The men’s Final Four 4 betting odds for the 2024 NCAA Tournament were released by the March Madness betting sites almost immediately after the Elite 8 finished. In this article, I am taking you on a tour of the latest lines and my thoughts on both Final 4 games in Phoenix, AZ!
The semifinals are scheduled for Saturday, April 6, at State Farm Stadium. On the subsequent Monday, the NCAA Men’s 2024 National Championship will tip off at 6:40 p.m. ET.
Keep reading to see the latest March Madness Final Four odds and my predictions!
Alabama vs. Connecticut Odds, Predictions, and Best Bets
The following odds for Final 4 2024 are courtesy of Bovada:
| TEAM | SPREAD | MONEYLINE | TOTAL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama Crimson Tide | +11.5 (-105) | +500 | Over 161.5 (-105) |
| UConn Huskies | -11.5 (-115) | -700 | Under 161.5 (-115) |
The Final Four odds suggest that Alabama is going home, but the Crimson Tide have been fantastic so far. Behind a hot shooting stroke from three, Alabama has been a dangerous team to contend with in the NCAA Tournament.
Alabama defeated the Clemson Tigers in a high-scoring 89-82 game to reach the Final Four. Mark Sears was too much to handle in the backcourt, while Nick Pringle handled the load for the Crimson Tide in the paint. It’s an impressive run for the No. 4 seed of the West Region.
However, the Crimson Tide will take on the well-polished Connecticut Huskies team in the semifinals. The college has been favored for the NCAA Men’s National Championship since day one, and their performances so far prove the initial estimates are right. UConn is the team to beat in this tournament.
Team Records and Final 4 Betting Trends
Following an 89-82 win over the Clemson Tigers, Alabama advanced to 25-11 on the year. Despite losing four of six games entering the NCAA Tournament, the Crimson Tide are off to the Final Four for the first time in school history.
Alabama was bounced from the SEC Tournament with a 102-88 loss to the Florida Gators. They finished just 13-5 in the SEC, but are the only team left playing basketball in the conference.
Also, Alabama struggled on the road at 5-5, but has been great on a neutral court in the NCAA Tournament. The team is hot at the right time, which is one of the most important ingredients in March Madness.
Alabama Trends:
- 21-15-0 ATS (58.3%) overall
- 5-5-0 ATS (50%) on a neutral court
- 4-0-0 ATS (100%) in the NCAA Tournament
- 3-6-0 ATS (33.3%) as an underdog
The problem for Alabama is the next opponent. UConn are the defending champs and remain the deepest and most talented team in the country. The 35-3 Huskies are on an 11-game winning streak, with victories in 25 of their previous 26 attempts.
They’ve romped through the tournament thus far, winning all of their matchups by an average of 27.75 points per game! Neutral court games have been a specialty of the Huskies, as they are 10-1-0 ATS in 11 games this season!
UConn Trends:
- 26-12 ATS (68.40%) overall
- 10-1-0 ATS (90.9%) on a neutral court
- 4-0-0 ATS (100%) in the NCAA Tournament
- 26-11 ATS (70.3%) as a betting favorite
Key Players
UConn has to keep a close on Alabama’s Mark Sears and not allow him to get comfortable. If he gets hot, the Crimson Tide will have a chance to pull off the upset. It won’t be easy against this defense, but the guard is the key to success.
Sears leads Alabama with 21.5 points on excellent shooting splits, including an impressive field goal percentage of 50.4%. He’s connected on 43.4% of his three-point attempts while leading Alabama to the most points per game in the nation at 90.6.
The problem is that the Huskies are so well-balanced that they can rely on multiple players. Still, the centerpiece of UConn is center Donovan Clingan. He is making a good case for being a top-10 selection in the 2024 NBA Draft. Clingan is a physical force on both ends of the floor for UConn.
With a quality distributor and scorer in Tristen Newman, UConn is built well in the back and frontcourt. Newton has recorded 15 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 6.1 assists per game.
Alabama vs. UConn Betting Pick
The Crimson Tide have a high-powered offense, but Dan Hurley’s squad has the ability to disrupt their rhythm.
UConn’s opponents are scoring just 63.3 points per game against the Huskies, and they are stingy against three-pointers, conceding only 30.9% of the shots from behind the arc they face.
What Alabama does great, UConn can match up and neutralize. When the shots aren’t falling for the Crimson Tide, they don’t have a strong defense to rely on to stay competitive.
Alabama has the 348th-ranked defense in the nation. That won’t work versus the Huskies. Once UConn forces Alabama out of their offensive groove, this is likely to become uncompetitive quickly.
UConn’s March Madness Final Four 2024 odds are in the double digits for good reason here. I like the Huskies to pull away for a 14 to 16-point win and cover the spread.
NC State vs. Purdue Odds, Predictions, and Best Bets
The following odds for Final 4 2024 are courtesy of Bovada:
| TEAM | SPREAD | MONEYLINE | TOTAL |
|---|---|---|---|
| NC State Wolfpack | +9 (-105) | +355 | Over 146 (-110) |
| Purdue Boilermakers | -9 (-115) | -500 | Under 146 (-110) |
The beat goes on for the No. 11 seed of the South Region. The NC State Wolfpack reached their first Final Four since 1983 after bypassing the Duke Blue Devils, 76-64.
As I’ve said before, March Madness is about getting hot at the right time, and NC State has this part down. They are the lowest seed remaining in the tournament, which rivals San Diego State’s run as a No. 5 seed last year.
Purdue has elevated their game tenfold in the wake of last season’s collapse in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Led by big man Zach Edey, the Boilermakers edged away from the Tennessee Volunteers to book their ticket to Phoenix.
The top sports betting sites expect another step in the right direction against NC State, but let’s see if that evaluation holds up to scrutiny.
Team Records and Final 4 Betting Trends
NC State did not get to the Final Four because they were the best team during the regular season in the ACC. They went just 9-11 in the conference, but this team is feeling confident and red-hot from the floor.
The Wolfpack enter Phoenix with an overall record of 26-14. Since beating Louisville in the ACC Tournament opener, the Wolfpack have won nine straight games, including the conference title game versus the UNC Tar Heels, 84-76.
NC State Trends:
- 20-19-1 ATS (51.3%) overall
- 8-4-0 ATS (66.7%) on a neutral court
- 3-1-0 ATS (75%) in the NCAA Tournament
- 12-6-1 ATS (66.7%) as an underdog
The Boilermakers were a polarizing team going into March Madness. Many people believe they are too one-dimensional to win the NCAA Tournament. That may still hold true, but they’re only two wins away from reaching their ultimate goal.
The team standing in their way, Purdue, boasts a 33-4 record and won the Big Ten championship. After winning the regular season title, they did the same in the conference tournament behind the 7-foot-4 Edey. Additionally, Purdue was a profitable bet against the spread throughout the season.
Purdue Trends:
- 20-15-2 ATS (57.1%) overall
- 8-2-1 ATS (80%) on a neutral court
- 3-1-0 ATS (75%) in the NCAA Tournament
- 18-15-2 ATS (54.6%) as a betting favorite
Key Players
Edey is the star of this Final Four matchup between NC State and Purdue. The Boilermaker is the odds-on favorite to win the National Basketball Player of the Year award and has been an MVP of this tournament.
In the Elite Eight, Edey had yet another standout performance. He recorded 40 points and 16 rebounds. Whenever Purdue needed a hoop, the Boilermakers would dump the ball off to Edey on the blocks and let him work. That is essentially the Purdue offense summed up in one sentence.
It’s not flashy or complicated, but it’s incredibly difficult to stop. Purdue doesn’t have the best backcourt, though Fletcher Moyer has been providing clutch shots throughout the NCAA Tournament. However, this game is going to come down to the big men.
DJ Burns Jr. has provided the Wolfpack with a strong and physical presence in the frontcourt. Burns Jr. is coming off a 29-point effort in the win over the Blue Devils. The 23-year-old senior will need another strong outing to hold Edey at bay.
NC State vs. Purdue Betting Pick
Purdue’s 2024 Final 4 odds indicate that they should win without too many issues. At -500 on the moneyline, Purdue has an implied probability of 83.3% to beat NC State.
I agree that Purdue is the favorite and probably should win. However, nine points feels like too many with this confident Wolfpack squad. Keep in mind that NC State didn’t get to the Final Four due to a fluke.
They might be an 11th seed, but this team has depth with Burns Jr. and DJ Horne in the backcourt. The latter is an experienced and multi-faceted guard who can score by attacking the rim or from the perimeter. Edey will get his points, but Horne should be difficult to contain for Purdue’s guards.
DJ HORNE OFF GLASS ‼️
NC STATE LEADS BY 12 😱 #MarchMadness pic.twitter.com/a3Ee0FAo69
— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) March 31, 2024
I expect a tight game, with Purdue ultimately getting a couple of clutch buckets from Edey late to preserve a win. That said, NC State is likely to compete and play hard down to the wire.
Momentum and confidence can supersede any talking point at this time of the year. The Wolfpack earn a big checkmark in that department. NC State’s Final Four 2024 odds are a solid pick at +9 on the point spread.
Do You Agree With My Final 4 Predictions?
Is there anything that you would change with my Final Four predictions? After going 5-3-0 with two out of three wins in my March Madness best bets in the last round, I am enjoying a profitable tournament entering the final three games.
Whether you want to follow me or bet on different outcomes, I strongly suggest using Bovada. With the most up-to-date odds and selection on a safe and reputable betting platform, Bovada is a top choice for March Madness betting.
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Sources
Alabama Crimson Tide 2023-24 Men’s College Basketball Stats | ESPN.com. Retrieved From “https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/team/stats/_/id/333/alabama-crimson-tide”
UConn Huskies 2023-24 Men’s College Basketball stats | ESPN.com. Retrieved From “https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/team/stats/_/id/41”
NCAA College Men’s Basketball DI Stats | NCAA.com. Retrieved From “https://www.ncaa.com/stats/basketball-men/d1”
