Aaron Rodgers was the betting favorite in the NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds before the season. Despite a less-than-auspicious start, the quarterback is still the favorite after the first month of the season.
Rodgers might still be at the top of the board, but the 2024-25 Comeback Player of the Year NFL odds for many other players have shifted. This guide will highlight the changes in CPOY odds for top contenders this season. I will also give my predictions for this award based on the latest odds.
Updated NFL Comeback Player of the Year Odds for 2024-25
Comeback Player of the Year betting is among the most popular futures markets at top NFL betting sites. We are only a month into the regular season, and the prices for this award already look radically different.
Here are the latest odds for the 2024-2025 Comeback Player of the Year, courtesy of Bovada Sportsbook.
| Player | 2024-2025 Comeback Player of the Year Odds | Team | Returning From |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | +150 | New York Jets | Achilles Tear |
| Sam Darnold | +190 | Minnesota Vikings | Poor Performance |
| Joe Burrow | +700 | Cincinnati Bengals | Wrist Surgery |
| Damar Hamlin | +800 | Buffalo Bills | Cardiac Arrest |
| Kirk Cousins | +1100 | Atlanta Falcons | Achilles Tear |
| Kyler Murray | +1400 | Arizona Cardinals | ACL Tear |
| J.K. Dobbins | +1500 | LA Chargers | Knee Surgery |
| Andy Dalton | +2200 | Carolina Panthers | Poor Performance |
| Justin Fields | +2500 | Pittsburgh Steelers | Poor Performance |
| Mason Rudolph | +2500 | Tennessee Titans | Poor Performance |
| Nick Chubb | +2800 | Cleveland Browns | Knee Injuries |
| Anthony Richardson | +3000 | Indianapolis Colts | AC Joint Sprain |
Aaron Rodgers and the Jets (2-2) have struggled this season, but the 40-year-old quarterback is still the favorite to the updated 2024-2025 NFL CPOY betting odds. Rodgers is closely followed by a former Jets quarterback, Sam Darnold (+190). Darnold has led the Vikings to a 4-0 start and can move to 5-0 with a win over Rodgers and the Jets in London.
Bills DB Damar Hamlin (+800) is the only non-quarterback in the top six. He was heavily favored to win the award last season but lost to Joe Flacco. Winning the award this year could make up for him losing the award last year.
Top Favorites in 2024-2025 NFL Comeback Player of the Year Odds
The odds for Comeback Player of the Year have quickly developed into a two-man race. Rodgers and Darnold are the only players with shorter than 2:1 odds. A total of five payers have better than 12:1 payout odds.
Aaron Rodgers (+150)
Rodgers’ Achilles’ tear stopped the Jets’ 2023 season before it started. The four-time NFL MVP opened the season as a +175 to win CPOY. Rodgers and the Jets have started slow, but he is still the +150 favorite in the latest odds for Comeback Player of the Year.
Two teams high on Davante Adams’ wishlist of places to land – if not at the very top – are the Jets and Saints, per league sources.
Adams ideally would like to play with a QB he knows. The Jets have former teammate Aaron Rodgers, and the Saints have former teammate Derek Carr. pic.twitter.com/uTBW4kJuq5
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) October 2, 2024
His standing as the CPOY favorite is mainly due to Rodgers’ reputation. This season, the QB has averaged just 212.3 passing yards per game and has been sacked 10 times. Trading for Davante Adams could help, but Rodgers also needs better play from his offensive line to make it through the season.
Rodgers himself needs to improve if the Jets are to live up to expectations. If they continue to struggle with penalties and moving the ball consistently, they could miss the playoffs. Failing to make the postseason will likely cost Rodgers CPOY as well.
Sam Darnold (+190)
Sam Darnold has also improved his 2024-2025 Comeback Player of the Year NFL odds since the start of the season. Darold was listed at +1000 odds to win CPOY before the season started. He is now available at +190 to win Comeback Player of the Year.
Darnold has led the Vikings to a 4-0 start, taking down the 49ers, Texans, and Packers in the process. If Darnold can maintain his current level of play, he could challenge for the MVP award this year, let alone the CPOY. Playing at a high level throughout the season is easier said than done, though, and there is another issue with betting on Darnold this year.
The new CPOY voting guidelines emphasize rewarding players returning from injury or illness. Darnold is a journeyman who was a healthy backup for the 49ers last year, which puts him at an disadvantage for CPOY this season.
Joe Burrow (+700)
Not every player has improved their NFL CPOY betting odds this year. Cincinnati quarterback Joe Burrow opened the season at +325 to win the award. Burrow and the Bengals have started the year 1-3, and his CPOY odds have faded to +700.
A significant reason for the Bengals’ struggle this year is their issues at wide receiver. Ja’Marr Chase missed training camp due to a contract holdout and has had to play himself into shape. Tee Higgins, who had his own contract issues this summer, has battled a hamstring injury.
Burrow and the Bengals should improve as Chase and Higgins return to form. However, their defense issues will make it challenging for Cincinnati to make the playoffs.
Damar Hamlin (+800)
Quarterbacks dominate the top of the NFL Comeback Player of the Year betting odds. The first non-quarterback listed is Bills’ DB Damar Hamlin. He was a heavy favorite for this award last season but finished second to Joe Flacco.
Damar Hamlin speaks with Maria Taylor on what it means to be back on the field as a starter with the Bills. 💙♥️ pic.twitter.com/FXgZEiVt35
— Sunday Night Football on NBC (@SNFonNBC) September 29, 2024
Hamlin has seen a significant increase in playing time this season. However, he is not making a comeback from anything that happened last year, which could prevent him from winning CPOY for the 2024-2025 season.
Kirk Cousins (+1100)
Kirk Cousins opened the season with the second-best CPOY odds at +200. The Falcons’ quarterback was my preseason NFL Comeback Player of the Year prediction.
Cousins’ first season with the Falcons has started slower than expected. Atlanta started the year 2-2, but can take control over the NFC South with a win over the Buccaneers on Thursday Night Football. Winning the division would certainly help Cousins’ CPOY case.
Best Sleepers for NFL CPOY Odds
The 2024-2025 NFL Comeback Player of the Year betting odds have shifted significantly this year. Betting on these sleepers can help you win big this season.
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Cardinals’ quarterback Kyler Murray started the season at 30-1 odds to win CPOY. Murray has played well enough for his odds to shorten to 14-1.
Arizona’s offense has had no problems scoring the ball this year, but their defense has struggled to stop opposing offenses. Team struggles could keep the Cardinals from winning games, but Murray’s individual success could be enough for him to win CPOY.
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Another sleeper who has shortened their CPOY odds is J.K. Dobbins. He opened the season at +2500 odds and is now listed at +1500 to win the award. Dobbins had a great start to his first season in LA, racking up 166 yards on 27 carries in the first two weeks.
However, in two games since, Dobbins has carried the ball 29 times for just 76 yards. If Dobbins can return to his success from the first two games, he will be a great sleeper candidate for CPOY.
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Justin Fields had longer than 30-1 odds to win CPOY before the season started. Fields was expected to start the season as a backup, but he was forced into the starting lineup due to an injury to Russell Wilson.
A big-time throw from Justin Fields to George Pickens.
I could watch this over and over. pic.twitter.com/mxlYAb0YAP
— Daniel Valente (@StatsGuyDaniel) September 30, 2024
Pittsburgh is a surprising 3-1 with Fields as the starter, and the former Bears’ quarterback is listed at +2500 to win CPOY. Fields is not returning from injury or illness, so the new guidelines could prevent him from winning the award.
2024-2025 NFL Comeback Player of the Year Prediction
The contenders for CPOY have started to separate themselves from the genuine contenders. Aaron Rodgers’ reputation has kept him as the favorite in the latest NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds. However, I think that will change soon, and I recommend betting on Sam Darnold to win the award.
Darnold and the Vikings (4-0) currently have a better record than Rodgers and the Jets (2-2). Minnesota will also have an easier time making the playoffs in the NFC. Darnold is much younger and less injury-prone than Rodgers, so I think he has a better chance of playing the full season.
