NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight: Best First Basket Scorer Bets

Damian Lillard +600 (Magic vs. Bucks)

The Milwaukee Bucks are back out on the floor following a 130-115 win over the Sacramento Kings last night. For this back-to-back, the Bucks welcome the Magic to Milwaukee for a dance at the Fiserv Forum. The Bucks are in contention to win another jump ball in this matchup.

They’ve won 63.2% of tip-offs against opponents this season. While this isn’t the best mark in the league, they hold a sizable advantage over the Magic in jump balls. Note that Orlando has won just 39% of jump balls in 2024-25. We can assume that the Bucks will grab control of the opening possession.

Giannis Antetokounmpo is the most logical player to open the scoring with a bucket. However, at +350, there isn’t much betting value in this spot. Instead, Damian Lillard is a top option for your NBA first scorer bets at +600! That’s quite the bargain on an aggressive player like Dame.

FOUR-POINT PLAY.

10 early points for Lillard. pic.twitter.com/3cBa662NZh

— Milwaukee Bucks (@Bucks) January 15, 2025

Lillard ranks 24th in the NBA, with 17.03 field goal attempts per game. He has notched 24.8 points per game on 44.3% shooting from the field. There is a decent chance of Lillard scoring the first points, so at +600, the bet is worth a look tonight!

Tyler Herro +600 (Heat vs. Lakers)

The Heat and Lakers are scheduled to settle the score in Los Angeles on Wednesday night. I am circling the Heat for my NBA first basket bets today as well.

Note that the Heat are having a solid campaign with a 68.4% success rate in jump balls. That’s considerably stronger than the Lakers, who have won 54.1% of tip-offs heading into tonight. Also, guard Tyler Herro is a nice value play to score the first points at +600 odds.

Tyler Herro last three games:

32 PTS | 11 REB | 7 AST
32 PTS | 5 REB | 5 AST
23 PTS | 7 REB | 5 AST

On a tear. pic.twitter.com/OfOP2J27Ih

— StatMuse (@statmuse) January 14, 2025

Herro has been shooting from just about everywhere on the floor recently. He has made 42 field goal attempts over the last two games alone! This leads the Heat, and Herro is also 21st in the league with 17.58 attempts per contest.

This is tremendous value on Herro to score the first basket at +600, so consider him for your NBA first scorer bets tonight!

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.