The bookies already have odds on the 2028 presidential election in the USA, just days after this year’s race was finished! Trump won’t be around, but his running mate JD Vance is the favorite, with multiple potential candidates from both parties still available.
I share my 2028 US presidential election predictions in this blog, alongside with my expectations on the potential candidates for the post. Let’s check the 2028 US president odds first.
Early US Presidential Election 2028 Odds
The betting odds on the 2028 US presidential election are courtesy of Bovada.
| CANDIDATE | ODDS TO BECOME PRESIDENT |
|---|---|
| JD Vance | +300 |
| Gavin Newsom | +700 |
| Ron DeSantis | +900 |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | +900 |
| Josh Shapiro | +1600 |
| Kamala Harris | +1600 |
| Tulsi Gabbard | +1600 |
| Andy Beshear | +2000 |
| Donald Trump Jr. | +2000 |
| Pete Buttigieg | +2000 |
| Glenn Youngkin | +2500 |
| Nikki Haley | +2500 |
| Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. | +2500 |
| Tom Cotton | +2500 |
| Wes Moore | +2500 |
The 2028 odds reflect a similar state of the race as the early 2024 campaign. Some of the same big names in the Republican and Democratic parties are represented as relative favorites, and 2024 long shots are 2028 long shots.
The list is led by Trump’s running mate JD Vance, followed by Gavin Newsom, Ron DeSantis, and more. I’ve only included the top names on the list, but Bovada actually offers even more potential candidates.
Some of them are really crazy, such as Joe Rogan, Taylor Swift, LeBron James, and Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson!
These odds are bound to change dramatically as we draw closer to 2028. New names will likely gain prominence that can’t be foreseen four years out. I don’t recommend big wagers at this point, even if you feel confident about a candidate’s chance.
You can find the odds above if you visit Bovada > Politics > US Presidential Election 2028.
Most Likely 2028 President Candidates from the Democratic Party
While another name will probably become prominent by the 2028 presidential race there are a few early contenders for the nomination of the Democratic Party.
Gavin Newsom
The Governor of California, Gavin Newsom, is a progressive hero on the political left and a common boogeyman on the political right. Independent of opinions about him, Newsom is one of the Democratic Party’s best communicators. He more than held his own in his 2024 interview with conservative pundit, Sean Hannity.
Newsom’s faculty of speech and clear vision for the Democratic Party made him an early favorite in the 2020 primary and a potential replacement for Biden in 2024. However, conservative media has cast him as such a villain that his electoral chances mirror those of Hillary Clinton.
Josh Shapiro
Josh Shapiro is the Governor of Pennsylvania, a swing state that clinched Trump’s electoral victory in 2024. Shapiro was also on the shortlist to be Harris’ VP candidate.
Behind closed doors, Harris’ team worried that Shapiro would steal too much of the spotlight. He’s a charismatic figure and strong speaker — two qualities the Democrats have tried to replicate since Barack Obama’s presidency. Don’t be surprised to see Shapiro on the shortlist to be a presidential candidate in 2028, either.
Andy Beshear
Andy Beshear became Kentucky’s Democratic Governor during Biden’s presidency. As a Democratic governor of a red state, Beshear was able to build a Democratic vision that some of his conservative voters could get behind.
His focus on abortion rights and rural education — and an unpopular Republican opponent — got him elected in 2019. Beshear has repeated those themes even after his re-election in 2023.
Today we cut the ribbon on the new @Norton_Health West Louisville Hospital—the first in this community in more than 150 years. This facility brings essential health care services closer to home, creates more than 380 jobs and improves quality of life for West Louisville families. pic.twitter.com/2htvSSAEvG
— Governor Andy Beshear (@GovAndyBeshear) November 8, 2024
Beshear could be the figure the Democrats need to recover from their 2024 rout. It’d be natural for a new way forward to come from someone with Beshear’s background and strategic vision.
Pete Buttigieg
Pete Buttigieg is unique among Democrats. He’d frequently appear on Fox News to pitch Democratic ideas to conservative viewers and debunk false pictures of the Biden administration’s beliefs.
A late debate he did with undecided voters in the 2024 election’s final days stands out. He went toe-to-toe with sometimes hostile undecided voters who often held misleading beliefs about the Democratic platform. His calm demeanor and youth could make him the “normal” candidate who replaces Trump in 2028 the way Biden beat Trump in 2020.
Most Likely 2028 Presidential Candidates from the Republican Party
While the Democrats are a somewhat predictable party, the Republicans have an uncertain future after Trump. No one will match the hold he has over his voters. However, their grievances that keep them tied to Trump won’t go away, either. Here are his most likely successors.
JD Vance
JD Vance is Donald Trump’s Vice President and heir-apparent to the MAGA movement. Vance is a skilled debater who improved his likability and perceived competence in his debate against Tim Walz. Vance is also ideologically flexible, having been a critic of politicians, Never Trumper, and among the MAGA faithful.
His suave and flexibility make Vance a strong contender for a 2028 run. However, he’ll face the same challenge Harris did running as a Vice President. There’s only so much criticism a VP can direct at their president. The premium Trump places on loyalty may be a poison pill that curtail’s Vance’s presidential ambitions.
Ron DeSantis
Ron DeSantis was the MAGA movement’s heir apparent after Trump’s first term. He was viewed as someone who could champion the MAGA cause without Trump’s myriad personality flaws.
However, DeSantis entered the 2024 race too late, and Trump’s team planted the idea that DeSantis was “weird” before his official campaign announcement.
Trump never lost his base after he left office, so he was always the best-positioned Republican candidate to win the 2024 primaries. DeSantis could learn from his mistakes to reclaim the MAGA mantle in 2028.
Donald Trump Jr.
Donald Trump Jr. originally played a background role in Trump’s campaign. As Trump Jr. became more involved in his father’s political career after 2020, he became a MAGA darling of his own.
With strong standing in the MAGA movement and Trump’s likely desire to make his political career a family business, Trump Jr. has a good chance of becoming a serious 2028 contender.
However, establishment Republicans could be anxious to dump the radical wing of their party and rule more strategically. The 2022 midterms were a warning about the limits of MAGA candidates outside of Donald Trump. The Republican triumph in 2024 still had seven new states vote to protect abortion access.
2028 Election Predictions and Betting Pick
The Democratic Party needs a new direction in the wake of its 2024 losses. However, the Republicans will also arrive at a crossroads when its dominant figure serves his final term.
Josh Shapiro could be an interesting Democratic choice in 2028, and Donald Trump Jr. seems a likely successor to his father’s political empire. Both men harbor presidential ambitions, and both fill potential needs in their parties.
My pick for 2028 is Josh Shapiro with +1600 odds. It’s an early wager that puts money on a rising star in the Democratic Party and potential — and much-needed — new voice in Democratic leadership.
