NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight: Best First Basket Scorer Bets

Donovan Mitchell +500 (Bucks vs. Cavaliers)

The Bucks and Cavaliers square off in an Eastern Conference showdown in downtown Cleveland tonight. These are two of the better jump ball teams in the NBA, so they are used to having the first possession of the game.

However, the Cavaliers excel above the rest of the league in tip-offs. They have won over 80% of jump balls, which is tops in the league. As long as center Jarrett Allen is healthy, the Cavaliers will continue to have the vast majority of the opening possessions.

The Bucks have won a respectable amount of jump balls at roughly 62%. Brook Lopez is the man behind their success, but he likely fails to oust Allen in the opening jump ball. Afterward, look for Donovan Mitchell to have an excellent opportunity to score the first points tonight.

OH. MY. MITCHELL. #LetEmKnow pic.twitter.com/UwB4e56cQQ

— Cleveland Cavaliers (@cavs) November 16, 2024

Mitchell leads the Cavaliers and is 15th in the NBA with 18.62 shot attempts per game. Additionally, Mitchell has been efficient, scoring an average of 23.3 points per game on 44.8% field goal percentage. With everything considered, at +500, Mitchell is worth a look for one of your NBA first basket bet tonight!

Tyler Herro +650 (Thunder vs. Heat)

The Thunder bounced back from the NBA Cup Championship loss in fine form last night. They dispatched the Magic in a 105-99 final in Orlando. The Thunder head further south to Miami for a Friday night matchup versus the Heat!

Oklahoma City might be first in the Western Conference, but it isn’t because of their jump-ball success. The Thunder are struggling to win jump balls at center court this season. They’ve won a mediocre number of jump balls with a win rate of just 44% in 2024-245.

Conversely, the Heat are trending above 60%, so I give the home team an advantage when it comes to the first possession. Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, and Tyler Herro are the most likely first scorers in Miami this evening. For the betting value, Herro is a top wager at +650!

Tyler Herro hit SEVEN STRAIGHT THREES in the 3Q 💦

Scored 21 PTS in 5:28 🤯 pic.twitter.com/G5z6N7iBgs

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) December 5, 2024

Herro leads the Heat with 17.58 shot attempts per game. Adebayo is second at 13.92, so there is a notable discrepancy. The 24-year-old guard took 25 field goal attempts in his latest outing. The Heat have trusted Herro with the ball in his hands, and he’s answered the call with 24.1 points per game on 47.1% shooting!

This appears like a good spot to back Herro for your NBA first basket bets!

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.