NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight: Best First Basket Scorer Bets

Luka Doncic +450 (Lakers vs. Nets)

The Lakers and Nets clash to get the week started at the Barclays Center tonight. For our NBA first basket bets, the Lakers are likely scoring the first basket in this one.

They hold a sizable advantage in jump balls, which should give them the edge for the opening possession. Note that the Lakers have won 61.3% of tip-offs this season. While Anthony Davis was taking the jump balls previously and having a lot of success, Jaxson Hayes has followed up in similar form.

The Lakers have collected 80% of jump balls over their previous five games. Meanwhile, the Nets won just 40% through that same stretch. Overall, they’ve won only 36.5% of jump balls in 2024-25.

LeBron James is expected to be absent for the next few weeks, so the offense load falls squarely on Luka Doncic. The Slovenian superstar is most likely to take the first shot in this matchup. He is getting warmed up in the Lakers’ offense.

Luka with the moonshot in OT! pic.twitter.com/MlylTwP501

— Los Angeles Lakers (@Lakers) March 7, 2025

Luka has taken 45 field goal attempts over the last two games. Doncic scored 30+ points in the Lakers’ previous three matchups and should have a big effort without James in the lineup. In short, Doncic is a top bet for your NBA first scorer bets today!

Desmond Bane +450 (Grizzlies vs. Mavericks)

The Mavericks are at home hosting the Grizzlies at the American Airlines Center on Monday. The organization is in disarray after trading Doncic away to the Lakers.

The least of their issues is yielding the first points tonight, but it seems that’s a likely scenario. With 7’4” Zach Edey at center court, the Grizzlies are one of the best jump ball teams in the league. Memphis has won 73.4% of jump balls, which is a considerable edge over the Suns, who have won only 56.3%.

Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. are both injured at the moment, which removes two of the Grizzlies’ top scorers. Instead, Desmond Bane is expected to take the spotlight for the Grizzlies’ offense in this one.

Remember Desmond Bane’s slow start to this season?

With his play in recent months, it’s been easy to forget

Over the last 2 months (23 GP), he’s averaging 21.1 points, 6.5 rebounds, 5.8 assists, and 1.2 steals on 51/41/92 shooting pic.twitter.com/MAXJiB6eif

— Point Made Basketball (@pointmadebball) March 10, 2025

Bane also leads the Grizzlies in first field goals this season. Even with a healthy lineup, Bane has scored the most first points for Memphis. With this in mind, Bane at +450 to score the opening points is a strong bet worth considering!

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.