2025 Nobel Peace Prize Betting Odds and Predictions

Volodymyr Zelenskyy (+800)

Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s 2024 Nobel Peace Prize odds have regressed from being the +400 favorite to +800 over the last two weeks. He was the betting favorite since the markets opened but is now in a six-way tie! Nevertheless, Zelenskyy’s odds aren’t any worse than the others.

The former actor and comedian inherited a politically tense situation, with the Kremlin increasingly becoming concerned with Zelenskyy’s pro-West stance. Since Feb. 24, 2022, the Ukrainian president has remained an active figure in the face of Russia’s invasion.

Despite many political pundits expecting a quick and easy win for Putin, Ukraine’s 46-year-old president has stood up to Russian hostilities for more than two years. The conflict has reached a stalemate, with neither side making significant gains on the frontline.

For us in Ukraine, and all across Europe, it has always been crucial to hear the words of the then 45th President of the United States about “peace through strength.”

When this principle becomes the policy of the 47th President, both America and the entire world will undoubtedly… pic.twitter.com/qVWkLLejwd

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) November 6, 2024

Donald Trump’s win in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election complicates matters, but Zelenskyy has stated he is looking forward to working with the 47th President of the United States. There is concern in Ukraine that Trump will halt military and financial support for the war.

Zelenskyy’s commitment has been widely heralded around the world. Note that he has been the favorite to be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in past two years!

He was the clear favorite to win a year ago but came up short after closing at +400. Zelenskyy was also favored to win the award in 2023. I don’t foresee him winning in 2025, either, so I’d look elsewhere!

Ilham Tohti (+800)

Similar to Zelenskyy, Tohti’s odds to win the Nobel Peace Prize have moved in an unfavorable direction as opposed to last year. For Tohti, he is at +800 as opposed to the closing odds of +500 for the 2024 Nobel Peace Prize.

That being said, Tohti opened last year with a +1200 price, so his starting point has improved for the 2025 award.

Similar to 2024, Tohti is one of the least-known betting favorites for the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025. However, he still remains among the top contenders with the likes of Zelenskyy, Thunberg, and WHO. Despite losing this past year, he certainly deserves to be part of your shortlist of contenders again.

The Uyghur activist is currently serving a life sentence in China after being convicted of separatism in September 2014. Tohti was jailed shortly after he was awarded the Martin Ennals Award for human rights.

🇨🇳 Ilham Tohti was sentenced to life in prison in 2014 for his fearless advocacy in support of Uyghur and other Turkic people in Xinjiang.

For such bravery and commitment, Ilham received our Freedom Award in 2019, accepted by his daughter @JewherIlham. #FreeIlham #FreeThemAll pic.twitter.com/bH70EobQzR

— Freedom House (@freedomhouse) October 30, 2024

In 2019, Tohti earned a prestigious award from the European Union. He was honored with the Sakharov Prize — the highest human rights award bestowed on an individual in Europe.

Tohti has been on China’s radar for more than two decades of trying to understand and build bridges between the Uyghurs and Han Chinese ethnic groups.

The economics professor at Central University used various means to draw attention to the Uyghurs’ plight and treatment in China, including the inability to gain meaningful employment and practice their religion peacefully.

The owner and operator of the website “Uyghur Online”, Tohti educated the public about the ongoing tension between the ethnic groups in China. The website was shut down multiple times — the last being in 2014 in conjunction with his arrest.

Two U.S. lawmakers Rep. Chris Smith and Sen. Jeff Merkley were responsible for Tohti’s Nobel Peace Prize nomination in 2024. They are top members of the U.S. Congressional-Executive Commission on China, and a driving force for bringing attention to the matter in the United States.

Svitlana Tsikhanouskaya (+800)

Belarusian political activist Svitlana Tsikhanouskaya closed as one of the favorites to win in 2024, too.

Along with Zelenskyy and Tohti, her opening odds for the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize are +800. Tsikhanouskaya’s odds last year received a late push down to +500, but she and the rest of the field were upset by Hidankyo.

The staunch opponent to the President of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, Tsikhanouskaya has braved authoritarian rule in opposition to the Belarus’ government.

In 2020, Tsikhanouskaya ran as an independent candidate against Lukashenko. She quickly asserted herself as a candidate for the reigning president’s opponents in Belarus to rally behind.

With Tsikanouskaya’s husband sentenced to prison for 18 years for social unrest and inciting violence, her mission took on a new meaning.

We support #Ukraine 🇺🇦 and its fearless people.

Ukraine will win! #Belarus will be free!@ZelenskyyUa pic.twitter.com/IMWEqzTGKF

— Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya (@Tsihanouskaya) July 18, 2024

As widespread protests spread throughout Belarus, Tsikhanouskaya’s life was in serious danger. Consequently, she departed Belarus and was welcomed in Lithuania due to her well-being in danger in her home country.

In March, the European Parliament and Tsikhanouskaya signed a Letter of Intent in support of Belarus’s democratic force has been recognized by the European Parliament as the Head of the United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus.

European Parliament President Metsola stated, “Belarus will not become the forgotten corner of Europe.”

At +800, Tsikhanouskaya is worth a small consideration at this price. However, it’s worth noting that she was sadly disappointed in the voting for the 2024 Nobel Peace Prize.

For her to win this year, I think she’ll have to make the news for a groundbreaking event. That is unlikely to occur right now, so backing her is not a good bet in 2025.