2025 NBA Playoffs First Round Predictions and Odds

Los Angeles Clippers vs. Denver Nuggets Series Odds and Prediction

I expect the public to be behind the Denver Nuggets (50-32) at plus odds to beat the Los Angeles Clippers (50-32) in this series. Nikola Jokic at +115 in the first round? That’s what plenty of bettors are asking themselves right now.

However, I don’t think it’s that complicated: the oddsmakers have the first round odds right for this matchup! The Clippers are favored for good reasons. They are in red-hot form entering the playoffs on an eight-game winning streak and 9-1 in their previous ten games.

Note that the Clippers are fourth in the NBA, with an average of 108.2 points allowed per game. With Kawhi Leonard on the floor, the Clippers are a different squad, especially on the defensive side. The Nuggets are 5-5 in their last ten games and have looked fatigued at times this season.

🤩 HARDEN & KAWHI LEAD THE WAY FOR LA🤩

Harden: 39 PTS | 10 AST | 7 REB | 2 STL | 2 BLK | 5 3PM
Kawhi: 33 PTS | 6 REB | 7 AST | 3 STL | 4 3PM

The @LAClippers clinch West #5 in an EPIC battle! pic.twitter.com/iTGCkWqHR2

— NBA (@NBA) April 13, 2025

They’ve lost most of their depth over the last two years, so even more heavily dependent on Jokic than ever before. If you add the chaos brought by Mike Malone’s firing, it’s hard to trust this Denver team.

Look for the Clippers to wear the Nuggets out with their defense and advance to the next round!

Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Los Angeles Lakers Series Odds and Prediction

In the most highly anticipated matchup of the playoffs, the Minnesota Timberwolves (49-33) and Los Angeles Lakers (50-32) square off in what should be a thrilling series.

It’s the first playoff series with Luka Doncic as a Laker, and I expect to see him put on a show. He’s averaged 28.2 points per game on 43.8% shooting from the field.

I expect we’re going to see a killer instinct from Doncic in the playoffs. The Timberwolves have one of the better defenses in the league, but they will struggle against the Slovenian superstar.

Doncic’s recent performance against his old team should only serve as motivation to play lights out in the playoffs. He went for 45 points, eight rebounds, and six assists in an insane effort three games ago.

ALL THE FEELS FOR LUKA'S RETURN TO DALLAS ❤️

The Mavs honored Luka with a tribute video before he took the court with the Lakers 👏 pic.twitter.com/462QhwjDRC

— ESPN (@espn) April 9, 2025

Give me the Lakers, as Doncic and LeBron James will be too much to handle in what could be a long series. Motivation should be through the roof. In any case, the Lakers should outlast the Mavericks, so consider them for your 2025 NBA first round predictions!

Detroit Pistons vs. New York Knicks Series Odds and Prediction

The Detroit Pistons (44-38) and New York Knicks (51-31) meet in what oddsmakers perceive as a lopsided series. The Knicks have -380 first round odds to beat the Pistons, which implies a 79.2% chance of winning.

However, I view the Pistons as having a better opportunity than the NBA first round odds suggest! They are back in the playoffs for the first time since 2019. They’ve gone through a rebuilding process since then, and in a position to finally compete.

We have to go back to 2008 for the last time the Pistons won a playoff series. This team doesn’t compare to the Chauncey Billups and Richard Hamilton era Pistons, but they are pesky and don’t give up. That’s especially true against this Knicks squad.

Detroit won three consecutive regular season matchups against the Knicks! Their most recent victory came on April 10 in a 115-106 final score. Cade Cunningham poured in 36 points, and I believe he can be the difference in the playoffs as well.

Cade Cunningham vs Jalen Brunson head to head this season. pic.twitter.com/88FrlNZ3p7

— Pistons Talk (@Pistons__Talk) April 16, 2025

Statistically, the Pistons aren’t that far from the Knicks. They posted 115.5 points per game, while the Knicks secured 115.8 points per contest this season. Additionally, the Pistons conceded 113.6 points, while the Knicks yielded 111.7 a game.

This series is shaping up to be much closer than many people believe, so all the value is on the Pistons at +290!

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Indiana Pacers Series Odds and Prediction

The Milwaukee Bucks (48-34) and Indiana Pacers (50-32) clash in a familiar battle between Eastern Conference foes! Last season, the Pacers ousted the Bucks in six games.

Are we going to see a similar result in 2025? Indiana are the favorites at -200, which translates to a 66.7% implied probability. That sounds about right for this Pacers squad who has plenty of depth and the starting five is well-balanced.

Tyrese Haliburton is really good at basketball 🔥

he has the most games (14) with 20+ points, 10+ assists and 0 turnovers since the league started tracking in the 1977-78 season. pic.twitter.com/CAa42xZNh6

— Indiana Pacers (@Pacers) April 16, 2025

The Pacers don’t depend too heavily on one player on the floor. On any given night, Pascal Siakam, Tyrese Haliburton, Aaron Nesmith, or Myles Turner could have a big game. Meanwhile, I can’t say the same for the Bucks, who will be without Damian Lillard to start this series.

Lillard is dealing with a blood clot, so there is no confirmation on when he will return. That’s not great news for a Bucks squad that needs to start fast. Giannis Antetokounmpo is the best player in this series, but the Pacers are the better overall team with more depth.

Despite Antetokounmpo playing incredible basketball recently, I foresee the Pacers taking this one. In short, I’m on the Pacers to beat the Bucks for a second consecutive year!

Orlando Magic vs. Boston Celtics Series Odds and Prediction

The Orlando Magic (41-41) will look to shock the world and defeat the Boston Celtics (61-21) in the first round of the NBA Playoffs. Are the Celtics the better team? Yes. Are these NBA Playoffs first round odds insane? Also, yes.

The Celtics have an unbelievable price of -8000 to defeat the Magic. This equates to an implied probability of 98.8%! While the Celtics are easily the more talented team, I just can’t recommend betting on them at this price.

Instead, a tough and physical defense like the Magic are the better option at +1450. The Magic will undoubtedly need breaks to go their way in this series. However, they have a defense that could give the Celtics a few headaches. The Magic lead the NBA, yielding 107.2 points per game.

Magic players that are .500 or better vs Boston:

— Paolo Banchero
— Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
— Cory Joseph
— Anthony Black
— Jonathan Isaac
— Goga Bitadze
— Jett Howard
— Tristan da Silva

Ready for Round One. pic.twitter.com/KVQ1HFGZ2A

— StatMuse (@statmuse) April 16, 2025

You have to give the Magic more respect than +1450 underdogs. They are coming off an impressive performance to bounce the Atlanta Hawks in the NBA Play-In, 120-95. Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero combine for a formidable duo who could make this series more interesting than many expect.

Although the Celtics are the clear favorites, the value is on the Magic at +1450!

Golden State Warriors vs. Houston Rockets Series Odds and Prediction

Lastly for our first round NBA betting strategy, in what I anticipate being an entertaining and tightly played series, the Golden State Warriors (48-34) and Houston Rockets (52-30) clash in the first round. The Warriors needed to go to the Play-In Tournament and beat the Memphis Grizzlies, 121-116, to advance to the playoffs.

Now, they are on the road without home court advantage against the Rockets. This series is a storyline of one team nearing their expiration date as a contender, and another that has finally exited a rebuild and in contender territory.

Are the Warriors done yet? Well, the front office thinks they have a shot, or they wouldn’t have traded for Jimmy Butler. On paper, the Warriors seemingly have the more impressive roster. Steph Curry, Draymond Green, and Butler look like a formidable trio.

In their prime, this would have been an unstoppable unit against the Rockets. However, they’re not in their prime, and the Rockets are being undervalued here. The underdogs edge out the Warriors in points per game at 114.3 compared to 113.9.

Jalen Green dropped 10 STRAIGHT PTS in 4th quarter to close out Warriors 😮‍💨🔥 pic.twitter.com/odJW8hH9Eu

— House of Highlights (@HoHighlights) April 7, 2025

Additionally, the Rockets have one of the most underrated defenses in the NBA, which also surpasses the Warriors’ production. The Rockets are fifth with an average of 109.8 points against per game, while the Warriors are eighth at 110.6 conceded. Also, they have home court advantage, and Houston is great at home with a record of 29-12!

The value of the underdog is terrific here, so consider the Rockets at +150 for your NBA first round picks!