2024 New Hampshire Primary Predictions and Betting Odds

Despite the 2024 New Hampshire primary debate being canceled because Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is the only candidate willing to participate, the highest-ranked political betting sites have released a slew of betting odds for the New Hampshire primaries.

According to the latest New Hampshire voter data, roughly 40 percent of voters are unaffiliated with a political party in the state¹. Will this help Nikki Haley’s chances in New Hampshire or will Donald Trump march on towards victory? Head below to check out our 2024 New Hampshire presidential primary predictions and prop bets.

When Is The New Hampshire Primary?

The 2024 New Hampshire primary date is scheduled for Tuesday, January 23, 2024. According to New Hampshire state law, polls must be open for a minimum of eight hours. Dixville Notch is the only location that will hold voting at midnight.

The New Hampshire primary is referred to as an open primary. This stipulates that registered Republicans and independents can vote in the Republican primary. Meanwhile, registered Democrats and independents can vote in the Democratic primary.

There are 22 GOP delegates up for grabs in the Republican primary. However, there are no Democratic delegates in the running for the Democratic primary².

Though he can be written in, front-runner President Joe Biden will not be on the Democratic ballot. Also, New Hampshire is considered an unsanctioned primary for the Democratic Party.

Per the Democratic National Committee, state officials violated national party rules by holding the New Hampshire Democratic primary earlier than permitted³.

New Hampshire Republican Primary

The following New Hampshire Republican primary odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

Former President Donald Trump is a heavy favorite to win the 2024 New Hampshire Republican primary. At -1500 odds, Trump has an implied probability of 93.8 percent to win New Hampshire.

Gov. DeSantis has fallen off the map as we enter the 2024 election year. According to the latest 2024 New Hampshire presidential primary odds, his woes should continue.

Currently, at +15000, DeSantis has an implied probability to win the New Hampshire Republican primary of just 0.7 percent. Haley, however, is banking on independent voters to come through for her. With +600 odds to win, she has an implied probability to win of 14.3 percent.

Where To Bet On The New Hampshire Republican Primary

In recent years, online betting sites have provided an abundance of political odds for a variety of elections and events. For the top political online sportsbook with the most odds, we suggest placing your bets at BetOnline.

BetOnline is home to the most political betting odds online. In addition to odds to win elections and presidential primaries, there are political prop bets available for wagering at BetOnline. Note that BetOnline goes beyond U.S. political events and covers politics from a worldwide perspective.

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Who Wins The New Hampshire Republican Primary?

According to the latest 2024 New Hampshire presidential primary odds, Trump should win convincingly over Haley. In the first Republican primary at the Iowa Caucus, Trump won with 51 percent of the vote.

DeSantis finished second with 21.2 percent of the votes, but his 23,420 votes didn’t come close to Trump. Haley was well behind in third, with 19.1 percent of votes. Trump picked up 20 delegates to DeSantis’ nine delegates and Haley’s eight delegates⁴.

The number of independent voters in New Hampshire should give Haley a puncher’s chance at a win in the New Hampshire Republican primary, but it’s still an uphill battle.

In 2016, Trump earned 35.3 percent of the New Hampshire vote. With no competition in 2020, Trump won 85.7 percent of the vote at the New Hampshire Republican primary⁵. According to the latest major poll, Trump has a 16-point lead over Haley this year.

The Boston Globe/NBC poll discovered that Trump had 50 percent of support, with Haley trailing in second, with 34 percent of respondents backing the former South Carolina Gov. in the poll. Per the results of the poll, DeSantis is well behind, with just 5 percent of support⁶.

Unless Haley can sway all the independent voters in the state to support her, this is an improbable challenge. Independents overwhelmingly support Haley, but she will need even more than a majority of independent voters for an upset over Trump.

We have Trump’s New Hampshire primary odds pegged at around -2500, so it’s looking incredibly favorable for him. There isn’t much value at -1500 at New Hampshire betting sites, but he likely has a better chance of winning than the odds suggest.

New Hampshire Republican Primary Vote Shares

The following 2024 New Hampshire presidential primary prop bets are courtesy of BetOnline:

Ron DeSantis New Hampshire Primary Vote Share

The odd candidate out in New Hampshire is going to be DeSantis. Republicans have already made up their mind that they are backing Trump.

DeSantis likely isn’t far away from calling off his campaign and conceding his GOP nominee bid to Trump. New Hampshire should be the final death blow to DeSantis.

While Republicans will support Trump, independents, and Democrats who are switching to being independent voters for this primary are supporting Haley. They are aware that the only chance of beating Trump is to back Haley and not DeSantis in New Hampshire.

That leaves DeSantis in an impossible situation to overcome. He should garner more than 5 percent of the vote. That seems a touch too low. However, 5.8 to 6.2 percent of the vote looks more realistic.

Nikki Haley New Hampshire Primary Vote Share

Haley will garner much more respect in New Hampshire than she did in Iowa. With only 19.1 percent of the vote, Haley finished third in the Iowa primary.

As we’ve noted, Haley’s New Hampshire Republican primary strategy is to rile up independent voters against Trump. It will work to a degree, but not enough to beat Trump.

Trump could win in a landslide, but Haley can put up a solid fight behind Democrats switching from Democrat to undeclared. According to the New Hampshire Secretary of State, 4,920 people have changed their political affiliation ahead of the New Hampshire primary.

408 registered voters switched from Democrat to Republican, while an overwhelming number of 3,542 Democrats have changed their affiliation from Democrat to undeclared. All 3,542 people are eligible to vote in the New Hampshire Republican primary as an independent⁷.

That being said, 38.5 percent seems too high in favor of Haley. She’ll score roughly 35 to 37 percent of the vote, but requires a huge voter turnout to reach 39 percent.

Trump New Hampshire Republican Primary Vote Share

Will Trump win more than 54.5 percent of the vote in New Hampshire? He’s finding plenty of support in the moderate swing state, but he’s likely not going to have a landslide win.

Iowa is a state that has historically supported Trump. He dominated Iowa in 2016 and then did the same against Biden in 2020. With that in mind, 51 percent of the vote in the Iowa primaries was probably below his expectations.

Now, in New Hampshire, Trump is up against a swarm of independent voters who will auto-vote for Haley. Again, thousands of Democrats are switching as undeclared voters for the sole purpose of going against Trump.

Trump wins New Hampshire, but likely with roughly 50 percent of the vote. The 54.5 percent of the vote share in the New Hampshire Republican primary appears a touch too inflated at New Hampshire online casinos.