It’s Spring 2021, and we’re already looking forward to the next electoral contest! First, there are the 2022 midterms; then, the 2024 presidential election cycle officially begins.
Of course, preliminary 2024 campaigns have already been launched by some prospective candidates. Nobody is declaring their candidacy yet, but the top contenders are already scoping out the field and plotting possible paths to the nomination. It’s early, but not too early to choose some core issues and develop messaging strategies around them.
The most promising prospective candidates aren’t the only ones getting a headstart on 2024. The top political oddsmakers have already begun handicapping the next general elections too! The 2024 presidential election futures odds featured on this page were provided by Bovada.
As always, remember: it’s impossible to predict everything that will happen between now and the 2024 party primaries. The political landscape in the three years might bear no resemblance to current US politics.
That doesn’t mean getting an early jump on the action is pointless. We can observe current signs and patterns and generate a relatively accurate range of informed predictions. The decisions candidates make today could reverberate well into the future – they could even decide the election ultimately!
The earliest 2024 forecasts look pretty similar for both parties.
In each case, their most popular candidate is of advanced age, leaving significant question marks concerning their availability in three years. Political operatives and donors have Trump and Biden’s successors in mind, but there are significant uncertainties regarding their abilities to garner popular support.
For example, Kamala Harris opened the 2020 election cycle as the Democratic establishment’s preferred candidate. But she was rejected by voters, ended her campaign before a single primary contest, and was forced to settle for the Vice Presidency.
Nevertheless, we’ll continue operating under the assumption that Biden and Harris are the DNC’s top two choices.
Once you get past them, the Democratic field is a chaotic mess.
Anything pertaining to the Republican Party’s future goes through Donald Trump.
If the former President chooses to make another bid for the White House, he’ll win the GOP nomination in a landslide. If Trump prefers to stay on the sidelines, his endorsement will decide which Republican leads the ticket.
Who will inherit Trump’s supporters (and thus control of the Republican Party)?
- When will President Trump make his 2024 status known?
- What process will he use when picking an endorsee?
- How does a conservative find that balance between Trumpism and establishment moderates? Is it possible to unify both sides?
- Might the qualities required to win the GOP primary be less advantageous in the general election — and vice versa? For example, could Trump’s approval be a prerequisite to winning the Republican nomination but a liability on Election Day?
On this page, we’ll explore a presidential candidate whose potential participation in the 2024 election cycle would be indicative of avalanches of overturned plans, mounting desperation, and general chaos. Because despite her popularity, Michelle Obama does not want to be the President.
If in three years, she’s involved in the election, there will be a long, complicated answer as to “why?”
To find additional 2024 presidential election odds, visit our highest-ranked political betting sites!
Michelle Obama
Michelle Obama served as President Barack Obama’s First Lady from 2009 through 2016. The 57-year-old Chicago native is a graduate of Princeton University and Harvard Law School – so she’s got the requisite “brains” for the job.
The former First Lady played a prominent role in Barack Obama’s political career. In addition to campaigning on his behalf, Michelle has delivered acclaimed speeches at every Democratic National Convention since 2008 – including that year’s keynote address.
In fact, it was her passionate 2016 performance that inspired all the excitement around a hypothetical Michelle Obama 2024 run.
While Barack was in office, Mrs. Obama used her platform to advocate for healthy eating, physical activity, and poverty awareness. As the first African American First Lady, Michelle has also served as an influential role model for women and young girls.
In December, a poll asked Democratic primary voters “whom they would vote for if the 2024 primary were held today.” Michelle Obama topped the McLaughlin & Associates poll with 29% support.
2024 National Democratic Primary:
Michelle Obama 29%
Harris 25%
Ocasio-Cortez 7%
Buttigieg 5%
Cuomo 5%
Booker 3%
Hickenlooper 3%
Klobuchar 2%
Kaine 2%
Patrick 1%
Gillibrand 1%
Omar 1%McLaughlin & Associates 12/9-13https://t.co/JVW1etg2yo
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) December 15, 2020
Most Americans have a positive opinion of former First Lady Obama. Liberals absolutely adore her – which is why you see Michelle beating the sitting Vice President by 4 percent and smashing the rest of the field by double-digits.
- The national Morning Consult and Politico poll found that 60% of registered voters had favorable opinions of Obama, compared to 46% for Biden. Michelle’s rating was even two points higher than her husband’s!
- The former First Lady is most favorable among Democrats and Black voters, who scored her at 91% and 87%, respectively.
I don’t know if Michelle Obama can be convinced to run for president – but if so, she instantly becomes one of the Democratic Party’s most formidable candidates.
Here are Michelle Obama’s early 2024 betting odds at Bovada:
2024 Democratic Primary Odds:
2024 Presidential Election Odds:
Would Michelle Obama Run in 2024?
If you take her word for it, Michelle Obama 2024 will never happen.
She claims not to want the job or have an interest in politics. Based on her responses to questions about any future political ambitions, Obama gives the sense that she’d loathe being forced to participate in political gamesmanship.
Absent any personal drive for the White House, one can assume that it’d have to be an emergency for the former First Lady to compete in the 2024 presidential election.
If not for herself, what factors might persuade Mrs. Obama to run, despite her well-documented reluctance?
The Obama Legacy
Michelle might feel inclined to make a bid for the presidency out of consideration for her husband’s legacy. What if the neoliberal agenda advanced under President Obama was threatened?
We already saw Trump try to reverse as much of his predecessor’s work as possible. This time, the Democrats had a strong candidate in Obama’s former Vice President, Joe Biden, to save the day. As soon as he was inaugurated, Biden set about signing executive orders to reinstate Obama-era policies and undo Trump’s
- With President Biden rapidly aging out of politics, who takes up the Obama dynasty’s mantle next?
- Facing a Trump-like Republican promising to eliminate Obamacare, what happens if Kamala Harris fails to fill his role and head the Democratic ticket?
After Biden and Harris, the 2024 Dem favorites are Stacey Abrams, Elizabeth Warren, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez – would you pick any of them over Michelle Obama, given a choice? Not if you want to win.
Obama’s “Third Term”
As the president-elect, Biden was asked about the claims that his victory amounted to a third term in office for Barack Obama.
“This is not a third Obama term because … we face a totally different world than we faced in the Obama/Biden administration,” President-elect Biden told the Daily Mail shortly after winning the election. Adding: “President Trump has changed the landscape. It’s become America first; it’s been America alone.”
Those two lines illustrate Biden’s approach to the presidency: it’s not about extending Barack Obama’s influence and legislative agenda beyond restrictive term limits; the more significant focus is returning to pre-Trump “normalcy” in general.
Of course, there’s what Joe Biden says; then there’s what Joe Biden does.
The President can claim his administration isn’t an extension of the Obama years, but his cabinet appointments say otherwise.
President Biden also loves to talk about how he values established personal relationships when making political decisions, including selecting his cabinet members.
Before Inauguration Day, Obama’s VP justified his management philosophy, suggesting the added familiarity would result in hires being “ready on day one,” and expediting on-ramping the new administration.
Those explanations are empty political jargon.
In reality, Joe Biden’s administration is full of former Obama appointees because they both serve the same corporate masters. They share the same foreign policy philosophies. Both Democratic leaders listen to the same advisors and have the same donors to appease.
Yes — but not necessarily because of anything unique to Obama. It’s the continuation of the centrist neoliberal agenda that’s dominated the Democratic Party since the Clinton administration.
The Obama machine is sharp; they orchestrated Biden’s Super Tuesday victory.
Through a series of phone calls, the former President convinced centrist Democrats to end their campaigns and endorse Joe. He also got Elizabeth Warren to persist with her crusade, just long enough to cost Bernie Sanders several primary states. Once the damage was done, she too dropped out.
They know better than to assume Vice President Harris will adequately step into the presidency and lead a triumphant 2024 ticket.
There’s zero evidence that she’s a viable nationwide candidate. Harris’s 2020 campaign was a disaster; it didn’t even survive to the Iowa caucus – the first primary contest!
His wife!
- Democrats adore Michelle Obama.
- If they’re replacing the sitting Vice President on top of the ticket, it must be with a woman of color. Whether she’s running as the incumbent President or Biden’s VP/heir apparent, DNC leaders cannot replace Kamala with another old white man without severely alienating an influential subsection within the party.
- There’s also the “two-for-one” factor. Michelle would be the President, but Democratic voters would take comfort in knowing Barack was back in the White House – even if it’s just as the First Gentleman. Because labels aside, the Michelle Obama administration would obviously be a cooperative effort.
Michelle Has Repeatedly Said She Doesn’t Want to Run for President
Unfortunately, the former First Lady has repeatedly and emphatically rejected the prospect of becoming President. She’s flat-out stated, “I don’t want to be President; I don’t think I should be President.”
The complete absence of presidential ambitions is a pretty enormous hurdle to clear for “Michelle Obama 2024” bettors.
Has anyone ever won a general election after openly expressing their lack of desire to hold office or participate in politics?!
A Worthy Threat
The Obamas appear to be having plenty of fun away from the White House. They make hundreds of millions of dollars through various book deals, television productions, and speaking engagements. Meanwhile, they’re as influential as ever among Democrats.
Why would the Obama family pause the gravy train for the stress and responsibility of running a country?
I suspect she’d only enter the race out of a sense of duty.
Only a perfect storm consisting of an unusually reviled (and threatening) Republican nominee combined with the complete exhaustion of all acceptable Democratic alternatives could provide adequate inspiration. The stakes must be unprecedentedly high.
- Let’s say Biden leaves office, making Harris the incumbent in 2024 – only for her poll numbers to sag to 2019 Democratic primary levels. Her support numbers languish in the dumpster for over a month.
- Hoping to capitalize on the DNC’s vulnerable situation, Republicans decide to rerun Donald Trump — only this time, against a substantially weaker opponent.
- Left without a candidate capable of defending against Trump, Barack and Michelle Obama may feel compelled to intervene directly. (Even the GOP nominating a “Trump Republican” like Ron DeSantis, Ted Cruz, or Josh Hawley instead of the man himself could spark sufficient motivation.)
If Kamala Harris isn’t popular enough to win in the polls, they won’t foolishly rely on experience and the American voters’ sense of decency to pull them through. And once they’re looking for options outside of Harris and Biden, the party’s nomination is anyone’s game.
Michelle Obama may have cemented herself as the last possible resort, but that’s still an option! She’s three rounds of disappointing Kamala polls and one adequately worrisome Republican villain away from proving why you “never say never.”
Like I said — Obama 2024 is a longshot, but the proper sequence of outcomes occurring at the exact right moments could make it a reality.
