Kentucky Oaks 2024 Betting Odds And Predictions

Tarifa drew a favorable post position and possesses the talent to take full advantage in the Kentucky Oaks. Goldophin and Brad Cox must feel confident about their chances on May 3!

The three-year-old is a four-time winner across five starts. Tarifa is entering the Kentucky Oaks on a three-race winning streak, with a blemish-free resume in 2024¹.

Following a ¾ length win over Standoutsensation in a $60,000 allowance race on January 20, Cox set his eyes on graded events for Tarifa.

She didn’t disappoint in her Grade 2 debut, as Tarifa cleared favored Intricate by 2 ¾ lengths in the $300,000 Rachel Alexandra Stakes (Gr. 2) at Fair Grounds. Tarifa followed up with the best performance of her career in the Fair Grounds Oaks (Gr. 2).

#5 TARIFA ($5) would wear down the #7 Our Pretty Woman to win the $400,000 Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) and earn 100 points towards the Kentucky Oaks. The daughter of Bernardini was ridden by Flavien Prat and is trained by @bradcoxracing. Congrats to all the connections! pic.twitter.com/qKte3iJ6of

— FanDuel Racing (Formerly TVG) (@FanDuel_Racing) March 23, 2024

On March 23, Tarifa outdueled Our Pretty Woman by ¾ lengths for a victory in the $400,000 event. It was a beautiful ride from Flavien Prat, who stalked and took over the lead in the stretch.

Most impressively, Tarifa’s speed figure improved from 89 to 99. Additionally, she was in good form with a quick 59.20-second, 5-furlong workout on April 26.

Tarifa is open to even more improvement for the Kentucky Oaks, so this is a serious player on Friday!

William Mott’s Just F Y I has already stepped into Grade 1 territory. The George Krikorian bred and owned filly has participated in three Grade 1 events in just four starts².

After debuting with a win at Saratoga in August 2023, Just F Y I took the leap from a maiden special weight to a Grade 1 event. She picked up a 3 ¾ length win over Central Avenue as a dark horse!

The promising effort allowed Just F Y I to make a start in a Breeders’ Cup event at Santa Anita Park. Again, as a sleeper, Just F Y I edged out Jody’s Pride by a neck for a win in the $1 million NetJets Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (Gr. 2) in November.

Just F Y I takes flight. ✈️ pic.twitter.com/Dycb5qQ7lg

— Kentucky Derby (@KentuckyDerby) April 25, 2024

In 2024, Just F Y I made only one start, with a 2nd place performance in the $600,000 Ashland Stakes (Gr. 1) on April 5. Leslie’s Rose proved to be too much for Just F Y I, with a 3-length win in the Grade 1 event at Keeneland.

She hasn’t gotten much respect in her career, but the Kentucky Oaks 2024 odds suggest that Just F Y I is amongst the favorites. The filly achieved a time of 59.80 in her last workout, just .60 ticks behind Tarifa’s 5-furlong jaunt.

I expect Just F Y I to be involved at the wire, but she will need to overcome an outside post position to win.

Just F Y I and Leslie’s Rose are familiar with one another after they met in the Ashland Stakes (Gr. 1) earlier this month.

They’ll have time to get reacclimated in the starting gate, as Just F Y I and Leslie’s Rose will go off from the No. 13 and No. 14 post positions.

Leslie’s Rose will be forced to come from the No. 14 post to win the Kentucky Oaks. This is a fast horse, so I won’t put it past her; however, it’s a tough place to win from in the Oaks!

Swap her position with Tarifa’s from No. 8 to No. 14, and Todd Pletcher’s Leslie’s Rose could easily be the favorite to win. With four wins in five starts, she is coming off the best speed figure of her career in the Fair Grounds Oaks³.

Grade 1 Ashland winner LESLIE'S ROSE completed a 1/2 mile work today under the #TwinSpires for HOF trainer Todd Pletcher. #KyOaks

👀 Watch this gallop out!

"Awesome gallop out!" – @TonyCalo5

⏱️ :49.40 pic.twitter.com/gHK3q29Yiu

— TwinSpires Racing 🏇 (@TwinSpires) April 25, 2024

Leslie’s Rose was clocked with a speed reading of 99! That eclipses Tarifa and Just F Y I’s best figures, so she has the speed to compete.

In her Grade 2 debut, she showed 3rd in the $200,000 Davona Dale Stakes (Gr. 2) in February. This was a mediocre performance, but she responded with a near-perfect trip in the win over Just F Y I.

The young filly could steal the victory here if she has a repeat run, but the luck of the draw did not work in Pletcher’s favor.

Tarifa has the more desirable trip from the No. 8 post. Additionally, she is riding a mountain of momentum into this race after winning one of the biggest prep races on the schedule.

I don’t foresee Tarifa clearing for a convincing win, but she should have enough kick in the stretch to edge ahead for a half-length or ¾ length win.

If Tarifa shows any type of improvement from her last effort, this should be her race to lose with her top rivals on the outside. The favorite should be tough to beat given her recent form, so I recommend a win bet for your Kentucky Oaks 2024 predictions at Churchill Downs.

The Kentucky Oaks exacta bet consists of correctly selecting the order of the first two finishers. Similar to our Kentucky Derby predictions, I am playing my best exacta and trifecta bets for the Kentucky Oaks.

For these wagers, I generally like to aim for a large payout. That’s the appeal of hitting these tickets, so including a sleeper is a wise strategy. Having said that, Where’s My Ring is a less talked about horse that should be watched closely in the betting markets.

#1 WHERE'S MY RING ($7.10) dominates the $200,000 Gazelle Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct. Val Brinkerhoff trains this three-year-old filly by @LanesEndFarms' Twirling Candy. Jose Lezcano was in the irons. Nice call, @MattCTVG! 💍 pic.twitter.com/o8qQFt6xQu

— FanDuel Racing (Formerly TVG) (@FanDuel_Racing) April 6, 2024

Her kick in the Gazelle Stakes (Gr. 3) in the stretch is being glossed over by most handicappers, but I was highly impressed by the effort to pull away. If she gets a clean trip at Churchill Downs, Where’s My Ring will be directly in the line of fire in the stretch.

Where’s My Ring drew incredibly favorably in the No. 3 post, so that certainly helps matters. Tarifa (8) and Where’s My Ring (3) are top plays for my best Kentucky Oaks exacta bet.

I don’t dislike Leslie’s Rose form, but she didn’t have much luck in the draw. Despite this, Leslie’s Rose should generate a strong push in the stretch run.

While I think she comes up just a bit short in a busy stretch, it won’t be because Irad Ortiz Jr. and Leslie’s Rose had a poor trip. The horse will likely keep fighting down to the wire.

She should perform well enough to be in contention, so Leslie’s Rose is worth considering for your trifecta Kentucky Oaks 2024 predictions!