The next Pope odds show that there are plenty of candidates who could replace Pope Francis. The last Pope passed away after serious health problems, which means Vatican City is looking to put a succession plan in place.
I’ll examine the next Pope odds and give you my pick for whom it’ll be, along with the next papal name, and what continent they’ll be from.
Next Pope, Papal Name, and Continent Predictions
| NEXT POPE OPTION | PREDICTION AND ODDS |
|---|---|
| Next Pope | Pietro Parolin (+150, so bet on continent instead) |
| Next Papal Name | Francis (+150) |
| Continent of Next Pope | Europe (+200) |
You can find these next Pope odds at BetUS by navigating to Sportsbook > Novelty > Next Pope, Next Pope’s Papal Name, or Next Pope Continent.
If you’re located outside of the US, we recommend Bet365. The sportsbook also offers betting odds on the next Pope and other related markets.
How Is the Next Pope Chosen?
There is a process for how the next Pope is chosen. A new Pope is needed when the Pope in place either resigns or dies. The College of Cardinals then meets at the Sistine Chapel to decide and vote on whom they believe the successor should be.
On February 24, 2025, the Pope was in critical condition with early, “mild” kidney failure. After multiple complications in the next couple of months, he unfortunately passed away at the age of 88. Francis was elected Pope on March 13, 2013.
The cardinals have four rounds of voting, and the winning candidate requires two-thirds of the vote. Voters must be under 80 years old. The ballots are burned to create the famous “white smoke” that is dispersed when the new Pope is decided.
catThe College of Cardinals encapsulates all cardinals. Currently, there are 252, and 138 are eligible to vote for the next Pope. The Council of Cardinals is a group of nine that serve as the Pope’s main advisors.
Next Pope Odds, Candidates, and Prediction
| PERSON | NEXT POPE ODDS |
|---|---|
| Luis Antonio Tagle | EVEN |
| Pietro Parolin | +150 |
| Fridolin Ambongo Besungu | +500 |
| Mark Ouellet | +500 |
| Francis Arinze | +600 |
| Matteo Zupi | +600 |
| Peter Turkson | +800 |
| Peter Erdo | +800 |
| Raymond Leo Burke | +800 |
| Robert Sarah | +800 |
| Wim Eijk | +900 |
| Angelo Scola | +1000 |
| Christoph Schonborn | +1200 |
| Pierbattista Pizzaballa | +1000 |
| Kevin Farrell | +1000 |
| Wilton Daniel Gregory | +1000 |
| Angelo De Donatis | +1200 |
| Konrad Krajewski | +1200 |
| Sean Patrick O’Malley | +1600 |
There are a lot of good next Pope candidates to choose from. Let’s take a look at the top four options.
Luis Antonio Tagle (EVEN)
edTagle is the slight favorite in these next Pope odds, and would be the first Filipino Pope if he were to be elected. At EVEN odds, the 67-year-old has an implied win probability of 50%, which is up from 25% last week. Similar to Pope Francis, Tagle leans more on the liberal side of the ledger, which would follow the views of the previous Pope.
Tagle was promoted to the College of Cardinals in October 2012, under Pope Benedict XVI. He was also named Cardinal-Bishop in May 2020. He hasn’t had many issues since becoming a cardinal, other than differences with more conservative colleagues. But Tagle’s youth might give him an edge in the race in the next Pope odds.c
Pietro Parolin (+150)
Parolin is the Vatican’s Secretary of State since 2013, and is the highest-ranking cardinal who can vote in the conclave. He has been a cardinal since 2014, and prior to being Secretary of State, Parolin worked for 30 years with the Holy See, which is the governing body of the Catholic Church.
He has helped Vatican relations with China and Mexico. Parolin is also a member of the Council of Cardinals, which isn’t to be confused with the College of Cardinals.
It is said that Parolin, 70, is more central and doesn’t lean left or right. However, he has spoken out about Russian invasion of Ukraine, and claimed that, “there s a right to armed defense in the case of aggression”, speaking about anyone giving Ukraine weapons.
He was a favorite of Pope Francis, but that could go either way for him. Also, at 70, Parolin is relatively young for a Pope. He hails from Veneto, Italy, which is about 560 kilometers from Vatican City.
Fridolin Ambongo Besungu (+500)
Ambongo hails from the Congo, and the 65-year-old is extremely conservative. He has been a member of the Council of Cardinals since 2020. Ambongo has clashed with Pope Francis on the Pope’s LGBTQ views.
In 2024, Ambongo was recorded saying in regard to the West, “it is a decadent culture, it is the cultural and moral decadance of a society”. He also said that “many things can be reproached in Africa, homosexuality is not one of them”. Ambongo has also called for Africa to be the “the future of the Church”. There have only been three African Popes, and none since the year 496.
Pope Francis was in charge since 2013, so it’ll be interesting to see if the Vatican wants to lean more to the right. Ambongo, who has an implied win probability of 16.7%, would be happy to bring the church back to the conservative side.
Next Pope Prediction
There are many other solid candidates in the next Pope odds, but I believe that Pietro Parolin at +150 is the most likely option! He is well-liked by cardinals on both sides and prefers to use common sense to make decisions.
He has also been involved in the papacy for years and knows how everything works. At 70, Parolin is fairly young for the position. He checks a lot of boxes, and the odds are great, so I recommend Pietro Parolin. However, don’t bet on him at the next Pope market.
Instead, you should take the +200 available for the next Pope to be from Europe. The price is not only much higher, but it also includes multiple other candidates from that continent! I cover that market below, so keep reading to learn more!
Next Papal Name Odds
| NAME | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Francis | +150 |
| Benedict | +300 |
| John Paul | +400 |
| Leo | +600 |
| Clement | +700 |
| John | +1000 |
| Paul | +1000 |
| Joseph/Josephus | +1200 |
| Gregory | +1200 |
Papal names are decided by the incoming Pope, a tradition that began in the sixth century. Therefore, there isn’t a lot to go on. But Francis (+150) is the favorite with a 40% implied win probability. Papal names going back-to-back was done by John Paul I and II in 1978, and again in 2005.
Benedict (+300), John Paul, and Clement (+600) are also in the mix at offshore sportsbooks. We’ve had just three instances of Clement, and the last was way back in 1740.
I’m recommending Francis at +150 as I think the next pope will be Parolin, and he’ll want to pay respect to the previous Pope Francis. He was the first person to use that papal name and had a strong relationship with Parolin, so this is the sensible choice.
Even if a different cardinal becomes a Pope, there’s still a good probability for Francis.
Next Pope Continent Odds
| CONTINENT | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Asia | -250 |
| Africa | +150 |
| Europe | +200 |
| North America | +650 |
| Central or South America | +900 |
Asia (-250) is favored with an implied win probability of over 70%. However, you should know that only seven Popes have come from outside Europe. Africa (+150) is next, followed by Europe (+250) and North America (+650), while Central or South America (+690) bring up the rear. Pope Francis made history as the first Pope from the Americas, hailing from Argentina.
I’m leaning towards Parolin to win, and he’s from Italy, so I’m going with Europe at +250 as my next Pope continent pick. 217 of 266 Popes have come from Italy, most recently, Pope John Paul I, who held the position from August 26, 1978, to September 28, 1978, passing away from a heart attack.
There hasn’t been an Italian Pope since then, so it’s time to return to tradition. Either way, the odds of +200 are amazing because you get Parolin (priced at +150 individually) and multiple other candidates as a bonus.
Where to Bet on Next Pope Odds?
My next Pope predictions for the successor, what papal name will be used, and what continent they’re from, are as follows:
- Pietro Parolin (bet on the continent instead)
- Francis (+150)
- Europe (+200)
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