MLB Cy Young 2025 Odds for AL and NL: Skenes to Be Crowned?

2025 NL Cy Young Odds

The following NL Cy Young betting odds are courtesy of Bovada:

Pittsburgh Pirates’ starter Paul Skenes (+220) has the shortest odds to win the NL Cy Young in 2025. As the betting favorite, Skenes has a 31.3% implied probability of winning the top pitching award. Skenes’ odds have improved since early March.

He entered the month at +250 to win the Cy Young and has watched his number drop modestly to +220 since then. It’s worth noting that Skenes’ Cy Young odds are the only change in the market this month — everyone else has stood past.

Skenes will participate in his first full season in 2025 and is already a Cy Young favorite! Following the sophomore, Phillies’ hurler Zack Wheeler (+750) and Chris Sale (+850) are the next top contenders. Sale is the defending winner of the award, but he has just a 10.5% implied probability of repeating.

In short, the Pirates’ 22-year-old ace has put a fairly sizable gap between him and the rest of the pitchers in the NL.

AL Cy Young Odds

The following AL Cy Young betting odds are courtesy of Bovada:

There is already big news in the AL Cy Young race before Opening Day! Yankees’ starter Gerrit Cole is absent from the Cy Young odds after it was revealed that he’ll need Tommy John surgery. Cole, who was +1600 to win the Cy Young before the injury, will miss the entire 2025  campaign.

That being said, Tarik Skubal (+350) remains atop the board to win the AL Cy Young. Skubal is favored to repeat as the Cy Young winner in the AL. The 28-year-old Detroit Tiger pulled away from the field without much competition in the final month. Will he face more pushback in 2025? Skubal holds a 22.2% implied chance of repeating as the top pitcher, according to the oddsmakers.

The Red Sox’s Garrett Crochet (+600) has the second-shortest odds to win the 2025 AL Cy Young. Pundits are high on Crochet having a breakout campaign, so we’ll see where this year goes. Kansas City Royals’ starter Cole Ragans (+800) has a reasonable opportunity but is well behind Skubal with an 11.1% chance.

Paul Skenes (+220)

Skenes returns to the mound for the first MLB Opening Day of his career. After starting in the minors a season ago, Skenes made his Major League debut on May 11. After some early struggles, he settled in and proved why he was the top pitching prospect in baseball.

There wasn’t another debut quite as hyped up since Stephen Strasburg in 2010. Skenes delivered by finishing with a 1.96 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and 170 strikeouts through 23 starts.

On August 28, Skenes held an ERA of 2.23 and brought that down to under 2.00 in his final five performances. If Skenes played a full schedule, he would have won the Cy Young.

Paul Skenes, Fastball & Cutter Overlay.

Why that NEW Cutter makes hitting even more unfair. pic.twitter.com/pWUIpOAFe3

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 2, 2025

Skenes has been working on two new pitches in spring training that are sure to only elevate his stock. He can get by just fine with his elite four-seamer, sinker, slider, sweeper, and curveball.

However, Skenes doesn’t think it’s enough, so the 6’7” footer is adding even more to his arsenal: a two-seam fastball and cutter. Hitters don’t need to think about additional pitches to worry about at the plate, but Skenes appears to be bringing it!

Pitchers from losing teams have a tougher time winning the Cy Young, but he is too good and one of the only pitchers that can overcome an unfavorable team record. Skenes must be high on your NL Cy Young picks shortlist!

Zack Wheeler (+750)

Phillies’ ace Wheeler is in search of his first Cy Young after finishing as the runner-up in 2024. He received four first-place and 25 second-place votes in the voting process. It’s the second time in Wheeler’s career that he finished as the runner-up in Cy Young voting.

In 2021, the pitcher suffered a similar fate and ended up second for the Cy Young!

Wheeler has been in awful form in spring training, with an 11.25 ERA and 2.25 WHIP through four innings of work. That said, I wouldn’t allow it to get a bad perception of Wheeler.

Zack Wheeler's 4Ks. pic.twitter.com/Ytits6yge1

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) February 27, 2025

Is this the year that the 34-year-old finally puts it all together and garners enough attention from voters? He certainly had the production on paper last year. Wheeler posted a 2.57 ERA and 0.96 WHIP through 32 matchups.

This was a career-high for Wheeler, but he was unable to break through for the top pitching honor in baseball. I don’t think he can improve enough to beat Skenes in 2025. Wheeler’s NL Cy Young odds at +750 are tempting, but he likely plateaued last season and won’t find the extra gear required.

Chris Sale (+850)

The big-armed lefty returns to the mound seeking back-to-back Cy Young awards. Sale received the ultimate award for the first time in his career in 2024. He recorded a 2.38 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and 225 strikeouts to lock in the Cy Young.

Sale cruised with 26 of 30 first-place votes available. While Wheeler put up a big fight, his four votes were not going to do it. Sale’s impact on the bump was reflected in his WAR number. The 35-year-old veteran ranked third in the Major Leagues amongst pitchers with a 6.2 WAR.

Your National League Pitching Triple Crown winner: Chris Sale 👏 pic.twitter.com/QHWz7CahpD

— MLB (@MLB) October 1, 2024

Improving on that production will be difficult for Sale. If Skenes is anywhere close to his expected form, Sale may even have to be sharper than last year. Like Wheeler, he will likely plateau after reaching the peak in 2024.

That doesn’t mean Sale won’t have an outstanding year for the Braves. However, capturing consecutive Cy Young nods will likely be tough.

Tarik Skubal (+350)

The Tigers were the big surprise of the 2024 MLB season. Following a miserable start to the year, they caught fire in the second half to clinch a spot in the ALDS. Skubal played a critical role in helping spark the Tigers’ improbable run to the postseason.

The 28-year-old Hayward, CA, native went on a tear, with an ERA of 2.39 and 0.92 WHIP. He struck out 228 batters en route to the highest WAR in baseball at 6.3. It’s been a steady ascent for Skubal’s career over the last three years.

In 2022, Skubal booked a 3.52 in his third year in the Major Leagues. He followed up with a 2.80 ERA and then an ERA of 2.39 and 0.92 WHIP in his Cy Young campaign. Will Skubal add even more to his resume this season? He’s off to a sharp start in spring training, as Skubal carries a 2.16 ERA and 0.84 WHIP across 8.1 innings.

Tarik Skubal, ankle-breaking curveball. pic.twitter.com/5m3ZabB63s

— Evan Petzold (@EvanPetzold) March 3, 2025

It’s possible and Skubal has been red-hot in spring training. He hasn’t allowed a run in five innings, so it appears the pitcher is already in top form. That said, it isn’t difficult to win back-to-back Cy Young awards in the AL. Pedro Martinez was the last pitcher to do so 25 years ago in 2000!

Garrett Crochet (+500)

The former White Sox starter aims to make a huge splash in his first year with the Boston Red Sox. The acquisition largely went under the radar compared to other deals this offseason, but Crochet is a big-time addition for the Red Sox. Bettors are paying attention, as his AL Cy Young odds have improved from +600 to +500 in spring training.

He has been sharp in the Grapefruit League, with no runs across 6.1 innings of work. However, Crochet has gotten himself into jams on the bases. He’s conceded a 1.74 WHIP, with six hits and five walks yielded.

Garrett Crochet's stuff looked filthy in his first start in a @RedSox uniform 🔥 #SpringTraining pic.twitter.com/dNQ00X4aGc

— MLB (@MLB) February 23, 2025

Heading into his fifth year in the Major Leagues, the 25-year-old is expected to have a standout campaign. Last season, the left-handed hurler posted a 3.58 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in his first year as a starter. In the two previous seasons, Crochet was a reliable member of the White Sox bullpen.

He notched a career-high ERA of 2.82 in 54 appearances as a reliever in 2021. If Crochet is going to win the Cy Young, he’ll have to set a new career-high in his first year in Boston. Although Crochet should have a strong campaign, I expect him to just miss out on the Cy Young. Skubal and another pitcher should edge on Crochet in the AL Cy Young voting!

Cole Ragans (+900)

The Royals should have a true ace on their hands in the rotation! Cole Ragans is on pace for a monster campaign, so does this mean the AL Cy Young 2025 odds are accurate at +900?

Ragans isn’t getting the most respect in the Cy Young betting markets.  At +800, online bookmakers don’t have a ton of confidence in the 27-year-old from Gainesville. Nor did he get any respect at No. 43 in MLB’s Top 100 rankings.

Having said that, Ragans is on track for a huge year for the Royals. In his first full-time role as a starter, the pitcher was on fire with a 3.14 ERA and 1.14 WHIP through 32 matchups.

Cole Ragans looked stellar in his start today as he struck out 5 in 4.0 IP. His velocity was bumping and his slider readily generated whiffs.

He’s in line for another big season! pic.twitter.com/FVxc62Snd5

— Thomas Nestico (@TJStats) March 11, 2025

Although Ragans’ numbers haven’t looked too hot in spring training, he’s getting himself into top form as the regular season approaches. In his latest start, Ragans was on fire versus the Diamondbacks.

He’s never been a strong pitcher in spring training, so I wouldn’t use the preseason as a barometer for his regular season success. As a result, Ragans’ AL Cy Young odds offer plenty of value at +900 odds!