Joe Biden Prop Bets and Impeachment Odds

Biden to Pass Dementia Test Prediction

The possibility that Biden has dementia is a popular storyline in conservative media, but it’s mostly speculation at this point.

Much has been made of Biden forgetting words or mixing up names, but he hasn’t done anything that Trump hasn’t done on camera. The AP reported that while Biden mixed up French President Macron with Mitterrand, Trump mixed up Nancy Pelosi with Nikki Haley when he spoke about capitol security during the January 6 attack.

Dementia is more than a verbal flub. It’s a systematic degeneration of brain function and mood regulation. While the storyline may be entertaining enough to create a demand for odds, it’s not a good wager. Dementia patients can’t negotiate the fine details of bills like the Inflation Reduction Act.

The best bet is to wager on Biden passing a dementia test, though it’s unlikely he’ll take one at all. Expect an easy “no” or a no-action bet.

Joe Biden Impeachment Odds and Best Bet

The odds of a Biden impeachment have little to do with the president himself. Congresswoman Lauren Boebert introduce a bill to impeach Biden “relating to actions taken involving immigration and the southern border.”

Her bill charged that Biden failed his constitutional duties in allowing too many migrants through the border.

Today, I initiated historic impeachment proceedings against Joe Biden for his unconstitutional dereliction of duty at the southern border. For the first time in 24 years, House Republicans united to protect the separation of powers and start a formal impeachment inquiry.…

— Rep. Lauren Boebert (@RepBoebert) June 22, 2023

The crisis at the border is a crisis, but it’s not exclusively Biden’s fault. Loosened restrictions allowing high volumes of migrants can be traced to 1986. The Immigration Reform and Control Act grandfathered illegal immigrants who were already in the country into the United States.

The bill also required employers to check their employees’ immigration status but removed meaningful enforcement measures.

Besides being meritless, the impeachment bill is trapped in committee. Marjorie Taylor Greene, one of the most extreme conservative congresswomen, is on the subcommittees who received the impeachment bill. Both parties sit on those committees, so it’s hard to imagine the committee voting that bill out.

The best pick for Biden impeachment is “no.” It only requires the House to pass the bill, but it’s likely going to die in committee. The odds might be short, but this one is a almost certainly not going to pass.

Joe Biden Exit Date Prediction

President Biden’s exit date poses interesting questions about his career strategy. On the one hand, he’s been chasing the presidency for decades. His first presidential run was in 1988. Now that he’s finally won the greatest prize of his career, it’s worth wondering whether he’ll let it go.

Age may force him to. Most of the money so far is on Biden winning the election then leaving office or dying in the first year of his second term. The longest odds are on Biden leaving office or dying before the next election and inauguration.

This time, the middle ground seems the most secure. Biden would be 82 if he were inaugurated a second time. While that would make him the oldest president in history, the life expectancy of men in his income group is 87.

As president, he has access to some of the best healthcare in the world – the same healthcare President Trump received when he received experimental COVID treatments near the end of his term.

This leaves him leaving office in 2026 or later and 2025 as the only viable options. However, these outcomes essentially boil down to who’s going to win the upcoming election, so you should focus on that one instead of this particular wager.

Hunter Biden to Serve Jail Time Before 2025 Predictions

Hunter Biden is facing two trials. One comes from a September 2023 indictment that he possessed a gun while using narcotics which is set for June 3.

Hunter Biden’s second trial concerns failure to pay taxes, failure to file, evading a tax assessment, and filing a fraudulent tax form. That trial is set for June 20.

Both trials will take weeks, and both include charges that could result in jail time. Hunter Biden has been open about the bad decisions he’s made during his struggle with addiction. He wrote a memoir about them called Beautiful Things.

His ne-er-do-well past does not make a future without jail plausible. The scrutiny that comes with being the US president’s son also makes jail seem likely.

My pick is Hunter Biden to serve jail time before 2025. While Joe Biden tries to maintain a level of integrity as president, his troubled son is still recovering from a checkered past and will likely face consequences for the alleged crimes he committed.