MLB Cy Young 2025 Odds for AL and NL: Skenes to Be Crowned?

2025 NL Cy Young Odds

The following NL Cy Young betting odds are courtesy of Bovada:

Following the first week of the MLB season, Paul Skenes (+200) remains the favorite to win the NL Cy Young. Skenes’ NL Cy Young odds have dropped from +220 to +200 after making his first start of the season.

In short, Skenes’ improved probability of winning has improved slightly from 31.3% to 33.3%. There is a fairly significant gap between Skenes and the second-best favorite, Zack Wheeler (+750).

Wheeler’s odds to win the Cy Young have remained the same at +750, but Chris Sale (+1000), the defending NL Cy Young winner, has regressed from +850 to +1000. Sale’s chances of winning have slid from 10.5% to 9.1%, though only after one start.

AL Cy Young Odds

The following AL Cy Young betting odds are courtesy of Bovada:

Despite a poor start to open 2025, Tarik Skubal (+350) is still the favorite to win the AL Cy Young in 2025. According to the latest AL Cy Young odds, Skubal has a 22.2% implied probability to repeat as the winner this season.

Garrett Crochet (+400) is the only pitcher among the top favorites to see any movement after the first week. The Red Sox pitchers’ AL Cy Young 2025 odds improved from +500 to +400, or a 16.7% to 20% difference.

Crochet has seen the largest shift since early March, as he’s down to +400 from +600. His odds continue to improve for the Cy Young, but is the Red Sox hurler the right pick to win? Cole Ragans (+900) might have something to say about that, though he’s behind Crochet and Skubal with a 10% chance.

Paul Skenes (+200)

Skenes returned to the mound in 2025 for the first MLB Opening Day assignment of his career. He was in decent form against the Marlins, but it wasn’t enough to direct his bad club to a victory.

The 22-year-old phenom allowed three hits and two earned runs in a 5-4 loss to the Marlins. Look for Skenes to bring his ERA of 3.38 down quickly.

Paul Skenes wants better for Pittsburgh fans pic.twitter.com/8p8X0yXvnf

— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) March 23, 2025

Last season, after starting in the minors a season ago, Skenes made his Major League debut on May 11. After some early struggles, he settled in and proved why he was the top pitching prospect in baseball.

There wasn’t another debut quite as hyped up since Stephen Strasburg in 2010. Skenes delivered by finishing with a 1.96 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and 170 strikeouts through 23 starts.

On August 28, Skenes held an ERA of 2.23 and brought that down to under 2.00 in his final five performances. If Skenes played a full schedule, he would have won the Cy Young.

Skenes worked on two new pitches in spring training that are sure to only elevate his stock. He can get by just fine with his elite four-seamer, sinker, slider, sweeper, and curveball.

Paul Skenes, Fastball & Cutter Overlay.

Why that NEW Cutter makes hitting even more unfair. pic.twitter.com/pWUIpOAFe3

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 2, 2025

However, Skenes doesn’t think it’s enough, so the 6’7” footer is adding even more to his arsenal: a two-seam fastball and cutter. Hitters don’t need to think about additional pitches to worry about at the plate, but Skenes appears to be bringing it!

Pitchers from losing teams have a tougher time winning the Cy Young, but he is too good and one of the only pitchers that can overcome an unfavorable team record. Skenes must be high on your NL Cy Young picks shortlist!

Zack Wheeler (+750)

Phillies’ ace Wheeler is in search of his first Cy Young after finishing as the runner-up in 2024. He received four first-place and 25 second-place votes in the voting process. It’s the second time in Wheeler’s career that he finished as the runner-up in Cy Young voting.

In 2021, the pitcher suffered a similar fate and ended up second for the Cy Young!

Wheeler has been in awful form in spring training, with an 11.25 ERA and 2.25 WHIP through four innings of work. That said, I wouldn’t allow it to get a bad perception of Wheeler.

Zack Wheeler's 5Ks thru 3. pic.twitter.com/v68K18ut2j

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 27, 2025

While Skenes’ NL Cy Young odds edged further ahead, Phillies’ ace Zach Wheeler’s price remains the same at +750. This is even though Wheeler got off to an electric start on Opening Day.

The runner-up to Sale in 2024 voting dazzled with two hits and one earned run yielded across six innings of work. It was against the lowly Washington Nationals, so the start doesn’t get much respect from the betting public! I suspect his MLB Cy Young odds would have improved if it were against a contender.

Is this the year that the 34-year-old finally puts it all together and garners enough attention from voters? He certainly had the production on paper last year. Wheeler posted a 2.57 ERA and 0.96 WHIP through 32 matchups.

This was a career-high for Wheeler, but he was unable to break through for the top pitching honor in baseball. I don’t think he can improve enough to beat Skenes in 2025. Wheeler’s NL Cy Young odds at +750 are tempting, but he likely plateaued last season and won’t find the extra gear required.

Chris Sale (+1000)

The big-armed lefty returns to the mound seeking back-to-back Cy Young awards. Sale received the ultimate award for the first time in his career in 2024. He recorded a 2.38 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and 225 strikeouts to lock in the Cy Young.

Sale cruised with 26 of 30 first-place votes available. While Wheeler put up a big fight, his four votes were not going to do it. Sale’s impact on the bump was reflected in his WAR number. The 35-year-old veteran ranked third in the Major Leagues amongst pitchers with a 6.2 WAR.

Your National League Pitching Triple Crown winner: Chris Sale 👏 pic.twitter.com/QHWz7CahpD

— MLB (@MLB) October 1, 2024

Nevertheless, Sale hasn’t gotten off to a smooth start in his defense of the Cy Young. He holds a 5.40 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in starts against the Dodgers and Padres on the road. Although Sale’s numbers will improve, he faces a tough journey back to the winner’s circle in the NL.

The difficult part will be improving his production from last year. If Skenes is anywhere close to his expected form, Sale may even have to be sharper than last year. Like Wheeler, he will likely plateau after reaching the peak in 2024.

That doesn’t mean Sale won’t have an outstanding year for the Braves. However, capturing consecutive Cy Young nods will likely be tough.

Tarik Skubal (+350)

The Tigers were the big surprise of the 2024 MLB season. Following a miserable start to the year, they caught fire in the second half to clinch a spot in the ALDS. Skubal played a critical role in helping spark the Tigers’ improbable run to the postseason.

The 28-year-old Hayward, CA, native went on a tear, with an ERA of 2.39 and 0.92 WHIP. He struck out 228 batters en route to the highest WAR in baseball at 6.3. It’s been a steady ascent for Skubal’s career over the last three years.

In 2022, Skubal booked a 3.52 in his third year in the Major Leagues. He followed up with a 2.80 ERA and then an ERA of 2.39 and 0.92 WHIP in his Cy Young campaign. Will Skubal add even more to his resume this season? He was in top form throughout spring training, as Skubal finished with a 2.33 ERA and 0.83 WHIP.

Tarik Skubal, ankle-breaking curveball. pic.twitter.com/5m3ZabB63s

— Evan Petzold (@EvanPetzold) March 3, 2025

Skubal didn’t get the start he was looking for in his 2025 season opener. He yielded six hits and four earned runs in a loss to the Dodgers. The defending AL Cy Young winner was nailed with a 7.20 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. That said, Skubal’s stats will look much improved shortly!

That said, it isn’t difficult to win back-to-back Cy Young awards in the AL. Pedro Martinez was the last pitcher to do so 25 years ago in 2000!

Garrett Crochet (+400)

The former White Sox starter aims to make a huge splash in his first year with the Boston Red Sox. The acquisition largely went under the radar compared to other deals this offseason, but Crochet is a big-time addition for the Red Sox. Bettors are paying attention, as his AL Cy Young odds have improved from +600 to +400 over the last month.

He was on fire during spring training in the Grapefruit League, with a 0.57 ERA and 1.34 WHIP across five starts and 15.2 innings. In his first regular season start of 2025, the talented lefty was in fine form with five hits and two earned runs through five innings versus the Rangers.

All 9️⃣ of Garrett Crochet's Ks 🔥

He also lowered his #SpringTraining ERA to 0.57. pic.twitter.com/VR5bSAGHhR

— MLB (@MLB) March 21, 2025

The Rangers are so confident in Crochet that they signed him to a six-year, $170 million extension! That’s one way to reward a pitcher whom the Red Sox believe can be their ace for years to come. Heading into his fifth year in the Major Leagues, the 25-year-old is expected to have a standout campaign.

Last season, the left-handed hurler posted a 3.58 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in his first year as a starter. In the two previous seasons, Crochet was a reliable member of the White Sox bullpen.

He notched a career-high ERA of 2.82 in 54 appearances as a reliever in 2021. If Crochet is going to win the Cy Young, he’ll have to set a new career-high in his first year in Boston. From what I’ve witnessed in spring training and early indications of the regular season, Crochet is well-prepared to be in the Cy Young race.

There aren’t any surprises that Crochet’s AL Cy Young 2025 odds continue to drop. That trend should continue through the summer, so he’s one to consider for your Cy Young betting picks!

Cole Ragans (+900)

The Royals should have a true ace on their hands in the rotation! Cole Ragans is on pace for a monster campaign, so does this mean the AL Cy Young 2025 odds are accurate at +900?

Ragans isn’t getting the most respect in the Cy Young betting markets.  At +900, online bookmakers don’t have a ton of confidence in the 27-year-old from Gainesville. Nor did he get any respect at No. 43 in MLB’s Top 100 rankings.

Having said that, Ragans is on track for a huge year for the Royals. In his first full-time role as a starter, the pitcher was on fire with a 3.14 ERA and 1.14 WHIP through 32 matchups.

“I have notebooks from the last four years of every outing I’ve had.”

Cole Ragans talks all the prep that goes into being ready for a start ✍️ pic.twitter.com/t2AxUKzuzB

— Slab Lab (@slablabshow) March 19, 2025

There is a pause for concern with Ragans after spring training and his first outing in the regular season. He was out of sync in the preseason, posting an ERA of 8.20 and a 2.04 WHIP! Ragans also issued a .386 batting average to opponents in a shaky effort.

The Royals’ ace recorded an ERA of 5.40 and a 1.40 WHIP in his first regular season start. He yielded five hits, two walks, and three earned runs versus the Guardians. Nevertheless, Ragans’ performance in spring training and mediocre season debut hasn’t deterred bettors.

His odds to win the NL Cy Young remain the same as in March at +900 odds. With this in mind, there is value to consider with this bet, but he can’t afford to allow a slow start to impact his confidence! I think there is an argument to be made that there is a better option on the board.