If Trump is indicted before the next presidential election, a -700 favorite, then it’s likely he’ll temporarily flee the country to a non-extradition nation. Whether you think Trump should be president right now or not doesn’t change the odds, and your opportunity to win at the top political betting sites. We’re betting on the country that Trump would go to if he needs to avoid prison time in the USA and which one he will visit first.
What is Non-Extradition and Why Bet on It
Extradition is a treaty that the world uses to exchange prisoners. If a wanted person in the USA flees to England, it’s likely they’ll be captured by police and then extradited. Non-Extradition countries do not abide by this policy. If Trump leaves the USA, he will go somewhere that chooses not to extradite him back to the justice system. On the surface, the front runners are highly predictable.
Other Extradition Fleeing Political Figures
The most famous non-extradition situation is Edward Snowden, who resides in Russia to avoid justice for his whistleblowing leak on the US government. Julian Assange of Wikileaks was granted asylum by Ecuador after an attempted extradition from Sweden. If you’re concerned that Trump fleeing to a non-extradition country isn’t on the table, consider this is common practice for outsiders playing with government affairs all over the world.
The Possibility of Trump Extradition
Since indictment and extradition for Trump isn’t certain, the odds on this bet are high paying even for the top spots. You’re betting not just on the country, but that his indictment takes place at all. If he’s not under any heat from Congress and the justice system, then he has no reason to flee. Recent events show that this isn’t how things are shaking out for President Trump.
Betting on Trump’s Indictment
The current odds are -700 that Trump is indicted and +400 that he is not. We’re shocked at the odds, but it could be that bettors aren’t moving the lines on this -700 favorite. Nearly every major law analyst and professor has said that the DOJ has enough to indict as is, and are waiting for the right moment, not the right evidence. We want to stay agnostic here: you’re not betting on if you think it’s right to indict Trump, only if you think it’s going to happen. His -700 indictment bet could be a nice addition to a 2023 futures parlay.
The House January 6th Report and The DOJ Lawsuit
Trump could be indicted for his part in the events of January 6th, but Havard Laws Neil Eggleston went on record to say these reports shouldn’t affect the DOJ decision to prosecute. They’re more of a public signal.
“GAZETTE: Is the DOJ perhaps less likely to bring charges now out of a desire to appear independent and not doing the bidding of the Jan. 6 committee?
EGGLESTON: I don’t think so.”
Quote from their New York Times interview, 2022.
Most law professors and public figures see the DOJ making their move after January 6th, sometime in the first few months of the year. Almost no one thinks Trump won’t be indicted. For a safe bet, look at Donald Trump Indicted in 2023 (-700.)
Trump Non-Extradition Country Top Odds
Let’s start with a list of the top ten countries and their odds. There is a steep and massive drop off after the top countries, with countries like Ukraine nearing the top if only because of recent political relevance.
Trump Non-Extradition Country Odds Table
| Non-Extradition Country | Odds |
|---|---|
| Russia | +275 |
| Saudi Arabia | +275 |
| UAE | +300 |
| China | +700 |
| Qatar | +1000 |
| Serbia | +1600 |
| Ukraine | +2000 |
It’s surprising to see China at +700, but this may be a meme bet with theorists believing in Trump ties to China in spite of his constant critique. Ukraine can also be counted out. Zelinski is tight to the hip and was open about his belief in Trump’s relationship with Russia. During war time, he won’t allow Trump to enter. Remember that Political Extradition isn’t the same as forcible or bounty hunter extradition. Ukraine could still allow international forces to capture at extradite without doing so using Ukrainian police. At +2000, Ukraine still doesn’t pay enough to be considered a serious bet.
Which Countries Will Trump Never Go To?
Countries like Angola and Mongolia near the bottom of the list at +25000, a 250 times your bet wager. One interesting strategy is to take the bottom thirty countries and place a $1 wager on each, because Trump may be offered asylum by any country that thinks it can benefit from keeping him there. Then there are countries like Rwanda and Burma; while non-extradition they still have cases of high profile people being captured by military and insurgent groups. It’s safe to say that Trump will stay clear of war torn countries.
Why is Qatar +1000?
People don’t understand just how wealthy Qatar actually is. Trump would feel right at home in the golden buildings there. He changed his mind several times during his presidency about supporting Qatar. He eventually backed the Doha regime despite their support of Iran.
qatar architecture is wild pic.twitter.com/0Zz972tja8
— andrew (@andr3w) December 18, 2022
Trump has public friends that could set him up in Qatar, specifically Khalid bin Khalifa bin Abdulaziz Al Thani, who he’s seen working with here, offering Qatar a government contract on part of the US for an 85 billion dollar aerospace base and manufacturing contract.
Our Top Picks for Trump Non-Extradition Country
Were looking closely at Qatar +1000, the UAE +300 and Saudi Arabia +275. Overall, our top bet is Qatar, if only because the Doha manages the finances in Qatar. The UAE and Saudi Arabia are obvious choices, but overall more dangerous for Trump. Take Qatar at +1000 for a ten times return, or look at Morocco for +15000.
Trump’s Connection to Saudi Arabia
On November 14th, 2022 the Trump family trust signed a deal with Saudi Arabia for a real estate contract worth billions. Dar al Arkan is building a golfing resort in Oman and it will be financed by Trump. This deal comes on the heels of the government contract Trump sold the Saudi government to develop weapons and drones over the next decade. Our disinterest in Saudi Arabia as a non-extradition country comes from the Saudi Government’s frustrations with Trump’s involvement in Qatar. The Saudis are more than happy to kill journalists who they disagree with, and we’re betting Trump feels less safe in Saudi Arabia than he does Qatar. This rules out the +275 front runner.
Betting on Trump an the UAE
Trump has a Hotel in Dubai, UAE and he already has armed security on staff there. The UAE is a safer pick than Saudi Arabia, given his property there, and Dubai’s openness to accepting high profile indictment as par for the course. If you’re thinking the middle east makes the most sense for Trump’s escape, bet the UAE.
The Trump International Golf Club, Hotel and Tower
Outside of Dubai, the Trump International Golf Club is very active. It’s used as a political hub for Dubai, so much so that Trump has slated a Trump Tower to be built next to the course in 2025. With this $600 million in new construction starting in three years, you have to believe that Trump has more than one reason to be in the UAE.
The Trump Russia Phenomenon
Trump’s Russian ties, specifically those related to the oil and gas industry can only be speculated on. He met with Putin only once, and though multiple conspiracy theories place the two in cahoots with one another, Trump owns no Russian property. In fact, Trump owes money to Russian investors after his 1990 bankruptcy. If anything, Trump will be avoiding Russian owned places like Serbia and Russian present places like Khazactstan if the US government seizes his assets. Avoid Russia, in spite of its +275 favorite position.
Why Morocco is an Interesting Dark Horse Bet
At +15000, you’d think there is no chance that Trump ends up in Morocco, but it’s one of the most common places for rich people to head when they’re indicted. They have something called Golden Visas or Citizenship, basically paying your way in semi-permanently. In 2020 before his presidency ended, Trump did Morocco a huge solid, by formally recognizing their claim to the Western Sahara region.
Why Does this Matter for Trump
So imagine you did something that could get you in trouble, and you might end up having to run away. Right before you lose the power to do so, you do a massive favor. In both international trade and support, Trump helped the country that is known for helping rich people stay hidden. At 150 times your wager, even a small bet on Morocco is a massive return. Trump will weigh his options when the time comes, and join the safest nation. Morocco is a solid bet, and way underestimated in the odds.
Trump’s Behavior and Betting on What’s Next
If you’re a political bettor, you might be tentative to think about a Trump non-extradition bet before the indictment is 100%. With our parlay pick of the -700 indictment, we’re looking at spreading out bets on Morocco and Qatar, with the UAE as a very close third. Be thinking about bets on the Trump trial, and steer clear on Trump presidency bets, because someone can announce they’re running even from another country.
