The NBA MVP odds for the 2024-25 season have the usual suspects at the top of the list. Denver’s Nikola Jokić has won the award in three of the last four years. Can anyone stop “Joker” from going four MVPs in five years?
I’ll provide my analysis of the NBA odds for MVP, including the top five favorites and a few sleeper candidates. Read until the end for my NBA MVP prediction and betting pick!
If you want the short version, check out this video:
2024-25 NBA MVP Odds
PLAYER | ODDS |
---|---|
Luka DonÄiÄ | +370 |
Nikola JokiÄ | +400 |
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | +550 |
Giannis Antetokounmpo | +650 |
Joel Embiid | +750 |
Victor Wembanyama | +1000 |
Anthony Edwards | +1200 |
Jalen Brunson | +1800 |
Jayson Tatum | +2000 |
Ja Morant | +2500 |
Last year’s winner, Nikola Jokic and his two closest rivals, Luka Doncic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, are once again leading the way, followed by Giannis Antetokounmpo, and the 2023 winner, Joel Embiid. It’s interesting that a second-year player like Victor Wembanyama is just behind them!
The NBA odds for MVP you see above come from Bovada, and the sportsbook offers more players. You can find this market by heading to Sports > Basketball > NBA Awards & League Leaders > Regular Season MVP.
Top NBA MVP Favorites for 2024-25
Five players have risen to the top of the NBA MVP odds. Three of them have accounted for the last six MVP winners, while the other two finished in the top three of the voting last season.
Luka Dončić, Dallas (+370)
Luka Dončić led the regular season in scoring with 33.9 points, the highest since James Harden put up 34.3 points for Houston in 2019-20.
Doncic was also second in the league in assists with 9.8, and pulled down 9.2 rebounds for good measure. He shot a career-high 38.2% from three-point land (on a career-high 10.6 attempts per game), and his 78.6% from the free-throw line was also a career-best. Doncic also set the game high for the season with 73 points against Atlanta in January.
Doncic then led the Mavericks to the NBA Finals, where they were outmatched and lost in five games to Boston. The surrounding cast around Doncic is better than ever.
Doncic and Kyrie Irving figured out how to play together, while rookie Dereck Lively was a revelation, feeding off Doncic’s lobs in the pick-and-roll. P.J. Washington was a great midseason pickup, as was Daniel Gafford.
There are high hopes for Dallas at the top NBA betting sites, where Bovada has them at +1200 to win the title. Doncic is the straw that stirs the drink and is rested as Slovenia missed out on the Olympics. If he enters the season in decent shape, the NBA is in for a long season. Doncic is a deserving favorite in the 2024-25 NBA MVP odds.
Nikola Jokić, Denver (+400)
Nikola Jokić is coming off his third MVP in four seasons as the “Joker” was fourth in the NBA in rebounds with 12.4, and third in assists with 9.0, while adding 26.4 points per game. The Nuggets put up a good fight to defend their NBA title, but they lost in seven games to Minnesota in the second round.
Jokic then led Serbia to a bronze medal over Germany at the Olympics, and only a cold-shooting fourth quarter (and some fantastic defense) stopped them from upsetting the eventual gold medalists, the United States. However, Jokic and his teammates definitely celebrated their bronze medals.
Ending the boys trip with an Olympic Bronze Medal >
Nikola Jokic and Team Serbia turned up before receiving the third medal in program history 🔥 pic.twitter.com/tDGWbuOQsP
— All the Smoke Productions (@allthesmokeprod) August 14, 2024
The Nuggets as a team need to answer some questions. Can Jamal Murray get back to his old form after struggling mightily for Canada at the Olympics? Can Michael Porter Jr. take a step forward? Who will replace Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, who left for Orlando? Team success is a big part of selecting the league’s MVP.
Jokic will still be their fulcrum, throwing pinpoint passes from the high post and putting his teammates in the best positions to be successful. He’ll be a popular pick for those who are NBA betting online, but voter fatigue might be an issue after Jokic won three of the last four MVPs.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City (+550)
While Canada underwhelmed at the Olympics, it certainly wasn’t Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s fault. The Oklahoma City star averaged 21.0 points in France as Canada lost to the hosts in the quarterfinals.
It continued a fantastic run for Gilgeous-Alexander, who was third in the NBA with 30.1 points a game. He also added 6.2 assists and 5.5 rebounds. SGA also shot 53.5% from the field, and it seemed like he could always get a good shot.
The Thunder have the best odds in the West to win the NBA title, trailing only Boston overall. Gilgeous-Alexander also has a good, young cast around him with Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren and fellow Canadian Lu Dort.
The organization was also busy in the offseason, trading Josh Giddey to Chicago for Alex Caruso, and signing center Isaiah Hartenstein to a big-money deal.
Oklahoma City shored up its size and defense with those two deals, which should give Gilgeous-Alexander, who finished second to Jokic in MVP voting, even more freedom to lead the Thunder offense.
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee (+650)
I feel we take Giannis Antetokounmpo, a two-time MVP for granted. Last season was wildly tumultuous for the team. Coach Adrian Griffin was fired after a 30-13 start and replaced with Doc Rivers, and Damian Lillard struggled to fit in.
Even in such a chaotic environment, Antetokounmpo was Milwaukee’s constant. Giannis was second in the league with 30.4 points per game, and added 11.5 rebounds and 6.5 assists. He also scored a career-high 64 points against Indiana in December 2023.
You’re also getting some great value on Antetokounmpo’s MVP odds in the NBA. In his last six seasons, Antetokounmpo has finished 1-1-4-3-3-4 in the MVP voting. He’s always around the top of the list, and you can pencil him in for another 31-11-6 season.
Let’s not forget that Giannis is arguably one of the best two-way players in the league.
Joel Embiid, Philadelphia (+750)
Joel Embiid is back in Philadelphia, where he’ll be the focal point of the offense. That was different from his experience in France, where he looked out of sorts on Team USA as “just” one part of a team. However, Embiid was a major part of their comeback against Jokic and Serbia, scoring 19 points for his best game.
In the NBA, Embiid was coming off an MVP season and headed towards another duel with Jokic before missing two months due to a knee injury.
The big man averaged 34.7 points per game, along with 11.0 rebounds and 5.6 assists, but he only played in 39 games, meaning he wasn’t eligible for any awards. The NBA requires players to take part in 65 games to keep their eligibility.
If he can stay healthy, Embiid is a legitimate MVP candidate. However, this is a major if. He missed the first two years of his career due to a foot injury. Embiid played 31 games in his first full season, but he has played more than 51 games just four times in his career.
The 76ers have Tyrese Maxey, and now Paul George, to help out when Embiid is out. But his injury history drops the superstar’s NBA MVP betting odds. Getting to 65+ games will be the biggest challenge for Embiid.
NBA MVP Sleepers
The top five have separated themselves from the pack. However, there is plenty of talent in the NBA, and you can find some value down the board for your NBA MVP betting pick.
I’m avoiding Victor Wembanyama’s NBA odds for MVP, for now, simply because I don’t think San Antonio is good enough as a team. However, there isn’t a player I’m more excited to watch more than “Wemby” this season. The Spurs are just one year away from being good enough to earn him some votes.
That’s why you should focus on other sleepers instead.
Anthony Edwards, Minnesota (+1200
Anthony Edwards is poised to be the next face of the league. He was outstanding in his fourth season, posting 25.9 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 5.1 assists. The star really took off in the playoffs, leading the Timberwolves to not only their first series win since 2004, but Minnesota went all the way to the Western conference finals, losing to Dallas.
These NBA odds for MVP are for the regular season, and the Timberwolves might have to finish top two in the West for “Ant” to have a chance at the award. However, Edwards was on the Olympic team and got a chance to see some of his idols, including Kevin Durant, go to work.
If he finds another great next season, Edwards could pull this off.
Ja Morant, Memphis (+2500)
There might not be a more polarizing star in the league than Ja Morant, who was on his way to superstar status two years ago.
However, the Memphis Grizzlies’ guard has had several off-court controversies, and in May 2023, Morant was suspended by the team for flashing a gun on his friend’s Instagram Live. He was then suspended by the league for 25 games and returned in December 2023. Then Morant missed the rest of the year with a shoulder injury.
Morant averaged 25.1 points, 8.1 assists, and 5.6 rebounds in nine games last season. He put up 26.2 points, 8.1 assists, and 5.9 boards in 61 games in 2022-23. There is still plenty of talent on the Grizzlies. If Morant has his head on straight, stays out of trouble, and guides Memphis to a top-two seed, he’ll get some MVP votes.
NBA MVP Prediction and Pick for 2024-25
My MVP predictions for the NBA are torn between Doncic, Antetokounmpo, and Gilgeous-Alexander. I don’t think Embiid will get to 65 games, and there may be “voter fatigue” for Jokic. That leaves the top three, and all of them are great choices.
I’m going with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander as he offers excellent betting value in his NBA MVP betting odds and plays for a very strong team, which should always be a part of your NBA betting strategy for this award. SGA should be top three in the league in scoring and many believe he should’ve won last year, so he’s a strong MVP candidate.
If Oklahoma City wins the top seed in a stacked Western Conference, voters will factor that in. Let’s place a bet on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander while his value is the best it will be all season.