Monday Night Football Week 17 Best Bets: Lions vs. 49ers

MNF Football Prediction and Betting Pick: Lions vs. 49ers

The Detroit Lions have their eyes set on the No. 1 seed for the NFC Championship. With a victory over the 49ers, the Lions can inch closer to guaranteeing homefield advantage through the playoffs. Next week, the Lions can clinch the NFC North title against the Minnesota Vikings.

The Lions have fallen victim to the injury bug hard this season. While other contenders, such as the Kansas City Chiefs are in the process of getting healthy, the Lions are reeling with injuries.

That said, this team is so well-coached on both sides of the ball that the Lions can go down the depth chart and get results. The banged-up Lions are coming off a 34-17 victory over the Chicago Bears on the road.

Safety Brian Branch and CB Terrion Arnold made big plays against Bears’ QB Caleb Williams and the offense. If Arnold, Branch, and LB Jack Campbell can stay on the field, defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn will draw something up to slow down the 49ers.

The 49ers have regressed offensively without a healthy RB Christian McCaffrey in the mix. They are 16th in the NFL, with an average of 22.1 points scored per game.

Finishing drives has proven to be an issue, as just 51.79% of red zone trips have resulted in a touchdown. The defense has been in fine shape, but they are dealing with a high-powered Lions’ offense that isn’t injured enough to be hampered.

Lions’ QB Jared Goff is an outsider for NFL MVP, but he has to be behind Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen in the conversation. Goff has passed for 17 touchdowns and one interception over the last seven weeks! With second-year WR Jameson Williams breaking out, Goff has an array of weapons in an explosive offense.

Matched with Pro Bowl WR Amon-Ra St. Brown and RB Jahmyr Gibbs, injuries aren’t so much of a concern on the offensive side of the ball. The offensive line has kept Goff up-right with 1.9 sacks yielded per game — tied for the seventh-best mark.

Although I’m concerned with the Lions winning shootouts against elite offenses, the 49ers don’t have the horses to keep up in this one. The Lions are first in the NFL, averaging 32.9 points, and second with 408.6 yards per game!

We’re getting a short number due to the injury concerns and this game being largely meaningless for Detroit, but the 49ers have checked out and aren’t a threat to exploit the Lions’ holes. Head coach Dan Campbell won’t allow this team slump on Monday night. There is betting value on the Lions at -3, so consider laying the points!

Total Points in Game: 51-60 (+230)

• 41-50 Points: +210
• 51-60: +230
• 31-40: +425
• 61-70: +450
• 71+: +800
• 21-30: +1200
• 0-20: +5000

Points shouldn’t be tough to come by on Monday Night Football this week. Goff and the Lions will come out firing looking to give the injured defense some support. The Lions have the personnel to pull off this game plan, so expect Goff to get to work right away on their first possession.

The injuries turn the Lions into a good defense to average. As I said, the Lions still have defensive players remaining to play a respectable game under Glenn’s scheme. However, the offense will overwhelmingly be the catalyst through January. In short, I have the Lions down for 30 points at Levi’s Stadium in the Bay Area.

The 49ers will attempt to keep up, but should come up shy of Goff and Co. Look for San Francisco to bank 24 points, so a 30-24 final, and 51-60 points is the most likely outcome for your Week 17 MNF props!

Race to 10 Points: Detroit Lions (-152)

• Detroit Lions (-152)
• San Francisco 49ers (+115)
• Neither (+10000)

To reiterate, I expect the Lions to get off to a fast start with Goff. The Lions’ coaching staff won’t be hesitant to attempt to pull ahead early to afford their defense a cushion. The Lions lead the league, with an average of 18.7 points scored per first half.

They are accustomed to putting points on the board and getting out to comfortable leads early. Conversely, the 49ers are 17th in the NFL, with 11.5 points scored per game in the first half. Look for San Francisco to concede a couple of quick touchdowns to get behind at home.

With this in mind, the Lions should win the race to 10 points! Consider adding this wager to your best MNF prop bets this week.

Anytime Touchdown: (DET) Sam LaPorta (+200)

Lions’ sophomore TE Sam LaPorta has been a valuable weapon for the Lions, especially in the red zone when Goff is looking for a reliable option. LaPorta has caught 68 receptions for 599 yards and six touchdowns. 

He has reeled in three of his touchdowns over the last four games. During that stretch, LaPorta has been targeted 30 times, plenty of which have been in the end zone. LaPorta is often the first read for Goff in the red zone, so he has an enchanted chance to score. 

For your Week 17 MNF player prop bets, LaPorta’s anytime touchdown wager at +200 is a top-flight option against the 49ers!

Total Receiving Yards: Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) Over 27.5 (-115)

• Over 27.5 Yards (-115)
• Under 27.5 Yards (-115)

Lions’ RB Jahmyr Gibbs has developed into the centerpiece of the offense in Detroit. He runs the ball, blocks, and is used as a pass catcher out of the backfield. Gibbs can even be spread out in a receiver set for the Lions. In short, Gibbs’ receiving prop is roughly five or six years too low.

Gibbs has collected 43 receptions, 440 yards, and three touchdowns in the passing game. Through the last three weeks, Gibbs was used frequently as a receiver. He hauled in 15 receptions for 158 yards — eclipsing 30 yards in each matchup. 

The former Alabama running back’s receiving prop to go over 27.5 is a solid option for your MNF player prop bets!

Longest Reception: Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) Over 21.5

• Over 21.5 Yards (-120)
• Under 21.5 Yards (-110)

As I mentioned, the Lions will come out of the gate attacking the 49ers’ defense looking to land an early blow. WR Amon-Ra St. Brown is his top receiving target, and often looks to the USC product downfield.

It doesn’t matter where St. Brown is on the field, as he is terrific across the middle on short routes or stretching the secondary. St. Brown is a versatile weapon that the Lions couldn’t afford to lose to an injury. He enters this week with 101 receptions, 1,126 yards, and 11 touchdowns.

The 25-year-old California native has a season-long reception of 66 yards. He has surpassed the 21-yard threshold in three of his previous four games. St. Brown has also gone beyond this mark in four of the last five matchups.

With the Lions looking to send a message early, expect St. Brown to see plenty of targets downfield. St. Brown’s longest reception prop of over 21.5 yards is worth considering for your MNF player props this week!

• LaPorta: Anytime TD
• Gibbs: Over 27.5 Receiving Yards
• St. Brown: Over 21.5 Longest Reception