NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight: Best First Basket Scorer Bets

Giannis Antetokounmpo +380 (Bulls vs. Bucks)

The Bucks welcome the Bulls to Fiserv Forum for what should be a high-scoring contest in Milwaukee. Giannis Antetokounmpo’s squad is looking to build some momentum after edging out the Rockets by a point.

This team has plenty of things to address, but they are winning a lot of jump balls at least! Brock Lopez is one of the best jump ball players in the NBA today. He’s won 12 tip-offs to put him in a tie for the third-most in the league.

C O M P E T E. 👷🏾‍♂️ pic.twitter.com/Sl3MoQMqRN

— Giannis Antetokounmpo (@Giannis_An34) November 15, 2024

Lopez has also won 70.59% of jump balls for one of the highest marks in the league. In other words, the Bucks are more likely than the Bulls to control the opening possession. From that point, Antetokounmpo is the most likely to score the first points in this ball game.

He leads the Bucks in field goal attempts per game and is third overall in the NBA! The “Greek Freak” is averaging 31.4 points on 60.1% shooting this season. With his 21.23 attempts per game, only Luka Dončić and LaMelo Ball are shooting the ball more than Giannis.

For your best NBA first basket bets, Antetokounmpo is worth a serious look tonight!

Donovan Mitchell +550 (Pelicans vs. Cavaliers)

The Cavaliers are on a back-to-back after suffering their first loss of the season last night. They came up short in a 120-117 final against the Celtics at TD Garden.

Back on the floor immediately, the Cavaliers have a good opportunity to bounce back tonight. If anything, they should win the opening tip-off and have a strong chance of collecting the first points of the matchup.

DONOVAN. MITCHELL. FOR. THREE.@spidadmitchell | #LetEmKnow pic.twitter.com/0bz1zq0t4E

— Cleveland Cavaliers (@cavs) November 20, 2024

Jarrett Allen is one of the jump ball kings of the NBA. He finished in a tie for the most jump balls won last season and ranks among the best in 2024-25, too. Allen is first in the NBA with 15 and a 78.95% win percentage.

This improves the odds of guard Donovan Mitchell scoring the first basket tonight. Mitchell is first on the Cavaliers with 18.57 shots per game. The 28-year-old native of New York is also 14th overall in the NBA.

He’s coming off two huge performances, with 37 points versus the Bulls and 35 last night against the Celtics. Mitchell’s NBA first basket bet is worth a play at +550!

Tyus Jones +950 (Knicks vs. Suns)

The Suns are another team excelling on jump balls this season. Jusuf Nurkic is second in the NBA in jump balls won. Nurkic has come up victorious in 13 jump balls for an 81.25% success rate!

If the Suns need to win a tip-off, they have a secret weapon in Nurkic. The odds suggest that guard Tyus Jones doesn’t have a good chance of scoring the first points. However, at +950, I strongly recommend considering him at this price.

Jones has been coming on of late and becoming more involved in the offense. The 28-year-old point guard is taking advantage of Kevin Durant’s absence and playing hard. He is coming off a solid outing, with 18 points on 7-of-17 shooting against the Orlando Magic.

Tyus Jones tonight:

18 PTS
2 REB
8 AST (0 TOV)
4 3P pic.twitter.com/TcIsolUSy9

— Booker Muse (@DevinBookerMuse) November 19, 2024

As Jones becomes more aggressive, there is going to be increasing value on his NBA first basket prop bets. In this case, at +950, Jones is a solid play on Wednesday night!

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.