The 2024 NFL Christmas Day odds for two highly anticipated AFC matchups are now on the board! On this special holiday edition, our team is here to help you make informed decisions for your best NFL Christmas Day bets for the Chiefs vs. Steelers and Ravens vs. Texans.
In addition to picks against the spread, you can find the latest betting trends, team props, and player prop bets! With this in mind, continue reading to get our free selections and complete 2024 NFL Christmas Day predictions.
NFL Christmas Day Best Bets: Chiefs vs. Steelers, Ravens vs. Texans
NFL Christmas Games Odds and Betting Lines for Week 17
The action heats up on the field this Wednesday, with two big AFC showdowns that have playoff implications on the Week 17 schedule. The Chiefs can clinch the No. 1 seed in the AFC, while the Ravens can bolster their odds to capture the AFC North title.
Who is favored to take care of business on Christmas? Check out the latest 2024 NFL Christmas Day odds for the main betting markets at NFL betting sites below:
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Odds
The following NFL Christmas odds are courtesy of Bovada:
TEAM SPREAD MONEYLINE TOTAL Kansas City Chiefs -2.5 (-110) -140 Over 43 (-110) Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 (-110) +120 Under 43 (-110)
The Kansas City Chiefs (14-1) are -140 road favorites on the moneyline against the Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5). According to the latest odds, the Chiefs have a 58.3% implied probability of beating the Steelers at Acrisure Stadium.
With the Chiefs favored by less than a field goal against the spread and an over/under of 43 points, oddsmakers expect a close, low-scoring game.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Houston Texans Betting Odds
The following NFL Christmas odds are courtesy of Bovada:
TEAM SPREAD MONEYLINE TOTAL Baltimore Ravens -3 (-130) -195 Over 47.5 (-110) Houston Texans +3 (+110) +165 Under 47.5 (-110)
In the second matchup on Christmas Day, the Baltimore Ravens (9-6) are favored to beat the Houston Texans (9-6) by a field goal at NRG Stadium. Currently, the Ravens have a 66.1% implied probability of winning the Christmas Day matchup in Houston.
Similar to the first game, sports betting sites are expecting a tightly contested AFC showdown between the Ravens and Texans.
NFL Christmas Betting Trends
There are some key betting trends to keep in mind before placing your best NFL Christmas bets! I’ve dug through the latest trends for both matchups and isolated the top details to know below:
Chiefs vs. Steelers Trends
- The Kansas City Chiefs are 7-8-0 against the spread (ATS) in 2024.
- The Kansas City Chiefs are 10-1 outright in their previous 11 games on the road.
- The Kansas City Chiefs are 5-1 against the spread (ATS) in their previous six games versus AFC North teams.
- The Kansas City Chiefs are 3-2 against the spread (ATS) in their previous five games as a road favorite.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers are 10-5-0 against the spread (ATS) in 2024.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers are 2-2 against the spread (ATS) after a loss.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers are 6-1 outright in their previous seven games versus the Kansas City Chiefs at home.
- The OVER is 4-2 in the previous six games between the Kansas City Chiefs and Pittsburgh Steelers.
Ravens vs. Texans Trends
- The Baltimore Ravens are 8-6-1 against the spread (ATS) in 2024.
- The Baltimore Ravens are 4-1 against the spread (ATS) in their previous five games versus the Houston Texans.
- The Baltimore Ravens are 5-0 outright in their previous five games versus the Houston Texans.
- The Baltimore Ravens are 5-2-0 against the spread (ATS) in their previous seven games as a road favorite.
- The Houston Texans are 6-7-2 against the spread (ATS) in 2024.
- The Houston Texans are 2-4 against the spread (ATS) in their previous six games versus the Baltimore Ravens at home.
- The Houston Texans are 3-6-1 against the spread (ATS) in their previous ten games versus AFC teams.
- The OVER is 8-1 in the Baltimore Ravens’ previous nine games on the road.
NFL Christmas Prediction and Betting Pick: Chiefs vs. Steelers
The Chiefs roll into Pittsburgh looking to apply the rubber stamp on the top overall seed in the AFC. With a win on Christmas, the Chiefs will receive the ultimate gift of the No. 1 overall seed for the playoffs.
If you happened to only watch the Chiefs on offense this year, it’d likely be perplexing as to how the Chiefs got to a record of 14-1. The Chiefs’ offense has been stuck in the mud for the greater part of this season. This has largely been a result of injuries that hit them hard to open the year.
However, the Chiefs are getting healthier at the right time, and the offense looked promising in their 27-19 win over the Houston Texans on Saturday. Most notably, WR Hollywood Brown made his debut with the Chiefs against the Texans. Brown caught five receptions for 45 yards on a pitch count.
The Chiefs eased him into the lineup, so expect him to play a bigger role against the Steelers. Suddenly, QB Patrick Mahomes’ available weapons are beginning to look much better. The offense should begin to click with Xavier Worthy, DeAndre Hopkins, and Brown on the field together. Mahomes passed for 260 yards and passed and ran for a touchdown.
MAHOMES TAKES IT HIMSELF FOR THE TD 🔥
📺: #HOUvsKC on NBC/Peacock
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/soKpySTT8L— NFL (@NFL) December 21, 2024
The 27 points was the first time the Chiefs recorded 27 or more points since a 30-27 win over the Panthers on Nov. 24! I only expect the offense to show gains as they continue to get healthier. The real advantage for the Chiefs in this one has to be their defense, though. If the offense repeats their performance from last week, they should edge away from the Steelers.
QB Russell Wilson and the Steelers thrive on the play-action after setting up the run. However, the Chiefs have conceded just 91.4 yards per game for third in the NFL against the run. Limit Steelers’ RB Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren and the rest should fall into place for the Chiefs.
I expect the Chiefs to get hot with the playoffs approaching. The offense should finally turn a page and look like their former selves on Christmas Day. Combined with an aggressive defense that doesn’t need any tweaking, the Chiefs should win and cover the point spread!
For your 2024 NFL Christmas Day best bets, consider laying the points on the Chiefs over the Steelers.
NFL Christmas Prediction and Betting Pick: Ravens vs. Texans
The Ravens aim to stay hot and put more pressure on the Steelers in the AFC North. With the Ravens and Steelers at 10-5, the door is wide open for the divisional crown. Baltimore dispatched the Steelers this past week in dominant fashion by a score of 34-17 to improve their bid fofr the title.
The offense was in good form, while the defense put the clamps down on Wilson. Baltimore leads the NFL with an average of 423.7 yards per game. They have notched 30.1 points per game for the third-best mark in the league. The offense line has improved considerably as the season has progressed.
QB Lamar Jackson has been sacked the third-fewest in the league, with just 1.5 sacks conceded per contest. Jackson’s mobility and ability to run away from pressure has a lot to do with this as well. Look for the offense to move the ball in the dome on the Texans’ defense.
Another record for @Lj_era8 #ProBowlVote pic.twitter.com/R7RWqTNYOJ
— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) December 22, 2024
Jackson has passed for 3,787 yards, 37 touchdowns, and four interceptions on 67.9% completions. He has also rushed for 765 yards and three scores on the heels of an MVP season a year ago. Jackson is going down to the wire with Buffalo Bills’ QB Josh Allen for the 2024-25 MVP award!
Meanwhile, the big mismatch that should make the biggest difference is the Texans’ offensive line versus the Ravens’ pass rush. The Ravens’ defense is in the top 3 in the league with 3.1 sacks per game. Conversely, the Texans rank near the bottom of the NFL, yielding an average of just over three sacks per contest!
QB C.J. Stroud could be an elite signal caller, but the Texans need to fix their offensive line first. Unfortunately, Santa isn’t leaving a reliable offensive line under the tree at NRG Stadium on Wednesday. Look for the Ravens to continually force pressure and cause Stroud to make mistakes on Christmas.
The Ravens are clicking on both sides of the ball at the perfect time with the playoffs around the corner. This isn’t a great matchup for the Texans’ offensive line, so expect Baltimore to continue to thrive later in the season. I suggest laying the points for your best NFL Christmas bets today!
Team NFL Christmas Prop Bets: Chiefs vs. Steelers, Ravens vs. Texans
Bovada has a variety of NFL Christmas Day prop bets for all three matchups on Wednesday. Let’s delve into my top team props:
Total Touchdowns: Kansas City Chiefs Over 2.5 (-110)
- Over 2.5 (-110)
- Under 2.5 (-120)
The Chiefs’ offense showed flashes of the past against the Texans. Mahomes worked the ball around to multiple weapons, and he also took off and ran despite playing on a bad ankle. Brown didn’t have a huge performance, but his presence on the field alone opens things up a little more for the Chiefs.
Defenses have to respect Brown’s speed, so other targets should find more room. The Chiefs have scored three touchdowns in the last two games. They beat the Browns by double digits in a 21-7 win, and then scored three more touchdowns to defeat the Texans on Saturday.
There is space in the Steelers’ secondary for Mahomes to exploit. The Steelers are 22nd in the NFL, with 220.7 passing yards allowed per game. Look for Mahomes and the Chiefs to beat the Steelers for three touchdowns, so consider this one for your best 2024 NFL Christmas props!
Winning Margin: Baltimore Ravens by 7-12 Points (+350)
MARGIN ODDS Ravens by 1-6 Points +250 Texans by 1-6 Points +340 Ravens by 7-12 Points +350 Ravens by 13-18 Points +525 Texans by 7-12 Points +625 Ravens by 19-24 Points +700
The Ravens are favored to win by three to four points, depending on the current numbers on sports betting apps. However, I expect the Ravens to eclipse that threshold for a bit of a comfortable win.
The defensive pressure on Stroud should add up to give the Ravens an advantage on the field. The Texans’ offense will be forced to match Jackson, and I don’t foresee that happening in Houston. Establishing the run would take pressure off Stroud, but it’s unlikely that the ground game will take flight against the Ravens’ front.
The Ravens lead the NFL with 83.1 yards rushing yielded per game! Baltimore’s secondary has been suspect, and Stroud should connect for a couple of deep bombs. However, the pass rush will ultimately end the Texans’ chances.
Houston will string two or three drives together, but I expect an eight or ten-point win for the Ravens. At +350 odds on a 7-12 point victory, there is some value on this Christmas prop bet in the NFL!
Best NFL Christmas Day Player Prop Bets
In addition to team props, consider adding a few Christmas player prop bets to your NFL betting strategy! There are bets from each matchup that have caught my attention, so let’s analyze our best NFL Christmas picks for player props below:
Total Passing Yards: Patrick Mahomes (KC) Over 249.5 (-115)
- Over 249.5 (-115)
- Under 249.5 (-115)
Mahomes produced a solid stat line in the win over the Texans. He completed 68.3% of his passes for 260 yards, a touchdown pass, and a rushing score.
Much has been made about how quiet the offense has been, but Mahomes has thrown a touchdown without an interception in five consecutive weeks. He is getting the ball out quickly and not giving the defense a chance to pick him off.
Patrick Mahomes was most efficient in the quick passing game in the @Chiefs' win over the Texans, finishing 17 of 19 for 155 yards and a TD on passes under 2.5 seconds.
Mahomes averaged his fastest time to throw (2.50 seconds) in a game since Week 4, 2021.
Powered by @awscloud pic.twitter.com/bbW0jBB9EN
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) December 21, 2024
Additionally, Mahomes has thrown for at least 260 yards in six of his last nine games. So, while the narrative has been about the offense struggling, Mahomes is still putting together respectable numbers. Now, with the team getting healthier, expect his production to trend upward. n
Mahomes to pass for over 249.5 yards is one of the best NFL Christmas Day player props this week!
Total Receptions: Noah Gray (KC) Over 1.5 (-150)
- Over 1.5 (-150)
- Under 1.5 (+115)
Chiefs’ TE Noah Gray has quietly been having a productive campaign as the No. 2 tight end in Kansas City. The 25-year-old has recorded 430 yards and five touchdowns on 38 receptions. He has already reached a career-high in yards and doubled his touchdown total.
NO WAY, IT'S NOAH GRAY 🙌#ProBowlVote + @PatrickMahomes#ProBowlVote + Noah Gray pic.twitter.com/m5puhvqFxx
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) December 15, 2024
Despite finishing with only one catch against the Texans, Gray has collected at least two receptions in 10 of his previous 10 games! Last week was the first time in eight games that Gray didn’t reel in a minimum of two receptions. Four of those games resulted in four receptions for the Duke product.
Look for Gray to get back on track this week with two or three receptions against the Steelers. He is well worth a look for your NFL Christmas player prop bets on Wednesday.
Total Receiving Yards: Mark Andrews (BAL) Over 35.5 (-120)
- Over 35.5 (-120)
- Under 35.5 (-110)
In the late game, another tight end has betting value to have a solid performance on Christmas. Ravens’ TE Mark Andrews has been a fixture in the Ravens’ offense since 2018. He has been Jackson’s most dependable and consistent target over the years.
Another TD for the franchise leader!!!#ProBowlVote @Mandrews_81
Tune in on FOX! pic.twitter.com/ei970WHX7S
— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) December 21, 2024
The 29-year-old veteran out of Oklahoma is having a strong campaign in 2024. Andrews enters the holidays with 551 yards and nine touchdowns, including a score in four straight games. He has logged a minimum of 36 yards receiving in four of his last six outings.
As one of Jackon’s favorite pass catchers, the total for Andrews’ receiving yard prop appears a few yards too short. Consider backing Andrews to record over 35.5 receiving yards on Dec. 25!
Total Rushing Yards: Joe Mixon (HOU) Under 65.5 (-115)
- Over 65.5 (-115)
- Under 65.5 (-110)
The Texans will want to get RB Joe Mixon rolling early in this matchup. If they can get the ground game running, Stroud won’t be under fire as much in the pocket. However, the Ravens are fully capable of stopping Mixon and the Texans’ attack on the ground.
The former Bengal has gained 967 yards and 11 touchdowns on 4.2 yards per attempt. He isn’t having a fantastic campaign, which can largely be accredited to a suspect offensive line. Note that Mixon has scampered for more than 65 yards rushing in just two of the Texans’ previous six games.
Over the last two weeks, Mixon has gained fewer than four yards per carry. In two of the last four games, he finished below the two-yards-per-carry mark. As I noted earlier, the Ravens are first in the NFL against the run.
This should be tough sledding for the Texans on the ground on Christmas, so look into the under 65.5 on Mixon’s rushing prop.
NFL Christmas Day Parlay for Week 17
To conclude your best NFL Christmas Day bets this week, consider a parlay bet offering a big payout! From the wagers currently available at Bovada for the Christmas slate, the prop bets are worth putting together on one ticket.
My NFL parlay for Christmas includes Mahomes over 249.5 yards, Andrews over 35.5 receiving yards, and Mixon rushing for under 65.5 yards. If these three bets hit, the wager pays out an impressive +541! Place a $100 wager to win $540.81 on this Christmas parlay.
- Mahomes: Over 249.5 Passing Yards
- Andrews: Over 35.5 Receiving Yards
- Mixon: Under 65.5 Rushing Yards
Christmas Games Betting Summary: Chiefs vs. Steelers, Ravens vs. Texans
The Sports Geek is excited to open the Week 17 card with our best Christmas bets for the Chiefs vs. Steelers and Ravens vs. Texans on Wednesday. While we can’t promise that you will become as wealthy as the richest NFL owners, there is big cash to be won this season on the gridiron. Also, consider checking out the Beat the Geek contest, where there are free prizes, including Amazon gift cards to win this week!
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