The next Pope odds show that there are plenty of candidates that could take the place of Pope Francis. The current Pope is having health problems, which means Vatican City is likely looking to put a succession plan in place.
I’ll examine the next Pope odds and give you my pick for whom it’ll be, along with the next papal name, and what continent they’ll be from.
Next Pope, Papal Name and Continent Predictions
| NEXT POPE OPTION | PREDICTION AND ODDS |
|---|---|
| Next Pope | Pietro Parolin (+400) |
| Next Papal Name | Francis (+125) |
| Continent of Next Pope | Europe (+150) |
You can find next Pope odds at BetUS by navigating to Sportsbook > Novelty > Next Pope, Next Pope’s Papal Name, or Next Pope Continent.
How Is the Next Pope Chosen?
There is a process to how the next Pope is chosen. A new Pope is needed when the Pope in place either resigns, or dies. The College of Cardinals then meet at the Sistine Chapel to decide and vote on whom they believe the successor should be. As of February 24, 2025, the Pope was in critical condition with early, “mild” kidney failure. Francis was elected Pope on March 13, 2013.
The cardinals have four rounds of voting, and the winning candidate requires two-thirds of the vote. Voters must be under 80 years old. The ballots are burned to create the famous “white smoke” that is dispersed when the new Pope is decided.
The College of Cardinals encapsulates all cardinals. Currently, there are 252, and 138 are eligible to vote for the next Pope. The Council of Cardinals is a group of nine that serve as the Pope’s main advisors.
Next Pope Odds, Candidates, and Prediction
| PERSON | NEXT POPE ODDS |
|---|---|
| Luis Antonio Tagle | +300 |
| Mark Ouellet | +400 |
| Pietro Parolin | +400 |
| Fridolin Ambongo Besungu | +500 |
| Francis Arinze | +500 |
| Peter Turkson | +600 |
| Peter Erdo | +600 |
| Willem Eijk | +600 |
| Konrad Krajewski | +800 |
| Angelo Scola | +800 |
| Raymond Leo Burke | +900 |
| Robert Sarah | +900 |
| Christoph Schonborn | +900 |
| Sean Patrick O’Malley | +1200 |
There are a lot of good next Pope candidates to decide from. Let’s take a look at the top four options.
Luis Antonio Tagle (+300)
Tagle is the slight favorite in these next Pope odds, and would be the first Filipino Pope if he were to be elected. At +300, the 67-year-old has an implied win probability of 25%. Similar to Pope Francis, Tagle leans more on the liberal side of the ledger, which would follow the views of the current Pope.
Tagle was promoted to the College of Cardinals in October 2012, under Pope Benedict XVI. He was also named Cardinal-Bishop in May 2020. He hasn’t had many issues since becoming a cardinal, other than differences with more conservative colleagues. But Tagle’s youth might give him an edge in the race in the next Pope odds
Mark Ouellet (+400)
Ouellet has a 20% implied win percentage, and the Vatican decided not to probe sexual-assault allegations against the Canadian in 2022. He was considered for the next Pope in 2005 and 2013, and Ouellet, who is 80, resigned from his position in January 2023. As a member of the College of Cardinals, Ouellet is committed to conservative values, including his thoughts on annulment and divorce. The more traditional side of the College of Cardinals holds Ouelette in high regard.
He still has his title and a seat at the table, but you have to wonder how Ouellet could go from retired to the Pope. Also, at 80, Ouelette is right up against the eligibility limit. For those reasons, I’m skeptical of his next Pope odds.
Pietro Parolin (+400)
Parolin is the Vatican’s Secretary of State since 2013, and is the highest-ranking cardinal who can vote in the conclave. He has been a cardinal since 2014, and prior to being Secretary of State, Parolin worked for 30 yers with the Holy See, which is the governing body of the Catholic Church. He has helped Vatican relations with China and Mexico. Parolin is also a member of the Council of Cardinals, which isn’t to be confused with the College of Cardinals.
It is said that Parolin, 70, is more central and doesn’t lean left or right. However, he has spoken out about Russian invasion of Ukraine, and claimed that, “there s a right to armed defense in the case of aggression”, speaking about anyone giving Ukraine weapons.
He is a favorite of Pope Francis, but that could go either way for him. Also, at 70, Parolin is relatively young for a Pope. He hails from Veneto, Italy, which is about 560 kilometers from Vatican City.
Fridolin Ambongo Besungu (+500)
Ambongo hails from the Congo, and the 65-year-old is extremely conservative. He has been a member of the Councle of Cardinals since 2020. Ambongo has clashed with Pope Francis on the Pope’s LGBTQ views.
In 2024, Ambongo was recorded saying in regard to the West, “it is a decadent culture, it is the cultural and moral decadance of a society”. He also said that “many things can be reproached in Africa, homosexuality is not one of them”. Ambongo has also called for Africa to be the “the future of the Church”. There have only been three African Popes, and none since the year 496.
Pope Francis has been in charge since 2013, so it’ll be interesting to see if the Vatican wants to lean more to the right. Ambongo, who has an implied win probability of 16.7%, would be happy to bring the church back to the conservative side.
Next Pope Prediction
There are many other solid candidates in the next Pope odds, but I’m going to take Pietro Parolin at +400 as my pick! He is well-liked by cardinals on both sides and prefers to use common sense to make decisions.
He has also been involved in the papacy for years now, he knows how everything works, and at 70, Parolin is fairly young for the position. He checks a lot of boxes and the odds are great, so I recommend Pietro Parolin at +400!
Next Papal Name Odds
| NAME | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Francis | +125 |
| Benedict | +300 |
| John Paul | +500 |
| Clement | +600 |
| Leo | +700 |
| John | +1000 |
| Paul | +1000 |
| Innocent/Blessed Innocent | +1000 |
| Pius | +1200 |
| Joseph/Josephus | +1200 |
| Gregory | +1400 |
Papal names are decided by the incoming Pope, which began in the sixth century. Therefore, there isn’t a lot to go on. But Francis (+125) is the favorite with a 44.5% implied win probability. Papal names going back-to-back was done by John Paul I and II in 1978, and again in 2005.
Benedict (+300), John Paul, and Clement (+600) are also in the mix at offshore sportsbooks. We’ve had just three instances of Clement, and the last was way back in 1740.
I’m recommending Francis at +125 as I think the next pope will be Parolin, and he’ll want to pay respect to the current Pope Francis. The current Pope is the first person to use that papal name and has a strong relationship with Parolin, so this is the sensible choice.
Even if a different cardinal becomes a Pope, there’s still a good probability for Francis.
Next Pope Continent Odds
| CONTINENT | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Europe | -125 |
| Asia | +300 |
| Africa | +350 |
| North America | +350 |
| Central or South America | +600 |
Europe (-125) is favored with an implied win probability of 55.6%, which makes sense. Only six Popes have come from outside Europe, and the most recent was Pope Gregory III in the year 741. Asia is next at +300, followed by Africa (+350) and North America (+400), while Central or South America (+600) bring up the rear. Pope Francis made history as the first Pope from the Americas, hailing from Argentina.
I’m leaning towards Parolin to win, and he’s from Italy, so I’m going with Europe at +150 as my next Pope continent pick. 217 of 266 Popes have come from Italy, most recently, Pope John Paul I, who held the position from August 26, 1978, to September 28, 1978, passing of a heart attack. There hasn’t been an Italian Pope since then, so it’s time to return to tradition.
Where to Bet on Next Pope Odds?
My next Pope predictions for the successor, what papal name will be used, and what continent they’re from, are as follows:
- Pietro Parolin (+400)
- Francis (+125)
- Europe (-125)
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