NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight: Best First Basket Scorer Bets

Donovan Mitchell +500 (Knicks vs. Cavaliers)

The Cavaliers host the Knicks in their second game back from the All-Star break at the Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse. That means the best jump ball team in the business is back on the floor.

Cleveland is tops in the NBA with a success rate of 85.2% in jump balls. Jarrett Allen has been a beast in tip-offs at center court. That should continue again this evening.

In their last ten games, the Cavaliers have won 90% of jump balls and 100% in the last five matchups! This should be an easy win for Allen against a Knicks squad winning just 46.3% of jump balls in 2024-25.

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— NBA (@NBA) February 21, 2025

Donovan Mitchell leads the Cavaliers in opening shots per game. Additionally, he’s 13th overall in the league, with 18.59 field goal attempts per contest. Mitchell is scoring 24 points per game on 45.2% shooting and having a fantastic campaign.

The way I see it, Mitchell is a great option for your NBA first scorer bets today!

Bam Adebayo +600 (Heat vs. Raptors)

The Miami Heat are another team with a favorable matchup at center court tonight. Miami has won 64.2% of jump balls this season. They have a considerable advantage over the Raptors, who are winning at just a 47.3% clip.

Over their last five games, the Raptors have won only 20% of jump balls, while the Heat collected 60% of tip-offs. I have high confidence in the Heat taking the first crack at the hoop in this matchup on Friday night.

Bam Adebayo should win the jump ball and have a great opportunity to score the first points. Adebayo leads the Heat in first field goals and attempts per game this season.

They like to open games by feeding the ball to Adebayo, so he’s scoring plenty of opening baskets. With this in mind, I suggest Adebayo to score the first points at +600.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend on only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, Attempted, and Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the biggest picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.