorsement from Matrix director, Lily Wachowski10.
Look for Everything Everywhere All at Once to cruise to a win in the best feature film category. We have this bet handicapped at -500, so there is still some value at -300.
Independent Spirit Awards Best Lead Performance
| Actor | Odds |
|---|---|
| Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once) | -115 |
| Cate Blanchett (TAR) | +100 |
| Paul Mescal (Aftersun) | +800 |
| Mia Goth (Pearl) | +1000 |
| Taylor Russell (Bones and All) | +1200 |
| Jeremy Pope (The Inspection) | +1500 |
| Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie) | +1500 |
| Aubrey Plaza (Emily the Criminal) | +2000 |
| Regina Hall (Honk for Jesus, Save your Soul) | +2000 |
| Dale Dickey (A Love Song) | +2500 |
The best lead performance award at the Independent Spirit Awards odds looks similar to the SAG Awards. At least at the top of the odds, as Yeoh and Blanchett separate themselves from the rest of the field.
Yeoh and Blanchett have been dueling during awards season since the Golden Globes. They both won in their respective categories at the Golden Globes in January.
Yeoh won best actress in a musical or comedy, while Blanchett nabbed the award for best actress in a drama11. The rivalry heated up at the BAFTA Awards and SAG Awards.
Blanchett beat Yeoh for the best leading actress at the BAFTA Awards two weeks ago12. In the next round a week later, Yeoh returned the favor with a win over Blanchett at the SAG Awards13.
Both women are fantastic in their roles. They are contrasting movies with little in common. However, one thing that Everything Everywhere All at Once and TAR have in common is two talented women in leading roles.
The odds look about right for this category. It is a toss-up between Yeoh and Blanchett.
Grab your tissues and prepare to be moved by the ICONIC Michelle Yeoh! #SAGAwards pic.twitter.com/ZPHoOkHb7u
— SAG Awards® (@SAGawards) February 27, 2023
ISA Prediction
We have another battle between Yeoh and Blanchett. They have grown accustomed to seeing both of their names this award season.
If one category could have a co-winner this year, it would make sense to give Yeoh and Blanchett the win. However, one has to win and nine must lose.
Yeoh has the most recent win over Blanchett at the SAG Awards. There should be some recency bias when it comes to betting on this category.
Yeoh deserves everything that is coming to her in 2023. That being said, the fact Blanchett carries TAR says a lot about her effort.
Everything Everywhere All at Once may have still worked if Yeoh wasn’t in the cast, but TAR isn’t getting the attention it is without Blanchett. Consider taking the better odds at even money on Blanchett.
Independent Spirit Awards Best Breakthrough Performance
| Actor | Odds |
|---|---|
| Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once) | -285 |
| Frankie Coro (Aftersun) | +250 |
| Gracija Filipovic (Murina) | +600 |
| Daniel Zolghadri (Funny Pages) | +1000 |
| Lily McInerny (Palm Trees & Power Lines) | +1200 |
The 2023 Independent Spirit Awards for best breakthrough performance features yet another star from Everything Everywhere All at Once.
Quan, Yeoh, and Curtis have won individual awards, is it time for Stephanie Hsu to win? Hsu, who was a relatively unknown actress before the film, is favored to win the Independent Spirit Award for breakthrough performance.
The daughter of Quan and Yeoh in the film, Jobu Tupaki, is an interesting villain in a disgusting and vile kind of way. And that is exactly what Hsu was going for with the character in the movie14.
We will not give anything else away, but her performance deserves some attention. The fact that she is the betting favorite for breakthrough performance does not come as a surprise.
Gracija Filipovic in Murina might be the only contender worth considering to bet. She already has a win in this category at the Gotham Awards in November15.
Stephanie Hsu in Everything Everywhere All At Once (2022; Daniels) pic.twitter.com/PSwobScl6A
— Cinema Tweets (@CinemaTweets1) February 21, 2023
ISA Prediction
Hsu has a chance for the spotlight to be completely on her for a few minutes on Saturday. Fellow castmates have been delivering acceptance speeches recently, but now it appears that Hsu has to start working on an acceptance speech of her own.
Do not count out Filipovic winning at +600. However, Hsu is the safe choice for voters and bettors.
Independent Spirit Awards Best Screenplay
| Screenplay | Odds |
|---|---|
| Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All at Once) | -290 |
| Sarah Polley (Women Talking) | +350 |
| Todd Field (TAR) | +500 |
| Kogonada (After Yang) | +850 |
| Lena Dunham (Catherine Called Birdy) | +1200 |
The Daniels (Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert) have a good chance of adding more hardware to their mantle this weekend.
The directors of Everything Everywhere All at Once are likely winning the best director award. To complete the sweep, the Daniels can win the best screenplay award as well.
The Daniels are favored to win at -290. Sarah Polley’s Women Talking is the second favorite to win best screenplay at +350. Does Polley have a chance to steal one over the Daniels?
Women Talking is an adaptation of a novel written by Miriam Toews. The film is based on the tragic, true story of 150 young women being drugged, raped, and abused between 2005 and 2009 in a Bolivian Mennonite community16.
Polley does a solid job of bringing the novel and true story to life in a movie. The subject matter will make it tough for many people to watch, but Polley and the cast deserve nominations.
The HCA Award for Best Original Screenplay Acceptance
Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert for Everything Everywhere All At Once#EverythingEverywhereAllAtOnce #EEATO #A24 #Daniels #HCAFilmAwards #BestOriginalScreenplay pic.twitter.com/TGNQRR3ZcH
— Hollywood Critics Association (@HCAcritics) February 25, 2023
ISA Prediction
Everything Everywhere All at Once may feel like it came from a science fiction book. However, the film is an original idea from the Daniels. That should give the Daniels better standing in this category.
There are elements that were inspired by the Matrix, action films, and comedies, but all of the credit goes to Kwan and Scheinert for developing the crazy multiverse.
Their work has helped more than a few actors involved in the film receive nominations at award shows. That includes the Academy Awards later this month on March 12.
The Independent Spirit Awards should be a slam dunk for the film. Another win for the best screenplay is not out of the question in Santa Monica.
More Independent Spirit Awards Picks
Are you craving even more picks for the Independent Spirit Awards? Check out our insight and selections for the smaller categories:
Independent Spirit Awards Best Cinematography
The best cinematography award is likely going to come down to Florian Hoffmeister (TAR) and Gregory Oke (Aftersun). Both conveyed the message and mood of the films strongly through their cinematography.
In what should be a tight call, this is a wager where the better odds should be considered. Aftersun should win an award at the Independent Spirit Awards, with best cinematography its second-best chance of winning.
Nominated for Best Documentary at the 2023 Academy Awards, All The Beauty And The Bloodshed is coming to Australian cinemas March 9. The life and work of renowned artist, activist, and icon Nan Goldin. pic.twitter.com/frHpfy90U3
— Madman Films (@MadmanFilms) February 23, 2023
Independent Spirit Awards Best Documentary
Riotsville, USA, and All The Beauty And The Bloodshed are strong contenders to win this category. Riotsville, USA is getting some serious value to win at +650.
However, is it enough to oust All The Beauty And The Bloodshed? Probably not. The odds favor a win for the Nan Goldin documentary and we agree.
Independent Spirit Awards Best Editing
Ride the Everything Everywhere All at Once wave?
In one of the biggest locks of the night, there isn’t another worth betting on in the best editing category. Paul Rogers should win an individual award for his effort on Everything Everywhere All at Once.
Independent Spirit Awards Best First Feature
The Independent Spirit Award for best first feature gives Aftersun their best chance to win. If Aftersun doesn’t win at least one award, write it down as a big snub to a terrific movie.
Independent Spirit Awards Best First Screenplay
There are three strong candidates to win the best first screenplay award. The most logical option has to be John P Ford’s Emily the Criminal.
Emily the Criminal is nominated for four awards on Saturday. Of those nominations, the best first screenplay by John P Ford has the strongest opportunity to win.
Independent Spirit Awards Best International Film
For our final Independent Spirit Awards pick, we are predicting the winner of the best international film category. The odds point to Saint Omer winning at -250.
Return to Seoul with odds of winning at +550, though? The implied probability equates to 15.38%. That does not look correct. This well-received film has to be considered at an attractive price of +550.
Sources
1 SAG Awards 2023: Complete List of Winners, Led By ‘Everything Everywhere All at Once’ | The New York Times. Retrieved From “https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/26/movies/sag-awards-winners-list.html”
2 Watch the Show – Film Independent. Retrieved From “https://www.filmindependent.org/spirit-awards/watch-the-show/”
3BAFTAs 2023: ‘Extraordinary’ Cate Blanchett wins best actress BAFTA | Financial Review. Retrieved From “https://www.afr.com/life-and-luxury/arts-and-culture/extraordinary-cate-blanchett-wins-best-actress-bafta-20230220-p5clv1”
4 ‘Everything Everywhere All at Once’ Directors Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert Sign Exclusive Five-Year Pact With Universal | Variety. Retrieved From “https://variety.com/2022/film/news/everything-everywhere-all-at-once-directors-daniel-universal-1235331472/”
5 Everything Everywhere All at Once Wins Best Cast SAG Award | The Hollywood Reporter. Retrieved From “https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/everything-everywhere-all-at-once-sag-award-best-cast-1235334970/”
6 SAG Awards 2023 Recap: ‘Everything Everywhere All at Once’ Wins Best Cast, Three Individual Honors | The Hollywood Reporter. Retrieved From “https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/sag-awards-2023-recap-winners-highlights-major-moments-1235334831/”
7 ‘Everything Everywhere All at Once’ actor Ke Huy Quan wins Golden Globe for best supporting actor in a movie | NBC News. Retrieved From “https://www.nbcnews.com/news/asian-america/everything-everywhere-actor-ke-huy-quan-wins-golden-globe-best-support-rcna65133”
8 Everything Everywhere All at Once | Golden Globes. Retrieved From “https://www.goldenglobes.com/film/everything-everywhere-all-once”
9 ‘Everything Everywhere All at Once: All the Wild Movie References Explained (As Best as We Can) | Vanity Fair. Retrieved From “https://www.vanityfair.com/hollywood/2022/04/everything-everywhere-all-at-once-explained-as-best-we-can”
10 The Matrix Director Praises Multiverse Action Movie Everything Everywhere | Screen Rant. Retrieved From “https://screenrant.com/everything-everywhere-all-once-movie-lily-wachowski-response/”
11 Winners & Nominees 2023 | Golden Globes. Retrieved From “https://www.goldenglobes.com/winners-nominees”
12 BAFTAS 2023: Cate Blanchett wins best actress | Forbes Australia. Retrieved From “https://www.forbes.com.au/life/guides/baftas-2023-cate-blanchett-wins-best-actress/”
13 Michelle Yeoh First Asian to Win SAG Best Actress Film Award | Variety. Retrieved From “https://variety.com/2023/awards/awards/michelle-yeoh-first-asian-best-actress-sag-winner-film-1235535357/”
14 Why Stephanie Hsu on loving her vile ‘Everything’ Character | KCRW. Retrieved From “https://www.kcrw.com/culture/shows/the-treatment/stephanie-hsu-sam-wasson-kasi-lemmons/stephanie-hsu-everything-everywhere-jobu-spongebob”
15 Gracija Filipovic wins Gotham Award for performance in Murina | Croatian Audiovisual Centre. Retrieved From “https://havc.hr/eng/info-centre/news/gracija-filipovic-wins-gotham-award-for-performance-in-murina”
16 Women Talking movie review & film summary (2022) | Roger Ebert. Retrieved From “https://www.rogerebert.com/reviews/women-talking-movie-review-2022”
