The NBA MVP odds for the 2024-25 season have the usual suspects at the top of the list. Denver’s Nikola Jokić has won the award in three of the last four years. However, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has caught the “Joker” at NBA betting sites and is the favorite to win his first MVP!
I’ll provide my analysis of the NBA odds for MVP, focused on the two options left. Read until the end for my NBA MVP prediction and betting pick!
2025 NBA MVP Odds
| PLAYER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC) | -5000 |
| Nikola Jokić (DEN) | +1300 |
NBA MVP odds have all but given the award to Oklahoma City’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (-5000) at NBA betting sites! The Thunder star has an implied win chance of 98% to take home his first MVP on April 9, an increase from 85.7% on March 14!
OKC have clinched the top seed in the Western Conference with eight games to go, and they also have a two-game lead over Cleveland for the top overall seed in the league!
Denver’s Nikola Jokić (+1300) is doing his best to try to make this a competition and probably would’ve been in a much stronger position if it wasn’t for voter fatigue.
The three-time MVP has an implied win probability of 7.1%, up slightly from 6.7% on March 31. However, the Nuggets are 18 games behind Oklahoma City in the Northwest. They sit fifth in the West, but are in a battle with multiple other teams. Then on April 8, the Nuggets fired Michael Malone and Calvin Booth, their head coach and general manager, respectively.
The NBA odds for MVP you see above come from Bovada, and the sportsbook offers more players. You can find this market by heading to Sports > Basketball > NBA Awards & League Leaders > Regular Season MVP.
The NBA MVP Favorite for 2025
Two players have risen to the top of the NBA MVP odds. One of them has accounted for three MVP wins, while the other finished second last season. The roles might be reversed this year, if we trust the oddsmakers who expect a win for SGA.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (-5000)
The Thunder lost back-to-back games recently for the first time since November, and only the second time all season! They lost to Houston and the Los Angeles Lakers, but “SGA” wasn’t going to let the skid get to three games. He had 42 points, six rebounds, and six assists in a 16-point win in a rematch with the Lakers on April 8.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander stamping a brilliant MVP season with a 42 point performance vs the Lakers in the OKC home finale should be a bigger talking point today.pic.twitter.com/Rsm3Zlcfhh
— Brandon Rahbar (@BrandonRahbar) April 9, 2025
While voter fatigue will play a role in this year’s MVP race, that shouldn’t discount what Gilgeous-Alexander has done. He leads the league in scoring with 32.7 points. SGA has shot 51.9% from the field, which is absurd for a guard, including 37.5% from beyond the arc.
Furthermore, he also has hit 89.8% from his free throws. “SGA” also averages 6.4 assists, 5.0 rebounds, and 1.7 steals, and is a cog in the wheel of the best defense in the NBA. Finally, for as much as he has the ball in his hands, Gilgeous-Alexander averages just 2.4 turnovers per game.
He is a deserving player, although I think the price is far too high for the Canadian. There are still some voters that have said they don’t know who they’re going to go for. But if you factor in team success (and I do, although I don’t have a vote), Gilgeous-Alexander is a favorite to win this award.
The Main Competition for the NBA MVP Award
Nikola Jokić, Denver (+1300)
It’s a massive credit to the season Jokic is having, that this is even still a race. He’s third in scoring at 30.0 points, tied for second in rebounds with 12.8, second in assists with 10.2, and second in steals with 1.8. He’s also shooting 57.7% from the field, including 41.5% from three-point land, and 80.3% from the charity stripe.
After coming close the last two seasons, “Joker” will likely finish the season averaging a triple-double.
This past week, Nikola Jokic averaged 45.0 PPG, 12.3 RPG, 10.7 APG.
The Denver Nuggets lost all 3 of those games.
Fire the entire front office. Calvin Booth is a terrible GM. pic.twitter.com/P5d5AQ3Yv6
— Scott Reichel (@ReichelRadio) April 7, 2025
The Nuggets still have a decent record by their standards, but their recent slump has culminated in the firing of Malone and Booth. The defense is a disaster, and Jokic, despite his steals numbers, he’s never been a great defender.
How much of the Nuggets’ issues are Jokic’s fault is debatable. But even if he’s not a good defender, Jokic is the focal point of an offense that has missed Jamal Murray for much of the season, and Michael Porter Jr. has been inconsistent, as he has been his entire career. The Nuggets are still fourth in the league in offensive rating, thanks to the brilliance of Jokic.
The abysmal state of the Nuggets recently and voter fatigue are the most likely reasons why a historically great season might not be enough for Jokic to win.
NBA MVP Prediction and Betting Pick for 2025
Both of these players have been head and shoulders above the rest of the NBA this season. Gilgeous-Alexander will be up for this award many more times, and is just reaching the peak of his powers now. Meanwhile, Jokic has been the best player in the league for the last 4–5 years, and this might be his best season yet.
But as I said, team success and voter fatigue will be the biggest factors for this award. I love Jokic, and I, personally, think he is the MVP because he’s carrying a mediocre team. But I don’t think the voters will see it that way, just because of how good Oklahoma City is. That’s not a knock on Gilgeous-Alexander, as he has been the best player on this team and is their engine.
For that reason, I’m predicting Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in my NBA MVP pick, but I wouldn’t bet on it at -5000. There is simply no value in it.
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