The NFL Betting Trends You Should Know For Week 1

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Will Salvarinas
Will Salvarinas in NFL
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The opening week of the 2023-24 NFL regular season is finally here. Below are some key betting trends for each of the Week 1 football games.

Since 2000, underdogs are 175-155-14 (53%) against the spread, and 117-225 (34%) straight up in Week 1 games, good for some solid return on your investment.

If you want to take it one step further, since 2000, double-digit underdogs are 12-7 against the spread (63.2%). It’s also helpful to back underdogs on the road, that didn’t qualify for last year’s post-season. In the Super Bowl era, these teams are 73-46-4 in this situation, good for a 61% cover rate.

A few teams fit this category in the trend previews below, and that’s certainly something to keep an eye on. You can check out the Week 1 underdogs that we’re backing this weekend.

In addition to the NFL betting trends and underdogs, we’ve also made Week 1 NFL predictions for all 16 games. Make sure to check out our entire NFL coverage before placing wagers at the top NFL betting sites.

  • Detroit is 9-1 against the spread in its last ten games
  • Kansas City has won five straight home games
  • Kansas City is 0-6 against the spread over their past three seasons as a home favorite between 3.5 to 7 points
  • Detroit is 1-5 over their past three seasons in September
  • Jared Goff is 6-0 against the spread in his last six Week 1 starts

  • The total has gone over in four of Carolina’s last five games
  • Carolina is 6-2 in their past eight games against the spread
  • The total has gone under in five of Atlanta’s last six games
  • Bryce Young will start at QB for the Panthers. Number 1 picks who start at QB are 4-21-1 straight up in their first career start
  • Panthers’ coach Frank Reich is 0-4-1 straight up and against the spread in Week 1 games as head coach
  • Houston is 4-1 against the spread in their last five games
  • The Ravens are 2-10 against the spread in their last three seasons when they’re favored between 3.5 to 9.5 points
  • Houston is 4-1 against the spread during September games over their past three seasons
  • Baltimore is 5-0 SU in their last five games when playing at home against Houston
  • The total has gone under in five of Baltimore’s last five games at home
  • The Bengals are 4-1 against the spread as a road favorite of three points or less over the past three seasons
  • Cincinnati is 5-1 against the spread in their past six games on the road
  • Cincinnati is 10-1 in its last 11 games
  • Cleveland has gone under in six of their past seven games
  • Cleveland has won five straight home games against the Bengals
  • The Jaguars are 1-6 against the spread as a favorite over their past three seasons
  • Jacksonville is 6-1 against the spread over their past seven games
  • The total has gone over in five of Indianapolis’s last six contests
  • The Colts have won their last five games when playing at home against Jacksonville
  • Trevor Lawrence is 4-14 straight up and 7-11 against the spread on the road
  • Tampa Bay is 7-2 against the spread in its last 9 games when playing Minnesota
  • Minnesota has gone over in five straight home games
  • The total has gone over in seven of Minnesota’s last eight games
  • Todd Bowles has struggled as head coach when an underdog. He was 0-4 straight up in this spot last season, and is 10-34 overall since 2016
  • The Buccaneers are 0-5 over the past three seasons as an underdog against the spread
  • The Titans are 14-7 since 1993 against NFC South divisional opponents
  • New Orleans has gone under the total in five straight games
  • As an underdog, Titans’ coach Mike Vrabel is 23-15-1 (61%) against the spread, including 22-9-1 (71%) when the spread is 3 points or higher
  • The Saints are 6-9 over their past three seasons in dome games
  • Tennessee is 4-1 in its last five games when playing on the road against New Orleans
  • The 49ers have won 12 of their past 13 games
  • Pittsburgh is 6-1 against the spread in their past seven games
  • The total has gone over in Pittsburgh’s last five games when playing against the 49ers
  • In games ranging from a spread of +3 to -3, the Steelers are 11-3 against the spread over their past three seasons
  • Pittsburgh has won and covered in three straight Week 1 contests under coach Mike Tomlin
  • The total has gone over in four of Arizona’s last five games on the road
  • Washington has played in five straight under games at home
  • Washington has won five straight over Arizona at home
  • Five of the past seven Cardinals vs. Commanders games have gone under
  • In the Commanders’ last 24 home games, the under is 18-5-1
  • Green Bay has won their last five games when playing Chicago
  • The Bears have gone over the total in eight of their past 11 games
  • The total has gone over in seven of Chicago’s last 10 games when playing at home against Green Bay
  • Chicago is 2-10 over their past three seasons against divisional opponents
  • Packers’ head coach Matt LaFleur is 13-4 (77%) against the spread as an underdog
  • Denver enters with a 5-13 record against the spread over their last three seasons in games where the line ranges from +3 to -3 points
  • Denver is 1-4 against the spread in their last five games as a home favorite of three points or less
  • Las Vegas is 5-0 on the moneyline in their last five games when playing Denver
  • Denver has gone over in five straight contests
  • Las Vegas is 10-1 against the spread in its last 11 games when playing Denver
  • The total has gone under in 10 of Denver’s last 13 games when playing Las Vegas
  • Over the last 20 years, Miami holds a 47-23 record against AFC West opponents
  • Miami is 4-8 over their past three seasons in games played on turf
  • The total has gone under in 16 of Miami’s last 18 games when playing the LA Chargers
  • Miami has lost five straight games away from home
  • Tua Tagovailoa is 0-3 against the spread all-time on the road in the Pacific Time Zone

  • New England is 3-12 on the moneyline as underdogs over their past three seasons
  • The Patriots are 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 September games
  • Philadelphia is 7-1 in their last eight games on the road
  • The total has gone over in four of New England’s last five games when playing Philadelphia
  • Eagles’ QB Jalen Hurts is just 3-9 against the spread in his career as a road favorite.
  • Hurts is 6-13 on the road against the spread in his career
  • Under coach Sean McVay, the Rams are 5-1 on the moneyline and against the spread in Week 1 action
  • The Rams are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games when playing on the road against Seattle
  • Seattle is just 1-7 against the spread over the past three seasons when listed as a home favorite between 3.5 to 7 points
  • The total has gone under in six of Seattle’s last eight games when playing LA Rams
  • The total has gone under in four of Seattle’s last five games
  • Dallas has won 11 of their past 12 games against the Giants
  • The Giants have covered the spread in five of their last six games
  • Mike McCarthy is 58-38 all-time against the spread when taking on a divisional opponent
  • The Cowboys have yet to win a Week 1 game with Mike McCarthy as head coach, as they’re 0-3 during his time
  • Dak Prescott is 13-4 on the moneyline in primetime home games
  • The total has gone over in seven of NY Giants’s last nine games when playing Dallas
  • Buffalo has won eight of their past nine games
  • The Jets have gone under the game total in five straight contests
  • The total has gone under in seven of Buffalo’s last eight games on the road
  • Since 2003, Buffalo is 14-6 against the spread in Week 1 games
  • The Jets are 2-10 on the moneyline over their past three seasons when facing divisional opponents
  • New York is 1-5 against the spread over their last six games in September

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About the Author
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Will Salvarinas
Content Writer
Will has been working with The Sports Geek since its early days back in 2010. He began as a soccer specialist providing top-notch analysis on the World Cup and European Championships. Over the years, he’s expanded his coverage to include other major sports like the NFL, NHL and MLB. As an avid sports bettor and daily fantasy player, Salvarinas is always eager to share his insight or get into a healthy debate over what bets to make.
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