The 2025 Miami Open Final odds heavily favor Novak Djokovic against teenager Jakub Mensik, who will be fighting for his first ATP Tour title ever. In comparison, the Serbian is looking for his 100th Tour title and his seventh in Miami!
Can the underdog upset the odds and beat his famous opponent on Sunday? Let’s analyze both players before I share my prediction for the Miami Open Final 2025.
Miami Open Final: Mensik vs. Djokovic Betting Odds and Lines
Let’s check the main Mensik vs Djokovic odds for this match, courtesy of Bovada:
| OUTCOME | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Jakub Mensik moneyline | +325 |
| Novak Djokovic moneyline | -425 |
| Jakub Mensik +4 games | -130 |
| Novak Djokovic -4 games | +100 |
| Total games over 22.5 | -115 |
| Total games under 22.5 | -115 |
Djokovic is the clear -425 favorite to win straight up in the Miami Open odds, with Mensik available at +325 as the underdog. Oddsmakers are giving Mensik a chance of least keeping the final close though, with the Mensik spread of four games juiced to -130.
Whether you’re betting on the standard markets listed above or looking for more advanced betting lines, we recommend checking out Bovada when making your Miami Open picks. Bovada offers competitive lines and a huge list of props from first set outcomes, service and break props, as well as alternate totals in many markets.
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Jakub Mensik – Can He Win First ATP Title?
Unseeded Mensik has only dropped one set on his way to the final so can’t be discounted as a potential upset pick. His wins have included two top-ten upsets of Jack Draper in the Round of 64 and then Taylor Fritz last round in the semifinals.
The semis were the closest match for Mensik where he finally lost a set but prevailed 7-6(4) 4-6 7-6(4). Against Fritz, Mensik’s serve was on point as he recorded an incredible 25 aces.
Mensik d. Fritz 7-6 4-6 7-6
19 year old Jakub is into the biggest final of his career.
2nd top 10 win of the week.
He hit 25 aces tonight… unreal serving.
✅1st Masters final
✅1st Miami final
✅2nd career final
✅7th top 10 winWeek of his life… but it’s not done yet. 🇨🇿 pic.twitter.com/em5auKfD9L
— The Tennis Letter (@TheTennisLetter) March 29, 2025
His win over Indian Wells champion Draper was also close, 7–6(2) 7-6(3). In fact, of his eight sets won, only one has been by more than two games.
By beating two top-ten players this tournament, Mensik now owns the third-best winning percentage among active players (58.3%) against the top ten. Only Djokovic (69%) and Carlos Alcaraz (63.2%) have been better. Overall, Mensik’s 2025 record now sits at 16-7.
The 19-year-old is 54th in the ATP Rankings and has yet to win an ATP Tour title in his career, however, will surge into the top 30 after this event. He’s become the third-lowest ranked player to ever reach the Miami Open Final.
Novak Djokovic – Will He Win 7th Miami Open Title?
Djokovic first won the Miami Open in 2007, when his opponent, Mensik, had only recently been born. The Serbian has gone on to win in Miami six more times, but none since 2016. The 24-time Grand Slam winner is still breaking records.
🇷🇸🤯 When Novak Djokovic played his first match at the Miami Open, Jakub Mensik – his 2025 final opponent – wasn’t even *SEVEN MONTHS OLD*
Unbelievable longevity. 🔥 pic.twitter.com/gfiNwM2o0Y
— Olly Tennis 🎾🇬🇧 (@Olly_Tennis_) March 29, 2025
He’s already become the oldest semifinalist and now finalist in Masters 1000 history and broke the record for most wins earlier this tournament. A victory on Sunday will see him take over the all-time lead for Miami Open wins with seven, a record he currently holds with Andre Agassi.
The 5th-ranked Djokovic may not be the dominant force of past years, but when he’s focused and healthy is still one of the best players in the game. That looks to be the case in Miami where he’s yet to drop a set or win a match by fewer than four games.
In the semifinals, Djokovic defeated Grigor Dimitrov 6-2 6-3, winning 87% of his first serves and 4/6 breakpoints. That brings his 2025 record to 12-4 overall, but more importantly, this victory shows that the Serbian is very close to his optimal form.
Jakub Mensik vs Novak Djokovic Prediction and Betting Pick
This will be just the second meeting between Mensik and Djokovic, who played in the quarterfinals at the Shanghai Masters last fall. The teenager was able to take the first set in a tie-breaker, however, Djokovic rebounded to win 6-7(4) 6-1 6-4.
I expect a similar result because Djokovic seems to be on another level, just at the right time. Mensik’s serve should keep the match competitive, but the favorite will find opportunities to break. Going after the main spread is a bit risky, though, so I prefer the -3.5 option for my Miami Open Final prediction.
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