The Australian Open men’s winner odds for 2025 are out and with the main draw less than a week away, let’s cover this year’s top favorites, sleepers, and best Australian Open winner predictions.
With both Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz winning two slams last year, it’s no wonder the two are neck and neck at the top of the latest betting odds. Let’s dissect the lines, the top favorites, and see who else could win the ATP Australian Open in 2025.
2025 Australian Open Men’s Winner Odds
The following 2025 Australian Open men’s winner odds are courtesy of Bovada:
| PLAYER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Jannik Sinner | +150 |
| Carlos Alcaraz | +300 |
| Novak Djokovic | +400 |
| Alexander Zverev | +700 |
| Daniil Medvedev | +1400 |
| Taylor Fritz | +2800 |
| Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard | +3300 |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | +3300 |
| Alex de Minaur | +5000 |
| Andrey Rublev | +5000 |
The odds to win Australian Open make Italy’s Sinner the leading favorite at +150 at Bovada. This gives him an implied probability of 40%. Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic are also among the top Australian Open contenders before the odds drop to 7-1 and 14-1 for Alexander Zverev and Daniil Medvedev respectively.
If you believe there is value in betting on someone outside of the top five in the Australian Open betting odds, you’ll find some good returns. Even fifth-favorite Taylor Fritz is 28-1 and the odds extend to 33-1 and 50-1 from there.
Men’s Australian Open 2025 Top Favorites
Let’s cover each of the top three betting favorites in the Australian Open ATP odds.
Jannik Sinner (+150)
Rewind to last year and Sinner started off 2024 with a bang by winning the Australian Open over Medvedev. However, the final could have very easily gone the other way, with Medvedev winning the opening two sets before Sinner stormed back to win three-straight.
It was a banner year for the Italian who also won the US Open and the ATP Finals, both over Taylor Fritz in the finals. Sinner took home the most 2024 prize money and was named Player of the Year.
Overall, he won eight singles titles in 2024 and was a near-unstoppable 73-6 in wins and losses. The eight titles and nine finals appearances were both tour-highs. He does enter 2025 with a cloud over his head, though, after a positive 2024 doping result which has yet to be resolved.
Sinner has used this as a motivation in the late stages of last season, and I expect more of the same in Melbourne.
Carlos Alcaraz (+300)
Third-ranked Alcaraz battled injuries in 2024 and only won four titles, his lowest in three seasons. However, he won the ones that count, emerging victorious in each of the French Open (over Zverev) and Wimbledon (over Djokovic). He was also 54-13 in matches last season.
Alcaraz can become the youngest player to win all four majors if he wins in Australia to earn the Career Grand Slam. However, he’s never made it past the quarterfinals in this tournament.
As dominant as Sinner was in 2024, Alcaraz did prove to be his toughest opponent. The Spaniard defeated the World No. 1 all three times they met last year and has won five of seven recent matches and owns a 6-4 career edge in the H2H history of this matchup.
Novak Djokovic (+400)
Once a dominant force in Melbourne, winning it 10 times and in five of the past seven years, Djokovic comes in as the third favorite in the Australian Open men’s betting odds. He was eliminated in the semifinals of the tournament last year.
Djokovic is now in the tail end of his career and is often battling injuries, including during the ATP Finals, which he missed out on. However, he is still a force in any tournament he enters.
The all-time Grand Slam titles leader has 24 major championships and was 37-9 in 2024, but did only win one title all season. That was the least number of matches he’s played in since 2005. Finishing 2024 without any Grand Slam titles was also the first time Djokovic failed to win one since 2017.
That leaves Djokovic with 99 titles during his illustrious career. What better way to win number 100 than with another Aussie Open win with the legendary Andy Murray by his side as his new coach?
The question here is whether the Serbian icon anywhere near his physical best. I’m not quite sure that’s the case, so backing Djokovic is not the best idea.
Men’s Australian Open 2025 Sleepers
Looking for a higher return? There are four players who could upset the Australian Open men’s odds.
Daniil Medvedev (+1400)
Last season wasn’t the best year for Medvedev by any means. He failed to win a single title for the first time since 2017. A 46-21 match record was also 20 fewer wins than he had in 2023 (66-18), but there’s a reason to be optimistic early in 2025.
While Medvedev is yet to win the Australian Open, this tournament does usually bring out the best in the Russian, currently ranked 5th in the World. In fact, he started 2024 off by coming one set away from winning in Australia, before losing to Sinner.
It’s actually the second time in his career he’s gone up two sets in an Aussie Open Final only to go on to lose, also doing so in 2022 versus Rafael Nadal. Having now reached the final in 2021, 2022 and 2024, Medvedev has been one of the most consistent players Down Under despite continually coming up short.
He also ran deep in other slams in 2024 reaching the round of 16 in the French Open, semifinals of Wimbledon and quarterfinals of the US Open. Medvedev is a poor 1-8 versus Sinner in recent matches, but if he can gain a favorable draw or the Italian is off his game to start 2025, Medvedev is a fantastic option at +1400.
Taylor Fritz (+2800)
Fritz made it all the way to the US Open Final, his first slam final, before losing to Sinner 6–3, 6–4, 7–5. He also reached the ATP Finals, again losing to Sinner, this time 6–4, 6–4.
With these results and a 53-23 match record, he finished the year at a career-high of 4th in the ATP Rankings. Fritz has proven he can run deep into tournaments. He’s failed to defeat Sinner when it counts and has lost four of five matches with the Italian but does have plenty of experience to draw on.
2025 also started off with a bang for Fritz as a member of the title-winning USA team at the United Cup last weekend.
Alex de Minaur (+5000)
At 50-1 in the Australian Open odds, betting on the hometown favorite in Alex de Minaur could return a hefty payday. He’s the highest ranked Australian in the tournament and comes in with an ATP Ranking of #9 in the World.
No Aussie has reached the final since Lleyton Hewitt in 2005 and de Minaur has never made it past the Round of 16 in this tournament. But he was 47-21 last season and won two titles while dealing with a troublesome hip injury.
Still, he reached the quarterfinals at Roland Garros, Wimbledon and the US Open. He was also a part of the team that reached the semifinals at the Davis Cup.
Grigor Dimitrov (+10000)
This is contingent on the Bulgarian being healthy enough to play. He was 46-18, winning one title in 2024 and ended the season in strong form. He started 2025 as the 10th-ranked player and went all the way to the semifinals at Brisbane.
However, Dimitrov had to withdraw in the second set due to a leg injury. With a quick turnaround before the Australian Open, certainly concerns about him making a deep run could be valid when making your Australian Open predictions to win the tournament.
But if healthy, considering he reached the quarters at the US Open, plus a final, round of 16, quarterfinal and semifinal in his last four tournaments, he could be worth a flyer at 100-1 in the Australian Open winner odds, even if only for a hedging strategy.
Men’s Australian Open 2025 Predictions and Betting Pick
Like most events, the Aussie Open had been dominated by the Big Three for many years. However, for the first time since 2014, a new winner emerged with Sinner claiming his first major. It’s hard to know where the 23-year-old’s mind will be with the potential of as much as a six-month ban looming. At this short price, I prefer to look elsewhere for our Australian Open outright winner picks.
Of course, Alcaraz and Djokovic would surprise no one with title wins, but Alcaraz has never won this event and Djokovic’s health at 37 is starting to become a concern.
A player that always seems to make a deep run Down Under is Medvedev, so let’s make the Russian our pick at a better price for this year’s Australian Open predictions. The price of +1400 is simply the best value bet for the men’s singles tournament.
Where to Bet on the Australian Open 2025?
Bovada is one of the top tennis betting sites and has all of your 2025 Australian Open betting odds covered. Check out Bovada’s odds and props for every match, plus futures betting each quarter and outright winner for the men’s and women’s tournaments, all month.
New customers at Bovada can also claim an exciting welcome offer of 100% up to $1,000 on their first deposit with a bonus code, BV1000.
