2025 MLB MVP Odds, Analysis, and Picks: AL and NL

2025 AL MVP Betting Odds

• • Bobby Witt Jr. (+300)
  • Aaron Judge (+330)
  • Gunnar Henderson (+700)
  • Yordan Alvarez (+700)
  • Jose Ramirez (+1300)
  • Corey Seager (+1400)
  • Mike Trout (+1600)
  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+1700)
  • Julio Rodriguez (+1800)
  • Rafael Devers (+2200)

Aaron Judge has won two of the last three AL MVP awards. He took home the award last year, but has been supplanted by a young contender at top baseball betting sites. At +300, shortstop Royals’ Bobby Witt Jr. is the new betting favorite to win AL MVP. With the top odds, Witt Jr. has a 25% implied probability of winning his first league MVP award.

Last month, Judge had top honors with a price of +330. However, the 24-year-old Witt Jr.’s odds have dropped from +360 to +300, while Judge holds at +330. Gunnar Henderson and Yordan Alvarez share the third-shortest AL MVP odds at +700.

2025 NL MVP Betting Odds

• • Shohei Ohtani (+160)
  • Juan Soto (+550)
  • Fernando Tatis Jr. (+750)
  • Mookie Betts (+1200)
  • Bryce Harper (+1400)
  • Kyle Tucker (+1400)
  • Ronald Acuna Jr. (+1600)
  • Francisco Lindor (+1800)
  • Elly De La Cruz (+2200)
  • Freddie Freeman (+2500)
  • Ketel Marte (+2500)

Shohei Ohtani has won back-to-back MVP awards, one in the AL and one in the NL. He also led the Dodgers to an impressive win over the Yankees in the World Series last year. Ohtani is a +160 favorite in the current MLB futures odds to win his third consecutive MVP in 2025.

Juan Soto, who was on the Yankees squad that Ohtani beat last year, jumped back to the NL this offseason and signed with the Mets. Soto is listed at +550 in the early NL MVP odds. Fernando Tatis Jr. rounds out the top three at +750 odds to win his first MVP.

Bobby Witt Jr. (+300)

As the regular season approaches, public sentiment is way up on Witt Jr. at online bookmakers. He’s overtaken Judge for the leading AL MVP odds, so will this translate into winning the award this season? Witt Jr. has been in strong form in spring training. In 33 at-bats, Witt Jr. is hitting .273 with two home runs and four RBIs.

Judge was the unanimous MVP last year, but Bobby Witt Jr. was the unanimous runner-up. He did not win the award but earned all 30 second-place votes. Kansas City’s shortstop broke out last year with 125 total runs, including 32 home runs, on 211 hits. In addition to offense, he’s developing into a spectacular shortstop defensively.

Play No. 50 of 2024: An UNREAL diving stop and throw by Bobby Witt Jr. to close out the game 🤩 pic.twitter.com/Thh7JMSVxA

— MLB (@MLB) December 4, 2024

Witt Jr.’s 2025 AL MVP betting odds imply an improved win probability of 21.74% to 25%, so there is plenty of optimism that his stats will continue to grow in 2025. He will be a key part of the Royals in 2025 as KC attempts to make back-to-back postseasons for the first time in a decade.

To steal the award from Judge, Witt Jr. must build on his breakout season from last year. Taking a step forward, combined with voter fatigue or a down year from Judge, could be enough for Witt Jr. to claim his first MVP award.

Aaron Judge (+330)

Bovada lists Aaron Judge at +330 to win back-to-back MVPs, and his third in the last four years. Judge’s price to win AL MVP hasn’t moved in weeks, though Witt Jr. has since passed him. Currently, at +330, Judge has a 23.3% implied chance of winning.

AARON JUDGE GETS #WORLDSERIES GAME 5 STARTED! pic.twitter.com/HHRJ9Uo4KA

— MLB (@MLB) October 31, 2024

Judge’s MVP seasons have hinged on his home run ability. He racked up 62 homers in his 2022 MVP season and totaled 58 homers last year to win the award.

If Judge can have another 50+ home run season, he should add another MVP award to his trophy case. On the other hand, Judge has never had 40+ home runs in back-to-back seasons. The AL has also not had a back-to-back MVP winner since Miguel Cabrera (2013, 2014).

It will be hard for Judge to repeat, so the odds are simply not high enough to back him.

Shohei Ohtani (+160)

Shohei Ohtani lived up to the hype in his first year with the Dodgers, helping LA dominate the Yankees in the 2024 World Series. Ohtani is the +160 favorite to win his third straight MVP and the fourth of his career.

It would take a significant injury or unforeseen early-season struggles for Ohtani to be replaced as the top betting favorite. He won the MVP as a DH last season! Ohtani became the first full-time DH to ever win the award, and now, he is expected to get back on the mound as a pitcher at some point this season.

FIRST LOOK: Shohei Ohtani is back on the mound throwing his first bullpen of Spring Training. pic.twitter.com/E06ND3O5SJ

— MLB (@MLB) February 15, 2025

While he’s received some work as a pitcher in spring training, the Dodgers recently paused his assignments on the mound to prioritize hitting. It’s a discouraging sign, but he clearly doesn’t need to throw one pitch to win MVP again. Nevertheless, it would help his resume if he regresses in the batter’s box.

As impressive as his first season with the Dodgers was, Ohtani has plenty of room to grow. He did not pitch last year as he was recovering from Tommy John surgery. If Ohtani can join the Dodgers rotation while remaining one of the biggest threats at the plate in MLB, he should cruise to another unanimous MVP.

Juan Soto (+550)

Juan Soto had a short but successful run in the AL. In one year with the Yankees, the star finished third in MVP voting and helped New York win the AL. Soto and company came up short in the World Series, and he joined the rival Mets this offseason.

He’s been on a massive tear in his first spring training with the Mets. Soto is looking to prove something, as he’s taking big rips any chance he gets at the plate. The 26-year-old Dominican Republic native has connected for a .358 batting average, .448 OBP, four home runs, and eight RBIs!

ANOTHER JUAN SOTO SPRING HOMER! pic.twitter.com/vhKmCABwsy

— SNY (@SNYtv) March 14, 2025

The Mets finished second in the NL, losing the NLCS in six games to the Dodgers. If Soto can help the Mets remain title contenders, he will at least earn some MVP votes. Dethroning a healthy Ohtani will require Soto to have the best season of his career, though.

1. 2025 AL MVP Sleepers

• • Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+1700)
  • Brent Rooker (+3500)

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. finished second in MVP voting in 2021, but he has not cracked the top five since. If he can return to his 2021 form, including racking up 100+ hits and 40+ home runs, his 17-1 odds could hold a ton of value.

Also, it’s important to note that Guerrero Jr. is in a huge contract year. He couldn’t come to terms with the Blue Jays in the offseason, so look for him to be motivated to put on a show.

Brent Rooker (+3500) is also an intriguing dark horse option. Rooker had 40 total points from 21 votes despite playing on the Athletics. His biggest hurdle could be overcoming the negative press that is likely to follow the organization again this year.

2. 2025 NL MVP Sleepers

• • Ronald Acuna Jr. (+1600)
  • Paul Skenes (+5500)
  • Willy Adames (+12000)

Bovada has great sleeper options in the 2025 NL MVP betting odds, too. Ronald Acuna Jr., for instance, opened as the favorite last year and is available at 16-1 to win the MVP in 2025. His 2024 season was cut short by an ACL injury, but Acuna won the MVP in 2023 and is a threat to win it again if he is healthy.

Paul Skenes (+5500) and Willy Adames (+12000) are also intriguing bets. Skenes had a break-out rookie year, winning Rookie of the Year and earning one MVP vote.

Adames, on the other hand, finished 10th in MVP voting last year with the Brewers and signed a huge contract to join the Giants this year. Living up to his $182 million contract will be easier said than done, but an MVP-worthy season would help Adames silence a lot of doubters.