March Madness 2025 First Round Odds, Predictions, and Best Bets

Creighton Bluejays vs. Louisville Cardinals: Louisville -2.5 (-110)

The NCAA Tournament Selection Committee mostly got things right this year. There aren’t any major hiccups to note with the bracket in 2025. However, the Louisville Cardinals are probably under-seeded. They are the No. 8 seed, but I had them as a No. 5 seed for this tournament.

Despite a conference record of 18-2 in the incredibly tough ACC and a 27-7 overall record, the committee didn’t view them overly favorably. Nevertheless, the Cardinals are 24th in NET rating, and have gotten respect otherwise this season.

Louisville is a well-balanced squad on both ends of the floor. They’ve notched 78.6 points per game while yielding 68.9 points per matchup in the NCAA. Led by Chucky Hepburn and Terrence Edwards Jr. in the backcourt, the Cardinals have two playmakers averaging over 16 points per game! Both made it on the 2025 ACC All-Tournament First Team list.

Congratulations to the 2025 All-Tournament Team! pic.twitter.com/cRL3CQHvy9

— ACC Men's Basketball (@accmbb) March 16, 2025

Meanwhile, Creighton ranks 38th in NET in 2024-25. I respect Creighton, but they drew a bad matchup against Louisville on Thursday afternoon. There were several easier opponents for them in this tournament, and they just unfortunately have to meet with a Cards team that should be a lower seed.

Louisville has a slight edge in just about every metric. Look for Hepburn and Edwards Jr. to come up clutch late and put away the Bluejays for a victory by 5+ points. In short, consider laying the points for your March Madness 2025 First Round betting picks!

Montana Grizzlies vs. Wisconsin Badgers: Wisconsin -16.5 (-110)

The No. 14-seed Montana Grizzlies will give it their best shot against No. 3 Wisconsin! Montana earned a berth with a 91-83 win in the Big Sky Tournament. The 25-9 Grizzlies got hot at the right time, but now they’ll have to do it against one of the strongest teams in the Big Ten.

Wisconsin enters fresh off a tough defeat versus the Michigan Wolverines in the Big Ten Championship. They couldn’t find enough offense in a 59-53 loss. However, against Montana, who had the 190th toughest schedule, the Badgers should have no issues versus this paper-thin defense.

The Grizzlies rank 237th in the NCAA, with 74.7 points against per game. Note that this was in the Big Sky — not the most formidable conference in college basketball. Meanwhile, Montana’s offense doesn’t have the firepower to frustrate a physical Wisconsin defense.

"We will see you tomorrow!" pic.twitter.com/lHBnjfR816

— Wisconsin Basketball (@BadgerMBB) March 15, 2025

Montana is 106th in the nation on offense, scoring an average of 75.5 points per game. After Wisconsin’s offense put up a dud, look for the Grizzlies to be in their crosshairs. Despite being stymied against Michigan, the Badgers are solid offensively, with 79.7 points per game, for 36th in the NCAA.

I’m optimistic that Wisconsin will bounce back in a big way in the opening round. They should be 20-point favorites here, so lay -16.5 points for your 2025 NCAA Tournament First Round picks!

Drake Bulldogs vs. Missouri Tigers: Drake +6 (-110)

I’m putting the Missouri Tigers on upset alert in the First Round of March Madness. The Tigers grabbed the No. 6 seed, which sets them up for a tough matchup against the Drake Bulldogs.

Drake isn’t here to lose, and they are one of the hottest teams in the country at the moment. The 30-3 Bulldogs have some prominent wins on their resume, including over Miami, Vanderbilt, and Kansas State early in the season.

It was clear that Drake wasn’t going to face stiff competition in the Mountain Valley and that certainly came true. The Bulldogs have won 18 of their last 19 matchups heading into The Dance. Nevertheless, March Madness betting sites have them as a six-point underdog versus Mizzou.

Missouri played a tough schedule in the SEC, so you have to respect them. However, they cannot overestimate Drake’s lockdown defense. The Bulldogs are second in the nation, yielding an average of 59.7 points per game. Conversely, the Tigers’ defense has been soft, with 73.8 points allowed per game, for 217th in the nation.

𝐄𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐞 𝐂𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐚𝐧𝐲

Drake head coach Ben McCollum has been named a semifinalist for the Naismith Coach of the Year Award

📰➡️https://t.co/vhiE9USfIf#CultureWins l #DSMHometownTeam pic.twitter.com/iJb35AXOTo

— Drake Basketball (@DrakeBulldogsMB) March 14, 2025

Drake must deal with a high-powered Missouri offense scoring 84.5 points a contest, but look for Drake to bother the Tigers enough. Ben McCollum is a fantastic head coach and a semifinalist for the Men’s College Coach of the Year award! He should have them ready to play in this spot.

I expect Missouri to pull the win out late, but not before the Bulldogs give them a headache or two and cover the point spread.

Akron Zips vs. Arizona Wildcats: Akron +13.5 (-110)

Can Akron prove to be one of the biggest upsets of the opening round? Probably not, but a No. 13 seed upsetting a No. 4 seed would be notable! The way I see it, Akron should have a chance to steal a win at the end of this contest.

It’s going to be tough to pull it off, but they have to be feeling confident after erasing an 18-point lead to win the MAC. As the top seed in the conference, Akron got behind early, only to storm back for a 76-74 win over Miami (OH).

NATE. JOHNSON. 🤯@ZipsMBB | #MACtion pic.twitter.com/lo4jP0hPV5

— MACtion (@MACSports) March 16, 2025

The top team in the MAC has won 21 of their previous 22 matchups entering the NCAA Tournament. They got their bad half of basketball out of the way against Miami (OH), and now I believe the Zips could soar to open March Madness. Akron loves to run and their up-tempo attack could give the Wildcats some issues.

The Zips rank seventh in the NCAA, with an average of 84 points per game. They’ve scored at least 88 points in four of their last five matchups. Arizona’s defense is beatable. They’ve surrendered 72.4 points per game, so Akron should put points on the board regardless.

The underdog’s defense could let them down in the second half, but I expect them to keep the final score within 13 points! As one of the best March Madness First Round picks, Akron at +13.5 is a top option.