The 2025 March Madness betting odds favored Duke for a long time, but the Blue Devils won’t be in the Championship Game! Instead, we have essentially a coin flip on Monday night between Florida and Houston.
I’ll take a look at the NCAA championship odds for the 2024-2025 title game, and break down the Florida-Houston matchup. Then, I’ll give you my Championshop Game predictions at the end of this article!
2025 NCAA Championship Game Odds and Predictions
The following men’s March Madness Championship Game odds are courtesy of Bovada:
| MARKET | ODDS | PREDICTION |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Florida -115 Houston -105 | Florida -115 |
| Spread | Florida -1 Houston +1 | Florida -1 |
| Total | Over 141 (-105) Under 141 (-115) | Over 141 (-105) |
The bookies don’t think there is much between the Gators and the Cougars heading into Monday night’s title game! The Gators are slight favorites at college basketball betting sites.
Florida is a -1 spread favorite here, and just -115 on the moneyline, giving the Gators a 53.5% implied chance to cut down the nets. Houston comes back at +1, and -105 on the moneyline, which means they have an implied win probability of 51.2%.
The over/under is set at 141 points, and the under is favored at -115. Online sportsbooks are picking a close game where going above 70 points or so would likely be enough to win.
You can find these NCAA Tournament odds at Bovada by going to Sports > Basketball > March Madness.
Florida Gators – Can Clayton Jr. Carry Gators to Title?
- W – 95-69 vs. #16 Norfolk State
- W – 77-75 vs. #8 UConn
- W – 87-71 vs. # 4 Maryland
- W – 84-79 vs. #3 Texas Tech
- W – 79-73 vs. #1 Auburn
The Gators pulled out another comeback win as they downed fellow #1 seed and SEC team, Auburn, 79-73. Walter Clayton Jr. was terrific with 34 points, his second straight game with 30 points or more after dropping 30 in the Elite 8 against Texas Tech.
Clayton Jr. is now the favorite in the Most Outstanding Player odds after Duke and Cooper Flagg were upended by Houston.
Most recent players with back-to-back 30+ point games in the Elite 8 or later:
Walter Clayton Jr.
Larry Bird (1979) pic.twitter.com/OVUUldYsWi— CBS Sports (@CBSSports) April 6, 2025
Early in the tournament, Florida was down by six points with just over nine minutes left before ending UConn’s quest for a third straight national title. They were down by nine points against Texas Tech with just over three minutes remaining, and the Gators were down by eight points at halftime against Auburn. But Clayton Jr. has been marvelous in the second half of these games, and has seen his NBA Draft stock rise.
Florida’s success is less about the stats, and more about their mental toughness. It’s not great that they find themselves trailing in these games, but they’re never out of it. Their defense hasn’t been top-tier, but the Gators get big stops when they need to go on a run. They’ve also been a terror on the boards, outrebounding all five teams along the way.
Florida is tough as nails, and they have a player in Clayton Jr. who can go toe-to-toe with anyone down the stretch. Head coach Todd Golden has done a brilliant job with the Gators after taking over in 2022, when Florida lost in the NIT first round, and they lost in the round of 64 of the NCAA Tournament last season.
Capping this season with a national title would be massive for Golden and this team, and the Gators are a deserved college basketball betting favorite, even if it’s only by a single point.
Houston Cougars – Can Kelvin Sampson Finally Win a Championship?
- W – 78-40 vs. #16 SIU Edwardsville
- W – 81-76 vs. #8 Gonzaga
- W – 62-60 vs. #4 Purdue
- W – 69-50 vs. #2 Tennessee
- W – 70-67 vs. #1 Duke
Speaking of comebacks, the Cougars pulled off one for the ages against Duke. Houston was down by nine with 3:03 remaining against the Blue Devils, but hit some big three-pointers and took advantage of some mistakes by Duke to win 70-67.
The Cougars harassed Duke into just one field goal made over the last ten minutes of the Final Four matchup!
Duke had a 92.7% chance to win with 1:26 left in the game, according to ESPN.
Houston went on an 11-1 run in the final 1:14 to fuel a comeback for the ages and send the Cougars to the National Championship 🤯 pic.twitter.com/L59KVq4F7c
— The Athletic (@TheAthletic) April 6, 2025
L.J. Cryer had 26 points to lead the Cougars, who were the best defensive team in the country all season, and locked down Duke in the final minutes of the game. Cooper Flagg had a big game and Kon Knueppel stepped up, but the Cougars shut down everyone else as no other Duke player had more than seven points.
It has been a fantastic run by head coach Kelvin Sampson, who has been to the Sweet 16, minimum, in each of the last five seasons. Sampson, who is looking for his first national title, knows his team well and has tailored their system to their talent, which is a long, athletic, aggressive defense.
They also have a great one-on-one scorer in Cryer, who was a seldom-used freshman at Baylor in 2021 when the Bears won the title.
It also helps that, like Florida, Houston is an experienced team. It showed against Duke, a team led by freshmen who, perhaps, the moment was too big for.
Five of Houston’s top seven players are upperclassmen, and a team that has been successful recently, so they know how to navigate these situations. Houston should probably be the underdogs in these NCAA title odds, but the 1-point line shows the bookies have a lot of faith in the Cougars.
NCAA Championship Prediction and Betting Picks
Like the NCAA championship odds for this game, I’m expecting a close matchup between Florida and Houston. Both of these teams play hard for 40 minutes, have plenty of experience on both sides of the ball, and don’t get flustered when the game gets tight.
With the odds so close, I prefer Florida on the moneyline at -115, and the -1 spread at -105. I’m going to stay away from the total, although I’m leaning towards a slight over, but I don’t feel good enough to recommend a wager on it.
Still, I think Florida is a more talented version of Houston, who could still win if Sampson outcoaches Golden.
But Clayton Jr. is on a roll in the late stages of March Madness, and I believe he’ll be the difference, so I’m taking Florida on the spread!
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