31st SAG Awards Odds: Chalamet for Best Actor?

Best Ensemble Odds and Pick

Anora (-150) is the betting favorite to win the SAG for Best Ensemble. This affords Anora a 60% implied probability of taking home the award. It should be a toss-up between Anora and Wicked, so I don’t view much value at -150.

Instead, considering the current SAG odds, Wicked is the best bet to consider for Best Ensemble. It’s been a relatively slow start for Wicked on the awards season circuit. The film has received plenty of nominations, but didn’t shine at the Golden Globes.

That said, Wicked captured the Globe for Cinematic and Box Office Achievement. Also, Wicked had some success at the Critics Choice Awards, as director Jon M. Chu went home with the Best Director trophy. The Academy didn’t nominate him for an Oscar, much to the dismay of Wicked fans.

However, I expect Wicked to gather momentum at the SAG Awards. The Screen Actors Guild doesn’t have a vendetta against Chu like you’d think the Academy does. When you think of Anora, Mikey Madison comes to mind.

With Wicked, it’s the entire cast that gets attention, which includes a powerhouse lineup of Ariana Grande, Cynthia Erivo, Jeff Goldblum, Peter Dinklage, and Michelle Yeoh!

In this respect, Wicked for Best Ensemble is worth a look for your 2025 SAG predictions.

Best Actor Odds and Pick

Timothee Chalamet is not the betting favorite to win the Oscar for Best Actor. However, Chalamet’s portrayal of Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown is generating lots of buzz for the SAG Awards.

So, where’s the disconnect between the Academy Awards and SAG Awards? You can also include the Golden Globes because Chalamet wasn’t favored there early, and lost out to Adrien Brody of The Brutalist.

For one, the Screen Actors Guild loves Chalamet and A Complete Unknown. Note that many of the voters differ, as not all members of SAG are in the Academy. While there is certainly a crossover in winners between the two awards, it isn’t always the case.

Oscar-nominated actor Timothée Chalamet recently transformed himself into Bob Dylan for the movie "A Complete Unknown." Chalamet spent years preparing for this role, which included watching an interview Dylan did with 60 Minutes in 2004. pic.twitter.com/0nWBBkwN73

— 60 Minutes (@60Minutes) February 14, 2025

I believe that’s the situation we’re looking at here. Chalamet was excellent in the film, and I think he should receive recognition for his role in A Complete Unknown. It isn’t going to translate into a win at the Oscars, but the SAG Awards? It looks like it!

I suggest backing Chalamet to get it done, so consider him for your SAG best bets!

Best Actress Odds and Pick

The Actress in a Leading Actor category features some intriguing candidates! Pamela Anderson and Demi Moore received their first-ever SAG nominations this year. As it stands, Moore is in the driver’s seat to win the award for Best Actress.

Currently, The Substance’s leading across holds an 80% implied chance of winning the top honor! Moore already has a huge win on her resume this year. In another first, the 62-year-old Moore captured her first major award with the Golden Globe for Best Actress in January.

The SAG Awards typically play to their favorites in the voting process. Similar to Chalamet, Moore has a huge supporting cast in the Screen Actors Guild and should receive plenty of votes from her peers.

Demi Moore as Elisabeth Sparkle in THE SUBSTANCE. Nominated for Actress in a Leading Role at the 97th Oscars.

Watch the #Oscars LIVE on Sunday, March 2nd, at 7e/4p on ABC and Hulu. pic.twitter.com/1a1jw0xAZY

— The Academy (@TheAcademy) February 14, 2025

It’s not only that, though. This isn’t a sympathy vote because Moore is getting older and hasn’t been to the mountaintop before 2025. She is excellent in the horror thriller and has taken a genre that typically doesn’t get much love to the limelight during awards season.

In short, Moore for Best Actress is a solid SAG Awards pick to win. The value isn’t quite where I’d like it at -400, but Moore should prevail.

Best Supporting Actor Odds and Pick

Kieran Culkin’s portrayal of Benji Kaplan in A Real Pain has received rave reviews and cleaning up during awards season. Fresh off wins for Supporting Actor at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards, Culkin has his sights on a SAG Award.

#ARealPain star Kieran Culkin wins Best Supporting Actor at the 2025 #CriticsChoiceAwards pic.twitter.com/vL0bIqTrez

— The Hollywood Reporter (@THR) February 8, 2025

According to the latest 2025 SAG odds, Culkin has a massive 90.9% implied chance of winning Supporting Actor. He doesn’t face much competition, but oddsmakers are giving Jeremy Strong a puncher’s chance. The challenger has a 28.6% probability of winning according to the odds, which is too high for my liking.

If you want to take a bet on a long shot, Edward Norton is probably where you want to look. Strong should be in the +600 range with Norton and Yura Borisov. The way I see it, though, Culkin is already in the winner’s circle for Best Supporting Actor.

Nevertheless, I can’t recommend betting on Culkin for this SAG Awards pick at -1000 odds. There is no value in betting on such a low price, so the best course of action is to pass at online betting sites on this wager!

Best Supporting Actress Odds and Pick

After finding success at the Golden Globes, Emilia Perez is looking for more hardware at the SAG Awards. The film is nominated for three awards, including Zoe Saldana for Best Supporting Actress.

Saldana picked up the Golden Globe for Best Supporting Actress for her role in the movie. It’s a polarizing film with varying reviews, but Saldana has been impressing voters.

Having said that, I’m confident that Ariana Grande isn’t going to be shut out completely. She hasn’t won a major award yet, but I believe the SAG Awards is her best chance. It’s unlikely that Grande has the votes with the Academy, but the Screen Actors Guild could have her back!

Ariana Grande as Galinda "Glinda" Upland in WICKED. Nominated for Actress in a Supporting Role at the 97th Oscars.

Watch the #Oscars LIVE on Sunday, March 2nd, at 7e/4p on ABC and Hulu. pic.twitter.com/efuNnoju06

— The Academy (@TheAcademy) February 12, 2025

Her performance as Glinda in Wicked is certainly worthy of a prestigious honor. A SAG Award seems like the most likely route for Grande to a major trophy. It should be a close race, but at +200, Grande is a strong option for your 2025 SAG picks!